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Hurricane Arthur


CT Rain

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Really a tough call where the heaviest rain sets up today. The PRE over the Catskills/Berkshires is showing signs of fizzling and there's a ton of convection over Long Island. Now we'll see what happens as it all lifts north into New England. 

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Really a tough call where the heaviest rain sets up today. The PRE over the Catskills/Berkshires is showing signs of fizzling and there's a ton of convection over Long Island. Now we'll see what happens as it all lifts north into New England. 

 

The literature I was looking at about (idealized) PREs describes two zones... a convergence zone generally along or near a stalled front to the NW, and a zone along the max theta e advection SE of that.  It looked to me that the Catskills->Berks line was the former type, but I saw no evidence of the latter type.  If you looked at the 12z NAM evolution you could see how it wants to stream in moisture through the baroclinic zone right through CT and central MA in the next 6 hours, but radar shows no signs of it happening yet...  There are some outer bands near the south coast...  who knows, maybe something will develop, but wondering if it turns out to be more that we get a couple lashes but that's it and the rain forecasts for NYC/S. CT/ even up through this part of the valley turn out to be overdone.

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The literature I was looking at about (idealized) PREs describes two zones... a convergence zone generally along or near a stalled front to the NW, and a zone along the max theta e advection SE of that.  It looked to me that the Catskills->Berks line was the former type, but I saw no evidence of the latter type.  If you looked at the 12z NAM evolution you could see how it wants to stream in moisture through the baroclinic zone right through CT and central MA in the next 6 hours, but radar shows no signs of it happening yet...  There are some outer bands near the south coast...  who knows, maybe something will develop, but wondering if it turns out to be more that we get a couple lashes but that's it and the rain forecasts for NYC/S. CT/ even up through this part of the valley turn out to be overdone.

 

Yup there are a number of good papers on PREs and this one probably would have produced one earlier (yesterday) had the convection not overwhelmed the signal and done its own thing.

 

PREs are generally 24-36H prior to a TCs closest pass so I think we're done with "PREs" here though I'm sure we'll see some heavy rain developing from the latter mechanism you mentioned over the next few hours. I'm still not sure exactly where it will set up and what the evolution will look like. The NAM is extremely wet from HFD to ORH and BOS

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Yup there are a number of good papers on PREs and this one probably would have produced one earlier (yesterday) had the convection not overwhelmed the signal and done its own thing.

 

PREs are generally 24-36H prior to a TCs closest pass so I think we're done with "PREs" here though I'm sure we'll see some heavy rain developing from the latter mechanism you mentioned over the next few hours. I'm still not sure exactly where it will set up and what the evolution will look like. The NAM is extremely wet from HFD to ORH and BOS

 

This is a good point, if the trough had been a little less progressive and you shifted that MCS 100mi or so west I bet last night would have really produced a lot of rain with the latter mechanism, more than the convection produced.  Also, we'd probably be talking about a closer pass today :)

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The stuff today in terms of heavy rain seems like a classic low level convergence deal along and just NW of the frontal boundary related to Arthur that is across the south coast. Winds are NNW behind the front and srly ahead of it. Gradually as the wind fields just off the deck increase and back around to more SE and E, it will probably help focus the rain and shift SE as Arthur moves SE of ACK. 

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Better place to go for wind late this afternoon... Point Judith or northern part of the cape (don't want to drive too south as it's a long drive)

Lighthouse Beach in Chatham I heard is pretty good. 

The band presently hitting S Coast looks to be the outermost (spoke) pinwheel from Arthur. Expanding windfield, dry air intrusion baby steps to Xtra trop. 

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I'm wondering if the winds are fairly minimal even on the Cape with this....the latest guidance has nudged this SE...which is pretty common actually.

 

The zone of heavy rain could affect a lot of folks though.

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I'm wondering if the winds are fairly minimal even on the Cape with this....the latest guidance has nudged this SE...which is pretty common actually.

The zone of heavy rain could affect a lot of folks though.

I think ACK blows good but for most of the Cape it's pretty meh.

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I was wondering about this too. I think those traveling to the Cape might be disappointed.

 

I'm wondering if the winds are fairly minimal even on the Cape with this....the latest guidance has nudged this SE...which is pretty common actually.

 

The zone of heavy rain could affect a lot of folks though.

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