Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Mesoscale discussion but pretty much to our north. LWX is listed in the WFO's tho at the bottom. Wonder if another meso disco will be issued for the stuff back in WV and OH EDIT: That meso discussion is also pretty mehish except being for "watch likely" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Great... MD to our N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Most of our northern counties are included in that MD.....Harford, Northern Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Looks like some cells trying to fire along the northern VA / WV line ahead of the main stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Most of our northern counties are included in that MD.....Harford, Northern Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, etc. It's still very fringe-ish tho with only the northern parts of those counties included. They might get into the watch I suppose if one is issued from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 lol I love how we do this time and time again yet we always come back for more. Sick addiction we all have haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 All of our poor weenie eyes shift to the two little cells west of Frederick County, VA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 In Ocean City on the eastern shore, I believe I'm in a terrible spot for storms, does anyone think we could get something tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 In Ocean City on the eastern shore, I believe I'm in a terrible spot for storms, does anyone think we could get something tomorrow afternoon? I guess maybe something isolated. You're pretty far removed from the SPC slight risk tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 In Ocean City on the eastern shore, I believe I'm in a terrible spot for storms, does anyone think we could get something tomorrow afternoon? Maybe not that bad, you will get into the stronger LLJ while the rest of us don't later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I guess maybe something isolated. You're pretty far removed from the SPC slight risk tho. ?? They are still within the SPC slight risk… The 30% wind and 5% Tor threat bisects Sussex County, DE, so the heavier threat is one county north of OC (Worecester County, MD), but they still have 15%,15%,2% threat. It still remains to be seen what will form and affect that area but according to SPC they are well within the slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 ?? They are still within the SPC slight risk… The 30% wind and 5% Tor threat bisects Sussex County, DE, so the heavier threat is one county north of OC (Worecester County, MD), but they still have 15%,15%,5% threat. It still remains to be seen what will form and affect that area but according to SPC they are well within the slight risk. Was reading that he said "tomorrow afternoon" - then looked to check day 2 outlook from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Cell near Fellowsville, WV and Tunnelton, WV looks fierce. Current trajectory might slide it just S of DC but tough to say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Was reading that he said "tomorrow afternoon" - then looked to check day 2 outlook from SPC. Ohhhh my bad I misread that. I thought he was talking about tonight and was so confused to what you were talking about. My apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 STP at 3 + SBCAPE at 2000j/kg + Effective shear at 50kts + LI at -6 + Supercell Composite at 12 with light showers incoming = I live in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 STP at 3 + SBCAPE at 2000j/kg + Effective shear at 50kts + LI at -6 + Supercell Composite at 12 with light showers incoming = I live in the Mid-Atlantic. Wow those are good parameters. Doesn't look like the cap over your area is that strong either, something may erupt eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Can we just never make a severe weather threat again? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Hi res models- NAM, HRRR, ARW all whiffish south of the northern MD counties down into central VA. Not sure how much this persistent mid level cloud deck has to do with it, but either way I would be surprised to see more than a trailing end sprinkle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I see STW for VA... Frederick and Shenendoah Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Per WBAL on Twitter (my SPC hasn't updated) Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Allegany, Carroll, Frederick and Washington County in MD until 2:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 There's been a mistake with the watch, they forgot to include Baltimore and Harford County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Per WBAL on Twitter (my SPC hasn't updated) Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Allegany, Carroll, Frederick and Washington County in MD until 2:00am. Makes sense based on current radar trends and short range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Per WBAL on Twitter (my SPC hasn't updated) Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Allegany, Carroll, Frederick and Washington County in MD until 2:00am. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 655 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MARYLAND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL 200 AM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND TO 45 MILES NORTH OF WILLIAMSPORT PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW 447...WW 448... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS -- SOME SVR -- WILL AFFECT WW AREA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...BOTH FROM ONGOING PREFRONTAL CLUSTERS AND EVENTUAL NEAR-FRONTAL BAND MOVING IN FROM W-E AHEAD OF STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 FOR NEAR-TERM/INITIAL DETAILS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Man Harrisburg are getting smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Man Harrisburg are getting smashed. Looks like some 3 inch+ amounts just west of there based on radar estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The area south of Harrisburg looks like it's getting hammered with rain Lol...didn't mean to sound like an echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Night time severe always works out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Hoping that cell near Garrett County can make it over the Apps on the proper trajectory: * AT 711 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR BAYARD... AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Maryland and Pennsylvania are going to get annihilated tonight. South Virginia and northern North Carolina also look to be under the gun for storms and plenty of rain tonight. Northern Virginia should get off easy with a few passing showers, should be no more than a sixty fourth of an inch of rain at most tonight. The District will get smashed by the same storm complexes that will murder Maryland. This go around I might not mind getting only a small amount of light rain --- I am having a lot of trouble keeping up with mowing the lawn. It's a jungle out there LMAO. The grass catcher bag on the mower was so damned HEAVY that I think I might have pulled my lower back somethin' terrible - Maryland can have all the rain tonight thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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