7/27 Severe Threat Discussion and Obs

[Shane M.]

30% hail is near. Think if clouds clear fast we go up to MDT. 

 

Interesting discussion as well, still a lot of uncertainty:

 

...OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

REGION...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH STILL

MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO

DAYBREAK...PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT AND MODE OF THE

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE WEAKENING LEAD CONVECTION

APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE THAT EMERGED FROM THE

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONSOONAL REGIME. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO

SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL

AREAS BY MIDDAY...WHERE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY SUPPORT RENEWED

STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A DESTABILIZING

BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN ITS WAKE...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...IT

APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COULD BECOME A

FOCUS FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE

CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF THIS OCCURS...MOST

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND

SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL

HODOGRAPHS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

STRONG TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE PRESENT

TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY WOULD SEEM TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO

PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA.

THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ALSO DOES NOT

APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR

UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO

VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE

CONTINUING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. AGAIN THIS

LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO MID

AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME.

[EasternUSWX]

Interesting discussion as well, still a lot of uncertainty:

 

...OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

REGION...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH STILL

MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO

DAYBREAK...PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT AND MODE OF THE

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE WEAKENING LEAD CONVECTION

APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE THAT EMERGED FROM THE

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONSOONAL REGIME. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO

SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL

AREAS BY MIDDAY...WHERE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY SUPPORT RENEWED

STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A DESTABILIZING

BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN ITS WAKE...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...IT

APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COULD BECOME A

FOCUS FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE

CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF THIS OCCURS...MOST

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND

SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL

HODOGRAPHS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

STRONG TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE PRESENT

TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY WOULD SEEM TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO

PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA.

THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ALSO DOES NOT

APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR

UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO

VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE

CONTINUING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. AGAIN THIS

LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO MID

AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME.

 

Think they are worried about clouds, but they don't seem like they will stick around. All the stuff out west is falling apart. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Hope the radar trends continue. At the current rate, the MCS debris should clear our area by 7AM..

Fingers crossed I wake up to blinding sunshine and a dewpoint of 72

[EasternUSWX]

Hope the radar trends continue. At the current rate, the MCS debris should clear our area by 7AM..

Fingers crossed I wake up to blinding sunshine and a dewpoint of 72

 

What MCS? 

[StudentOfClimatology]

What MCS?

This one?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8ir.html

The sooner we clear out, the better.

[Shane M.]

Pittsburgh AFD on the pessimistic (and very uncertain side) also:

 

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS ROLLING IS LACKING
AS OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVES HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF ENERGY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER
ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

[EasternUSWX]

This one?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8ir.html

The sooner we clear out, the better.

 

Was more just a few showers and storms. Not really an mcs. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Was more just a few showers and storms. Not really an mcs.

Looks like a decaying MCS to me. Doesn't really matter what we call it, as it should dry up and be out of here shortly.

[Shane M.]

Well written AFD from LWX. Definitely a wait and see type of situation, still think it looks promising, because as mentioned by others before, I'm not convinced that cloud cover will be that substantial tomorrow morning.

 

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

[EasternUSWX]

Not sure why they are talking about clouds so much. Current SAT depiction and models showing we should have ample clearing.

 

[EasternUSWX]

[Jebman]

Sorry folks. Maryland is going to be the winnah!

In winter, Maryland gets the snow

In summer Maryland gets the severe.

The takeaway: Move your @ss to Maryland, its the best place in the Mid Atlantic for weather, ten times out of ten!

[dailylurker]

Sorry folks. Maryland is going to be the winnah!

In winter, Maryland gets the snow

In summer Maryland gets the severe.

The takeaway: Move your @ss to Maryland, its the best place in the Mid Atlantic for weather, ten times out of ten!

Lol yeah right. Headed out crabbing. Hope to see a sunrise. Definitely will have a eye (or both) on the sky today.

[Jebman]

Lol yeah right. Headed out crabbing. Hope to see a sunrise. Definitely will have a eye (or both) on the sky today.

Most of the time, when there is a rain chance or a snow chance, Maryland will get more than Virginia. The District also tends to get more precipitation over Virginia.

 

Thats just the way it is. I need to move my sorry @ss to Maryland. Maryland is one of the finest places to live in the entire Nation. Virginia sucks. Too bad I have to live here. I will never get out. I will DIE here, a broken man and despondent, in the 70 degree rain in the winter.

[dailylurker]

Lol

[arlwx]

Out to the west...

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
504 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
09Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
5 AM UPDATE...CUT WAY BACK ON CONVECTION THRU 14Z...JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THINGS RAMP UP AGAIN SUNDAY. MVFR CLOUDS/FOG THRU
12Z IN RAIN COOLED AIR FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW AND
EKN...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z AND
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 14Z...AFTER
A MINIMUM OF MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR TREND TO MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST OF AREA
BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV







 

[needbiggerboat]

Can anyone recommend best place to go see one of teh boundaries that was laid down? Want to take a selfie with one. Thanks.

[arlwx]

  LWX updated:
 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

 

.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!

 

[mappy]

Clouds

[Disc]

Cloudy and light rain.

[Eskimo Joe]

Woke up to clouds and drizzle at 5:00 am in York now its 70% blue sky. MD folks there's a lot of clearing coming your way.

[Disc]

Latest HRRR appears to have storms dropping from PA towards NOVA and discrete storms out over S WVA. Only goes to 0z (15hrs) so far and that's 'long range' on the HRRR, so take with a grain of salt.

 

[mappy]

Woke up to clouds and drizzle at 5:00 am in York now its 70% blue sky. MD folks there's a lot of clearing coming your way.

If it's clearing in York, then I should see blue sky soon

[Disc]

0z WRF from last night is complete model pr0n for C VA folks. Sorry NOVA.

 

[WoodbineWX]

Nice clearing here.

[mappy]

Clear skies, wind has picked up

[Eskimo Joe]

Full sun in York. Not a cloud in the sky...MD this is headed your way.

[WVclimo]

Sunny and muggy here. No breeze yet.

[mattie g]

Cloudy

[AmericanWxFreak]

A few mins of sun here in columbia so far, I'm not sold on too much clearing south of the northern tier counties for at least a couple of hours.