CT Rain Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Really a tough call where the heaviest rain sets up today. The PRE over the Catskills/Berkshires is showing signs of fizzling and there's a ton of convection over Long Island. Now we'll see what happens as it all lifts north into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Really a tough call where the heaviest rain sets up today. The PRE over the Catskills/Berkshires is showing signs of fizzling and there's a ton of convection over Long Island. Now we'll see what happens as it all lifts north into New England. The literature I was looking at about (idealized) PREs describes two zones... a convergence zone generally along or near a stalled front to the NW, and a zone along the max theta e advection SE of that. It looked to me that the Catskills->Berks line was the former type, but I saw no evidence of the latter type. If you looked at the 12z NAM evolution you could see how it wants to stream in moisture through the baroclinic zone right through CT and central MA in the next 6 hours, but radar shows no signs of it happening yet... There are some outer bands near the south coast... who knows, maybe something will develop, but wondering if it turns out to be more that we get a couple lashes but that's it and the rain forecasts for NYC/S. CT/ even up through this part of the valley turn out to be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 The literature I was looking at about (idealized) PREs describes two zones... a convergence zone generally along or near a stalled front to the NW, and a zone along the max theta e advection SE of that. It looked to me that the Catskills->Berks line was the former type, but I saw no evidence of the latter type. If you looked at the 12z NAM evolution you could see how it wants to stream in moisture through the baroclinic zone right through CT and central MA in the next 6 hours, but radar shows no signs of it happening yet... There are some outer bands near the south coast... who knows, maybe something will develop, but wondering if it turns out to be more that we get a couple lashes but that's it and the rain forecasts for NYC/S. CT/ even up through this part of the valley turn out to be overdone. Yup there are a number of good papers on PREs and this one probably would have produced one earlier (yesterday) had the convection not overwhelmed the signal and done its own thing. PREs are generally 24-36H prior to a TCs closest pass so I think we're done with "PREs" here though I'm sure we'll see some heavy rain developing from the latter mechanism you mentioned over the next few hours. I'm still not sure exactly where it will set up and what the evolution will look like. The NAM is extremely wet from HFD to ORH and BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Yup there are a number of good papers on PREs and this one probably would have produced one earlier (yesterday) had the convection not overwhelmed the signal and done its own thing. PREs are generally 24-36H prior to a TCs closest pass so I think we're done with "PREs" here though I'm sure we'll see some heavy rain developing from the latter mechanism you mentioned over the next few hours. I'm still not sure exactly where it will set up and what the evolution will look like. The NAM is extremely wet from HFD to ORH and BOS This is a good point, if the trough had been a little less progressive and you shifted that MCS 100mi or so west I bet last night would have really produced a lot of rain with the latter mechanism, more than the convection produced. Also, we'd probably be talking about a closer pass today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The stuff today in terms of heavy rain seems like a classic low level convergence deal along and just NW of the frontal boundary related to Arthur that is across the south coast. Winds are NNW behind the front and srly ahead of it. Gradually as the wind fields just off the deck increase and back around to more SE and E, it will probably help focus the rain and shift SE as Arthur moves SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 First storm/downpour rolled through here at around 9. Just a quick soaking and a low rumble of thunder. Also, would a Mod (CT Rain?) kindly delete this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44023-hurricane-arthur-observation-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 We're going to get a deluge in BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Been raining most of the AM here. Worst looks like SE MA and CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 New London area looks like it's getting a nice deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 sky has that island appeal, blue skies mixed with clouds , tropical downpours since about 0830 here, thunder rumbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Stuff moving right up 395 in CT looks to have some good precip rates with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Better place to go for wind late this afternoon... Point Judith or northern part of the cape (don't want to drive too south as it's a long drive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Better place to go for wind late this afternoon... Point Judith or northern part of the cape (don't want to drive too south as it's a long drive) Lighthouse Beach in Chatham I heard is pretty good. The band presently hitting S Coast looks to be the outermost (spoke) pinwheel from Arthur. Expanding windfield, dry air intrusion baby steps to Xtra trop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Anyone know what causes this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Concentric rings, fixed ranges radial to radial, constant distances apart along radials... suggests interference. Guess would be an internal source, not external. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Yeah that's messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I would enjoy going through 9 paper thin thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Had one thunderstorm this morning, now waiting for more downpours and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Watch Hill RI beachcam http://www.turnto10.com/category/281625/ocean-house?clienttype=generic&smartdevicecgbypass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Have not seen much of any rain yet Rhode island getting rocked. Wonder when and if we get our rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Have not seen much of any rain yet Rhode island getting rocked. Wonder when and if we get our rain You'll get yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Skies are black to the south and west - in front of this incoming cell . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I'm wondering if the winds are fairly minimal even on the Cape with this....the latest guidance has nudged this SE...which is pretty common actually. The zone of heavy rain could affect a lot of folks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Have not seen much of any rain yet Rhode island getting rocked. Wonder when and if we get our rainLol, I wouldn't be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 I'm wondering if the winds are fairly minimal even on the Cape with this....the latest guidance has nudged this SE...which is pretty common actually. The zone of heavy rain could affect a lot of folks though. I think ACK blows good but for most of the Cape it's pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 68/67 - Moderate to Heavy rain Thunder either overhead or just offshore since around 7:30am. Occasional downpours. 1.26 since the first thunderstorm Gusts between 20 and 25 from the NE becoming more frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I was wondering about this too. I think those traveling to the Cape might be disappointed. I'm wondering if the winds are fairly minimal even on the Cape with this....the latest guidance has nudged this SE...which is pretty common actually. The zone of heavy rain could affect a lot of folks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Pretty cool how as the S/W dives underneath SNE, it tries to hangback precip over SNE near dawn. Very similar to a wintertime deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Nantucket looks like it will get one of those deals where winds get breezy out of the NE, but then shift NNW and gust pretty darn good as the low moves by and you get pressure rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Moderate rain now here outside Springfield. Held off long enough to get lawn mowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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