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Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm


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The bands off both lakes right now both exhibit characteristics of "strong wind bands" in that the immediate shorelines are not getting in on the intense part of the bands. Generally Oswego needs light winds to get hit very hard or else the band tends to be weak on the shorelines...I have not looked closely but there must be some strong winds in the 900mb layer because surface winds right now at KFZY/KSYR and KROC are not strong.

Yeah our 8-14" snow forecast is concerning to me since we only have 2" on the ground. Another burst is gonna move through shortly but I don't think this band is going to hold on to this part of the county

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Yeah our 8-14" snow forecast is concerning to me since we only have 2" on the ground. Another burst is gonna move through shortly but I don't think this band is going to hold on to this part of the county

 

It takes a fairly specific setup for Oswego to get slammed, even to get a solid 8-14 inch event really..and those setups seem to come in bunches over stretches of winters, they can go 5 years with only 1 major event then get 7 or 8 of them in the next 5-7 years...generally a 275-280 flow with lighter winds in somewhat quieter synoptic patterns, a noisy pattern like we have now with a strong vort and multiple shortwaves that keep swinging the flow don't work.  It seems the prime setup for them is often as a high approaches from the southwest and the PV is lifting away with a slight anticyclonic flow commencing.

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It takes a fairly specific setup for Oswego to get slammed, even to get a solid 8-14 inch event really..and those setups seem to come in bunches over stretches of winters, they can go 5 years with only 1 major event then get 7 or 8 of them in the next 5-7 years...generally a 275-280 flow with lighter winds in somewhat quieter synoptic patterns, a noisy pattern like we have now with a strong vort and multiple shortwaves that keep swinging the flow don't work. It seems the prime setup for them is often as a high approaches from the southwest and the PV is lifting away with a slight anticyclonic flow commencing.

We are far from a perfect spot for LES but we're doing ok tonight. Either way this band seems to be orientating more WNW-ENE and as long as it can stall for a few hours I should end up at least approaching 8". Right now we're close to 3" with SN/SN+

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Hopefully the flooding won't be too bad come Sunday and Monday. FWIW, Joe Bastardi thinks that much of the rain will be absorbed by the snowpack, which admittedly will be very bad for roofs and infrastructure.

I don't think there will be that much rain...the big deal will be the run off.  Dewpoints over 50 degrees with temps in the low 60s on Monday with strong southerly winds.  Classic snoweating conditions.

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Someone that knows a lot about forecasting lake effect shoot me a message. I'm more familiar with synoptic forecasting. I'm under the impression that after the warmup next week that the Buffalo area could receive another historic lake effect event next weekend. I want to book a room a day or two in advance if so and need a hand in determining the possible amounts and best location to stay. So someone familiar with lake effect message me if possible. Thanks in advance.

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Sorry I'm just posting this for posterity/cherry picking, as this picture should bring out the weenies. Nice 4 foot bullseye at my house. LOL

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

Pretty amazing seeing this as how accurate the GEM nailed this. But what's great about it is Buffalo kinda laughing like "No Way" lol. Congrats. I hope to see something like this.

I made the trip to Worcester, MA for the blizzard 2 years ago where 30" fell wiwith 70mph wind gusts but as impressive as that was it was nothing compared to this.

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Pretty amazing seeing this as how accurate the GEM nailed this. But what's great about it is Buffalo kinda laughing like "No Way" lol. Congrats. I hope to see something like this.

I made the trip to Worcester, MA for the blizzard 2 years ago where 30" fell wiwith 70mph wind gusts but as impressive as that was it was nothing compared to this.

 

That's crazy.

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Pretty amazing seeing this as how accurate the GEM nailed this. But what's great about it is Buffalo kinda laughing like "No Way" lol. Congrats. I hope to see something like this.

I made the trip to Worcester, MA for the blizzard 2 years ago where 30" fell wiwith 70mph wind gusts but as impressive as that was it was nothing compared to this.

 

Maybe the GEM brings me good luck, so I'll post the latest run for next week. LOL

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

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Meanwhile off Lake Ontario... this band is doing some good work. Visibility briefly has gone down to a couple hundred feet at SUNY Oswego, but it looks like the best totals will be further inland with this band which I expected. Hopefully we'll do well with the rest of tonight and the possible second band that may develop tomorrow evening. 

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Found these latest snowfall tallies out of BUF.

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SNOW TOTALS FROM 9PM WEDNESDAY 11/19/2014 THROUGH 10PM THURSDAY
11/20/2014

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 14.5 918 PM 11/20 COOP OBSERVER

...ERIE COUNTY...
2 NE BOSTON 37.0 755 PM 11/20 COCORAHS
WALES CENTER 37.0 345 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 W HAMBURG 36.5 457 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
EDEN 36.0 1015 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
ANGOLA 33.0 337 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
HAMBURG 31.5 452 PM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST AURORA 27.0 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
1 ESE EAST AURORA 24.5 500 PM 11/20 COCORAHS
ORCHARD PARK 23.0 600 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
ALDEN 18.5 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
2 S LANCASTER 15.0 807 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 WSW ELMA 13.8 608 PM 11/20 COCORAHS
LACKAWANNA 13.0 1000 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
CHEEKTOWAGA 12.0 900 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
4 NW ALDEN 12.0 429 PM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEE
LANCASTER 11.0 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
SARDINIA 11.0 947 PM 11/20 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
2 S AKRON 9.0 554 AM 11/20 COCORAHS
NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 8.1 425 PM 11/20 ASOS
2 N CHEEKTOWAGA 7.0 1000 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
CLARENCE 6.0 1000 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
WATERTOWN 9.0 817 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
LIVONIA 10.0 827 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
MEDINA 1.0 800 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO

...WYOMING COUNTY...
COWLESVILLE 27.0 600 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
ATTICA 23.0 200 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
3 E VARYSBURG 17.8 400 PM 11/20 COCORAHS

$

CHURCH

 

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Like everyone else who has posted in this thread already, I too want to commend the efforts of BuffaloWeather.  Have never seen a more dramatic and awe-inspiring video documentation of a winter weather event!  That "thundersnow" video is truly amazing!

I would hope I'd be this nuts on everything if I was in Buff's positron. But as you stated that Thundersnow video? I Can NOT, can Not get over that. 3 Solid hits in 2 minutes. Greatest Thundersnow video that humanity has.

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I would hope I'd be this nuts on everything if I was in Buff's positron. But as you stated that Thundersnow video? I Can NOT, can Not get over that. 3 Solid hits in 2 minutes. Greatest Thundersnow video that humanity has.

 

I believe that video is going ot be on CNN New Day at 6-8 am tomorrow. CNN has been in contact with me all night.

 

Thanks for the kind words NC!

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That serene moment when you're outside shoveling staring at 50+ inches in your driveway leaning against your just shoveled out car staring up at the low level clouds and the bright white moon...Thinking to yourself, is this a dream. Priceless.

I live for those moments. Blizzard of 2005 reading my snow board, Blizzard of 2013 watching the last models coming in with the same solution and knowing I Bagged one, shoveling on Feb. 7th, 2003, and the seconds after seeing a lightning bolt in the woods right behind my house on 12/9/05.

But YOU Sir, bets enjoy every millisecond. Because what you have trumps Everything put together. 90" with 50" on the ground and a specific scene only 90" of snow in 3 days can create.

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Death toll is up to 12 and at least 30 buildings have collapsed. With the forecast, it could go from bad to worse.

 

http://www.wben.com/Lake-Effect-Ends-Flood-Potential-Up-Next-12-Deaths/20338485

 

  • SaturdayRain likely, mainly after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
  • Saturday NightRain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
  • SundayA chance of rain, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 50. South wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
  • Sunday NightRain. Low around 48. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • MondayRain likely, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Monday NightShowers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • TuesdayA chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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Have you looked at next week at all George, seems pretty potent.

I've peeked at some models....certainly has potential....850's not as cold....lake will be colder....looks like a slightly drier airmass.  But a long lead time precludes any discussion of details.  Certainly doesn't appear to be an event that would come close to this week's festivities!! lol

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