CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Put your torches away folks. Instead get out your leggins and snowpants Hyping weather since 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Hyping weather since 2003.Forecasting accurately sunce 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Forecasting accurately sunce 1972 Jesus you are old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 494 overhead, yea I will take bets on that failing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I think it's almost time for a May 1st countdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 To underscore just what Jerry was saying , places like Rumford Maine and Pfs hood highest temp over the whole 16 days on the 12Z GFS run are between 34-37 CAD city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 now this is cool, watch ice form on Moosehead Lake in Maine today, scroll down to last few hrs time lapse. ( from Tim Kelley) and the other time lapse has a great squall http://www.mooseheadlake.us/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Highs only can do so much if source region and temps aloft aren't that cool. Of course it helps, but you need some money in the bank too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Take them down, way down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Take them down, way down Don't be part of the snowpocolypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Jesus you are old. From the first album..still black and white days when men were men and Kiss was Kiss https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRF6br6WRzI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Gonna have to watch for some Sn- tonight transitioning to fzdz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Don't be part of the snowpocolypse. Mid 50s on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Mid 50s on Monday... We warm. 20s for some Tueaday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Last deep winter day til Tuesday . Another day in the 20's for highs 28.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 While the 12z EURO is a cold air for most of SNE, I think its not handling the northern stream too well. It cuts off a piece of the northern stream and then dives into the Mid Atlantic states as the 850mb low is over Cape Cod flooding the region with above freezing temperatures. I think it will be more like the GFS where the northern stream digs and phases with the southern stream energy, I think the PV gets to around Hudson Bay, Canada like the 12z GFS showed yesterday. Chance for Ocean Effect Snows, convective pattern by nature, strong lapse rates and delta ts in the 19-20C range, and that equals extreme instability with northerly winds, that would normally equal trouble, but the inversion is low, around 900mb, instead of the needed 850mb. So right now the high pressure cell is cresting too close to the Cape for a real show, but the NWS is aggressive towards this one. We will see who wins out, the high or OES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Ah, I salute you James, I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 While the 12z EURO is a cold air for most of SNE, I think its not handling the northern stream too well. It cuts off a piece of the northern stream and then dives into the Mid Atlantic states as the 850mb low is over Cape Cod flooding the region with above freezing temperatures. I think it will be more like the GFS where the northern stream digs and phases with the southern stream energy, I think the PV gets to around Hudson Bay, Canada like the 12z GFS showed yesterday. Chance for Ocean Effect Snows, convective pattern by nature, strong lapse rates and delta ts in the 19-20C range, and that equals extreme instability with northerly winds, that would normally equal trouble, but the inversion is low, around 900mb, instead of the needed 850mb. So right now the high pressure cell is cresting too close to the Cape for a real show, but the NWS is aggressive towards this one. We will see who wins out, the high or OES? Verbatim it'd be an interior elevated snow..Plenty of time to trend better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 thanks Scott, I know the odds aren't high that we get accumulating snowfall, I just wish once we get an unexpected surprise out of it like we used to in the 90s. All the stories of my dad saying that we had 21 straight days of OES where we got like 4" here and there. I wish we had those days back. I reminisced about the December 20th 2010 snow event last night and this morning by rereading the forums during those days. I loved that event. Heaviest snow second to the great Blizzard of 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Highs only can do so much if source region and temps aloft aren't that cool. Of course it helps, but you need some money in the bank too. Isn't is Scooter sneaky high time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Didnt say it wouldn't snow, or it would be a torch the whole time. As depicted, not great It's tough around here when one thinks it will be a meh period in winter. You get put on blast by some folks. I'll follow what Will and Scott are saying about the next two weeks and keep my expectations in check until it's time to let the weenie out, me thinks January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 GFS has shown an explosive 500mb trough over the Northeastern US at some point in its long range forecast for the past 6 cycles or so, to some differing degree, and positioning of the trough is troublesome at this point, but during the mid month period is when I expect changes to occur. I could be wrong, but I like the look of the GFS lately, with the exception of the 00z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 With a rising PNA index towards positive near December 7th, thinking is a strong pacific jet disturbance enters the flow across the country, which becomes amplified with positive PNA ridging across the Rockies, leading to a downstream trough over the Eastern CONUS. Then with the combination of a neutral AO and positive NAO, lack of blocking will speed up the northern jet stream, but not enough to destroy the disturbance, therefore as NAO lends to a progressive pattern, potential for a clipper type low this weekend dumping a few inches across the Midwest and Great Lakes with the potential for ocean enhancement over the Northeast US, could lend to higher snowfall totals. That is if we get the dip in the jet stream that a +PNA leads too in the end, because right now the NWS is forecasting highs in the 40s for Cape Cod, MA its more likely interior gets the snow and the coast gets wind and rain again, but again the snow potential next weekend is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 It's tough around here when one thinks it will be a meh period in winter. You get put on blast by some folks. I'll follow what Will and Scott are saying about the next two weeks and keep my expectations in check until it's time to let the weenie out, me thinks January... Right. Who really knows how it will play out. Verbatim, not a good look. All I meant. We have seen much better looks for sure. I'm fine with waiting to be honest. I hope we can set it in for the holidays. Right now I think that's probably around the time we can set in a real good pattern. Really really want to see some blocking set up. Like has been mentioned, we are getting into the time of year that even in a poor pattern we could time something right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Between December 1st and 25th, there are plenty of examples especially as you get closer to December 21st, there have been countless opportunities to see massive storms develop and dump heavy snow even on Cape Cod, MA. This time of the year temperatures air on the cooler side of the scale due to less sunlight duration during the day. Also various other environmental factors like troughs and track of storms determine what side of the temperature scale we all are on. However with favorable teleconnections i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 in place, there is a favorable period of time for a decent snowstorm and cold period upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Ugly may be a little harsh for the New England area, but it's not the greatest. Seems like we could have some storms coming up from the south thanks to split flow. I think if we have that block north of AK, we may be able to eek out ok, but it's also playing with fire as a whole with Pacific air. I probably wouldn't feel too bad if I lived in Upstate NY or NNE. The trend lately has been to take the muted ensemble look and throw in some cold shot at times which alters the prolonged mundane look that ensembles show. We will need that block north of AK to continue. Yeah, its possible I'm being a bit pessimistic. I am just not thrilled about the next month in our area. Marginal even in December for this area isn't a recipe for success. I could see PF cleaning up though to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 in place, there is a favorable period of time for a decent snowstorm and cold period upcoming.Jimmy, how much snow is left OTG in and around Buffalo from the Lake Effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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