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2014-15 winter outlook

FLO

By FLO,
in Southeastern States

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Thanks Larry. Exactly what I was looking for.

It does seem like we've turned a corner of sorts since 08-09. We can never overlook the possibility of a real stinker or 2 (ala 11-12 or 12-13) but when you look at 09-10, 10-11, and 13-14 it makes you wonder if there is an underlying trend of better winters beginning and not sandwiching a fluke in between a whole bunch of yawners. 10-11 had more potential than what the snow totals show.

We had some ok winters up this way from 03-04 through 07-08 but they definitely had a warm bias most of the time. I'm starting to like the idea of volatile winters also. Last year was a fun ride of threats off and on most of the season. There was no prolonged period of a hostile pattern. I hate winters split into 2 parts. Sitting around day after day when the proverbial pattern change is always d10 and beyond. As the weeks go by you get that sinking feeling. I'd be totally happy with short period oscillations of good and bad patterns this upcoming winter. Part of me is expecting it in some ways.

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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

Posted
Posted

Bob,

 Here are the storms since 1948 that produced what I consider major (3.5"+) that were mainly snow (not mainly IP or ZR) at KATL (most of these were also major snow producers in parts of SC/NC):

 

- 1/9-10/2011

- 2/12/2010

- 3/1/2009

- 1/2-3/2002

- 3/13/1993

- 1/18/1992

- 1/22/1987

- 3/24/1983

- 1/12-14/1982 (heaviest any one day 1/12; second storm 1/14)

- 1/9/1962

- 3/11/1960

- 2/26/1952

 

 In case you're interested, here are the four majors since 1948 at KATL that had a large portion that was IP:

- 2/12-3/2014

- 1/7/1988 (produced major SN in parts of Carolinas and perhaps some places further north in GA)

- 2/17-18/1979 (produced major SN in parts of Carolinas and perhaps some places further north in GA) (called Pres. Day I storm further north I think)

- 2/15/1958

 

 Per info gathered from a SE poster (Tony), I could see including this one as a predominantly IP major for the city though the bulk of the IP was north of the airport, the official station, which mainly had ZR:

- 3/9/1960

 

 Let me know if you find anything interesting that was common with these ATL storms from your perspective.

 

**Edited several times: As you can see, Atlanta has been on a major roll since 2009 with a whopping four major snows and/or IP's in just six winters vs. the average return period of ~3.5 years. This reminds me of the late 1970's/early 1980's as well as the snowy period of 1884-1906. So, I am wondering if the Atlanta area and much of the SE US has entered a new climo period of more frequent major snows/IP's or else this is just a passing phase that is about to end. Any ideas from Bob or anyone? Please don't say AGW. That's not allowed in this subforum lol. Consider that ATL went from 1963-1978, an overall chilly period, with none though a few were fairly close calls, the great 2/1973 snow was south of there, and there were three major ZR's. 1943-51, a somewhat warm period overall, had none and there weren't even any close calls in terms of amounts although there were a whopping four major ZR's. 1925-33 had none though there was one close call and one major ZR. 1907-16 had none though there were a few close calls and two major ZR's.

 

*Later edit: note that KATL hasn't had a major SN and/or IP in DEC since 1917!! Talk about overdue! They had four during 1880-1917. Maybe they'll finally get one soon?? Interestingly, however, Atlanta has had six major ZR's in DEC since 1917.

 

I was thinking about this exact thing about a week or so ago. We've seen major snowstorms in January, February, and March, but in the nearly 22 years I've been living in Atlanta I can't recall a December from memory where there was a major snowstorm. December 2010 is about the most measurable snow I can remember seeing during that month. Maybe December 2014 will be the December that changes this streak. (I can only hope, I would love to see another White Christmas again)  :snowing:

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

I might be in the wrong forum.  I long ago abandoned my quest to make rhyme or reason out of the weather. I no longer have any interest in what the winter of 77 might mean for the upcoming winter. Already been there and lived that.  Hell, I don't even look at models more than five days out anymore. Of course, this could be a manifestation of my age. I also don't buy green bananas because I might not get the chance to eat them.   :yikes: 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I might be in the wrong forum. I long ago abandoned my quest to make rhyme or reason out of the weather. I no longer have any interest in what the winter of 77 might mean for the upcoming winter. Already been there and lived that. Hell, I don't even look at models more than five days out anymore. Of course, this could be a manifestation of my age. I also don't buy green bananas because I might not get the chance to eat them. :yikes:

+1

Good post! Now I see why you don't look at the 7 day forecast, and just keep it at 5days!

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

I might be in the wrong forum.  I long ago abandoned my quest to make rhyme or reason out of the weather. I no longer have any interest in what the winter of 77 might mean for the upcoming winter. Already been there and lived that.  Hell, I don't even look at models more than five days out anymore. Of course, this could be a manifestation of my age. I also don't buy green bananas because I might not get the chance to eat them.   :yikes: 

 

+1

The scary thing is my grandpa told me the samething tonight when I visited my grandfolks. Of course we were talking about life but thats a little ot here.

+1

Good post! Now I see why you don't look at the 7 day forecast, and just keep it at 5days!

 

Agree.

 

Winter will do what nature has in store for it and it will do just that. No sense of over speculating on what could have or what would have. Over the years of living up north things run in patterns. Prior to 2013-14 there was 2-3 crappy winters and prior to that some decent winters. If I had to place my life savings on this I would say that winter will be present this year in the SE too. It make take some time for the cold to set in but the SST would suggest the upper level flow will continue roughly like the same all of summer and last winter. Drought conditions will likely continue for the west and northwest with the flow eventually coming out of central Canada. One thing to notice is the Atlantic is cooler than this time last year which may bode well for a -nao to eventually sustain itself unlike last year and more of el nino conditions in the pacific compare to the la nina type conditions last.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

+1

The scary thing is my grandpa told me the samething tonight when I visited my grandfolks. Of course we were talking about life but thats a little ot here.

 

Agree.

 

Winter will do what nature has in store for it and it will do just that. No sense of over speculating on what could have or what would have. Over the years of living up north things run in patterns. Prior to 2013-14 there was 2-3 crappy winters and prior to that some decent winters. If I had to place my life savings on this I would say that winter will be present this year in the SE too. It make take some time for the cold to set in but the SST would suggest the upper level flow will continue roughly like the same all of summer and last winter. Drought conditions will likely continue for the west and northwest with the flow eventually coming out of central Canada. One thing to notice is the Atlantic is cooler than this time last year which may bode well for a -nao to eventually sustain itself unlike last year and more of el nino conditions in the pacific compare to the la nina type conditions last.

One more off topic post.  I see you got your name change done.   I looked but never figured it out.  If you would, message me with the details.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

It makes the SE crew look like ridiculous weenies as well imo.  You won't see that kind of garbage in other regions. 

 

Well, maybe....but at least we don't have to live in the northeast or mid-Atlantic. :)  Trade-offs, my man!  Either way, kidding aside, the subtitle really doesn't make a lot of sense to me either.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Yay!  Now, how much for RDU?  What's your prediction this year?

 

If we don't exceed 10" on the year then we suck.  When you look at the ENSO/PDO/QBO and early indicators for blocking it looks very good, although we still got 3 months to go until we hit our prime time for snow.  3 months is a long time, things can go bad in a hurry...

 

Edit:  Also, just reading JB's update, looks like the Euro seasonal forecast looks really good for Jan/Feb.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

If we don't exceed 10" on the year then we suck.  When you look at the ENSO/PDO/QBO and early indicators for blocking it looks very good, although we still got 3 months to go until we hit our prime time for snow.  3 months is a long time, things can go bad in a hurry...

 

Edit:  Also, just reading JB's update, looks like the Euro seasonal forecast looks really good for Jan/Feb.

 

And we need a big one this winter, with at least 6 inches of snow.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

And we need a big one this winter, with at least 6 inches of snow.

Brick,

Oh yeah, that's right. Not only are you not too fond of ice, but also individual snow events have to produce HEAVY snow for you not to complain sometimes (as if the RDU area regularly gets lots of snow in a typical winter lol). That's no surprise as, of course, you are our weenie, the People's Weenie, and we love you for that....well, ok, I guess I'm getting just a bit carried away. After all, Brick is just a regular dude and not some superhuman or whatever. Sometimes I have to remind myself of that because he does seem larger than life as a result of his much deserved title. ;) ;)

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Brick,

Oh yeah, that's right. Not only are you not too fond of ice, but also individual snow events have to produce HEAVY snow for you not to complain sometimes (as if the RDU area regularly gets lots of snow in a typical winter lol). That's no surprise as, of course, you are our weenie, the People's Weenie, and we love you for that....well, ok, I guess I'm getting just a bit carried away. After all, Brick is just a regular dude and not some superhuman or whatever. Sometimes I have to remind myself of that. ;);)

 

I'll take a lot of 2 and 3 inch snow storms, too. But we have not had a big one around here in a while.

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