December-winter is finally here!

[Ginx snewx]

Dear God

I love this line, LMAO.

upshot for snow/cold enthusiasts/obsessers//socially awkward internet anonymity/just flat on odd-ball types.

Trust me I am a Meterologist

[weathafella]

Bite me!  

 

I don't publish because I am routinely ignored - so go f ur self

Don't hold back john.....

But it always strikes me a sour grapes when someone pooh poohs what is thought of as ground breaking work in identifying the "smoking gun" on the cryosphere mechanisms for causing the sensible wx reaction. The man is publisher of 60 papers and his current work has enhanced winter forecasting from the long range. Believe me, I'm sure you realize that had you submitted the work and it was credible, referees would have considered it. I'm not unfamiliar with the process having served as author and referee at various times but obviously in a different scientific arena.

[CoastalWx]

You guys need to read the later blog I linked,

I did, it was good.

I also think it's important to realize that nothing is ever a lock. Meteorology has a way of humbling whenever some think they found the smoking gun. This applies to anything here.

That said, I like what we have on our side this go around.

[Damage In Tolland]

Someone is drunk and angry..it happens from time to time

[CoastalWx]

John nobody ignores you and we know you are fluent in meteorology. Sometimes when you pop in with your thoughts, several similar posts were already discussed so people may not want to engage with you as it's already been hashed out. I wouldn't take that as ignoring.

[GaWx]

It's too bad Eastern WX Forums is gone, because this was pointed out by myself and others, way back in 2005. Actually, none of this is really new in academia.  Most scholars/scientists of the science know of speculative/suppositional works going back to the 1960s in some cases depending on specific disciplines under the general arc of AO.  

 

Anyway, the key is propagation wrt to SSWs...  The warm onset/burster has to downwell in time (propagate downward), and that can be exemplified beautifully in the case of 1980 -vs- the 1985 negative AO cases.  

 

Here is 1985,

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_1985.gif

 

Here is 1980,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_1980.gif

 

and what you are looking for is annotated below in a case as recent as 2004,

 

strat_prop1.jpg

 

Notice also the counter-balancing cool anomaly that occurs shortly after the initial warm burst takes place at very high altitudes. That region goes on to over-lay the warm nodes as it weakens and down wells out in time.  

 

Once the warm node begins to interact with the tropopausal height levels within the mean PV its self, it weakens the static instability of the vortex and that can be math/physically show to stimulate a weakening/southward migration of the band of westerlies that circumvallates the vortex. Once that happens, it leaves blocking nodes behind.  

 

This establish and/or enhances the cold conveyors around the hemisphere... 

 

This whole play- takes 15 to 30 days to complete. It takes time for the propagation to descend and interact, then stimulate all these changes, and that can be shown by studying the subsequent -AO ... and noting a lag time needs to be applied to see the correlation. 

 

John,

 Thanks. This stuff really is fascinating. I'd like to ask you about your final paragraph, which I bolded. If you check out the details in my post, you'd see that I allowed for plenty of lag time... well over 15-30 days. Yet, I still found only 6 of 12 sub -2 AO months could have had an associated SSW preceding it. If anything, I was too generous on the lag time as per the last sub -2 month (March of 2013), for which I allowed ~60 days.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

John nobody ignores you and we know you are fluent in meteorology. Sometimes when you pop in with your thoughts, several similar posts were already discussed so people may not want to engage with you as it's already been hashed out. I wouldn't take that as ignoring.

 

Some of my favorite posts come from TT, I'm just about a year behind reading through them all.  

 

Is that the same Cohen that said winter was over last December because of moose farts eroding snow cover in Siberia?

[weathafella]

Some of my favorite posts come from TT, I'm just about a year behind reading through them all.  

 

Is that the same Cohen that said winter was over last December because of moose farts eroding snow cover in Siberia?

It's the same guy. He correctly predicted the positive AO but the effects were contrary to typical expectations which as Scott mentions is another humbling experience to mets.

[GaWx]

 So, ironically, the early Dec. relative mild is actually encouraging to me rather than discouraging as regards Cohen's suggestion of a cold winter 2014-5. Since it matches well with the animation, it shows that things are sort of following the plan so to speak.

[CoastalWx]

It's the same guy. He correctly predicted the positive AO but the effects were contrary to typical expectations which as Scott mentions is another humbling experience to mets.

That's the other thing. This is predicting the AO, not a cold winter in the northeast. We obviously know there is a good correlation to a -AO and colder northeast US winters, but this index is for the AO prediction. You still need some other pieces of the puzzle.

[Ginx snewx]

So, ironically, the early Dec. relative mild is actually encouraging to me rather than discouraging as regards Cohen's suggestion of a cold winter 2014-5. Since it matches well with the animation, it shows that things are sort of following the plan so to speak.

you can pretty much take our best winters and overlay that animation. There is a reason SNE winters don't usually start until Mid Dec

[78Blizzard]

I hope TT hasn't been banned.

[Ginx snewx]

I hope TT hasn't been banned.

lol, we have very very thick skin and like family a good tussle now and then stregthens the bond.

[Rainman]

I hope TT hasn't been banned.

Outstanding contributors don't get banned just for getting briefly mad once.

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip, couple of things, Eastern is still online, 2005? Dude Cohen has papers on this in 1994. Nobody ignored you, you didn't break ground though

Yeah, I did -- I brought it to the forums... 

 

And, I am aware of 1990s efforts, and no -- the propagation specifivity was only speculative back then

[weathafella]

Yeah John is a first class met and a little flare up over what people feel strongly about is fine and it does add knowledge IMHO.

[Typhoon Tip]

John,

 Thanks. This stuff really is fascinating. I'd like to ask you about your final paragraph, which I bolded. If you check out the details in my post, you'd see that I allowed for plenty of lag time... well over 15-30 days. Yet, I still found only 6 of 12 sub -2 AO months could have had an associated SSW preceding it. If anything, I was too generous on the lag time as per the last sub -2 month (March of 2013), for which I allowed ~60 days.

 

Yeah, I was agreeing with you and sending some other types of observational science to back the whole thing up. 

 

The other thing, propagation or not probably comes with a gray area, too, just as every other aspect of dynamical weather.  I mean, there really is no boundary between this and that, just that more or less typology physics are taking place.

 

I mean ... it is entirely possible that all propagation waves of downwelling warmth don't do so at the same rate/method. 

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, I did -- I brought it to the forums...

And, I am aware of 1990s efforts, and no -- the propagation specifivity was only speculative back then

John I can remember discussion in early forums before Eastern existed. Sci.geo.meteorology, WWB, ne.weather , pertinent research was often discussed despite your assertion,many were aware of the correlation.

[Typhoon Tip]

John I can remember discussion in early forums before Eastern existed. Sci.geo.meteorology, WWB, ne.weather , pertinent research was often discussed despite your assertion,many were aware of the correlation.

 

Steve, what's ur point dude.  I said myself that this schit was speculated on back in the 1960s!!!

 

Christ I am not disputing that, and YOU are not the "recognition cop" so drop it.  Geesh. 

 

I merely said that it should not be brought out as ground breaking now,, BECAUSE IT'S NOT!  damn it.

 

Everything I have read from him is< "right, I/we know"

[Ginx snewx]

Steve, what's ur point dude. I said myself that this schit was speculated on back in the 1960s!!!

Christ I am not disputing that, and YOU are not the "recognition cop" so drop it. Geesh.

I merely said that it should not be brought out as ground breaking now,, BECAUSE IT'S NOT! damn it.

Everything I have read from him is< "right, I/we know"

meh you are acting like nobody here stays abreast of current research. Your assertion that Dr Cohen was lucky stinks of jealousy,analogous to Tim Tebow saying Tom Brady was lucky because he was chosen by the Pats, no it's because of hard work and attention to detail that the creme rises to the top.

[Typhoon Tip]

Don't hold back john.....

But it always strikes me a sour grapes when someone pooh poohs what is thought of as ground breaking work in identifying the "smoking gun" on the cryosphere mechanisms for causing the sensible wx reaction. The man is publisher of 60 papers and his current work has enhanced winter forecasting from the long range. Believe me, I'm sure you realize that had you submitted the work and it was credible, referees would have considered it. I'm not unfamiliar with the process having served as author and referee at various times but obviously in a different scientific arena.

 

I can understand that; I assure you, it is not the case with me.  

 

You did strike a nerve though because I had started writing a science fiction novel (unrelated area) back in '04, and finally got around to finishing it recently. 

 

Initially I got Prometheus interested with a proposal letter, but have not heard back since delivering a few chapter to them; which strikes me as a passive "pass" -- so to speak.  

 

Failure doesn't bother me.  Thomas Edison once said when asked how it felt to fail over a 1,000 times, "I didn't fail a 1,000 times; I discovered 1,000 ways NOT to make a light bulb"  

 

Anyway, the "science" that serves as foundation for my book (in the sense of sci-fi) was recently discovered by Roger Penrose and probably true. 

So here I am yet again .. postulating something and finding my self at the margin.  

Oh well -- 

[Typhoon Tip]

meh you are acting like nobody here stays abreast of current research. Your assertion that Dr Cohen was lucky stinks of jealousy,analogous to Tim Tebow saying Tom Brady was lucky because he was chosen by the Pats, no it's because of hard work and attention to detail that the creme rises to the top.

 

I am not "acting" like anything and never insinuated anything that could rationally be perceived that way. 

 

You're reading in, and wrongly at that ... to come to a personalized conclusion. 

 

I am done with this discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

There's way too much drinking going on today.

Too much "beer confidence" and "whiskey anger"

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro brings in light snow Tuesday evening to ice overnight. Warm sector to SNH calls in trouble

Euro def colder and a bit more juiced

[Damage In Tolland]

Not a bad Euro at all today. No torches and a couple wintry possibilities 

[Go Kart Mozart]

I like the massive ocean storm shown by Euro and GFS next week.  Maybe it will start a traffic jam in the Atlantic.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well still kept full cover , but took a hit. After a mild night I expect grass by morning. Blows

[powderfreak]

Well still kept full cover , but took a hit. After a mild night I expect grass by morning. Blows

 

 

Just consider this stretch of November snow cover as bonus time.  It'll be back.

[Typhoon Tip]

I like the massive ocean storm shown by Euro and GFS next week.  Maybe it will start a traffic jam in the Atlantic.

 

That's a hybrid monster on the GFS.  Either warm air seclusion ...which usually only happens with bombs anyway, or it's warm core, because it's pinched off a midland warm thickness region at the core.  Given to the evolution of the cyclone in the GFS though, with an at first inverted trough down as far S as the 30th or even 25th parallels, then deepening prior to capture by vestigial/weak trough in the westerlies near and E of Bermuda, it's probably a hybrid.  That's the kind of gyre that sends long period 8 to 10 foot walls into the shores of New England and the MA.  

 

I lived in Rockport Mass for a year ...many years ago, and I remember a couple of times where an otherwise glass sea under a calm air and sky would have slow rollers that just reared up out of nowhere and curled their teal abyssal walls into a thunderous termination upon the shores. They would come in groups of four, one per thirty seconds to a minute; quite the long period between each swell.  Then, a few minutes might pass with little intervening wave action at all.  Meanwhile, some 300 nautical miles ENE of Bermuda there was an autumn gyre in a tempestuous whirl, wound up like a galaxy.  

 

Classic.  

 

One thing I am impressed with ... although the operational run's suggestive sensible weather ... and storm frequency over the next 7 to 10 days is relatively quiescent compared to the past couple of week's events, there are tasty impressions there. Like, Canada is cold. And there are polar highs ... two in succession, modeled outright to pass N of our latitude.  In fact, the GFS oper. taken verbatim might be down right chilly relative to the immediate appeal of the height contours S of the ~ Canadian/U.S. border.  It has a dammed signal down the I-95 corridor on a couple intervals, and one such even has a E fetch snizzle fest into SNE (see 60 hours). 

 

When there are polar highs moving N of a given region, that puts said region in enhanced baroclinic instability.  It's a good framework to find a region in, if those who reside in said region want storminess.  It's just that for the time being, the flow's challenged to provide the mechanics to use that fuel. 

[Ginx snewx]

Euro Ens are colder now