PB GFI Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Upton doesn't introduce the chance of any convection and a slight chance of that until Tuesday P.M and none after that so plenty is incorrect http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html He`s correct . This was his post. "Looks like plenty of convective chances this week. The 12z GFS is painting a pretty unsettled pattern." MT HOLLY COLTS NECK . Tonight A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 64. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night A slight chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 <p> He`s correct . This was his post. "Looks like plenty of convective chances this week. The 12z GFS is painting a pretty unsettled pattern." MT HOLLY COLTS NECK . Tonight A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 64. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night A slight chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Upton is more pessimistic because the eastern half of its CWA is a convective graveyard. We don't have those same issues west of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Upton is more pessimistic because the eastern half of its CWA is a convective graveyard. We don't have those same issues west of the Hudson. even upton has given up on convection east of the hudson #theseverestruggle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Today's Highs TEB: 88NYC: 86New Brunswick: 85EWR: 85LGA: 85ISP: 85JFK: 85PHL: 84ACY: 84TTN: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Today's Highs TEB: 88 NYC: 86 New Brunswick: 85 EWR: 85 LGA: 85 ISP: 85 JFK: 85 PHL: 84 ACY: 84 TTN: 83 No signs of any 90s for the foreseeable future and probably beyond mid month. Temperatures actually will look very seasonable and it's possible this repeats how May felt like where the month is like a +1 but it actually feels cooler than normal because of the lack of extreme heat/warmer mins. Any potential heat wave this month will be confined to the last few days of June, but even that will be a stretch. It's possible we'll be lucky to even hit 90 a few times this month. I think TEB and New Brunswick are the only places that have hit 90F at least once if not only once this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 No signs of any 90s for the foreseeable future and probably beyond mid month. Temperatures actually will look very seasonable and it's possible this repeats how May felt like where the month is like a +1 but it actually feels cooler than normal because of the lack of extreme heat/warmer mins. Any potential heat wave this month will be confined to the last few days of June, but even that will be a stretch. It's possible we'll be lucky to even hit 90 a few times this month. I think TEB and New Brunswick are the only places that have hit 90F at least once if not only once this year so far. Yes so far TEB/New Brunswck are the only places to reach 90 of the major stations. I know many other places also did in NJ from posts in here, Looks like we see higher heights into the east beyond this unsettled period this week. So perhaps warmth will have a bit more bite towards the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 00z NAM is quite wet tomorrow especially West of the city and 4k is indicating potential for over an inch in spots with potential for training over NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Been raining since around 3am here with 1.03 in. so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Well model bust for this morning anyway with even the 6z gfs and nam showing very little in places that have seen over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 It's pouring in Brooklyn, 1.36 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 JFK reporting thunder with .30" so far: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KJFK Newark reporting heavy rain with 1.03" so far: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Picked up 1.20" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Well model bust for this morning anyway with even the 6z gfs and nam showing very little in places that have seen over an inch. Pretty bad. My forecast was largely dry today and instead I wake up to rain-not that much here as it was falling apart coming in...maybe 1/3 of an inch. But amazes me that we can have a 12 hr bust where someone gets an inch of unexpected rain (NJ/NY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Well model bust for this morning anyway with even the 6z gfs and nam showing very little in places that have seen over an inch. Yeah quite a bust in the opposite direction. I was surprised to wake up to thunder and heavy rain around 530 and its mostly been raining since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Well over a inch..makes up for the failed mcs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 He`s correct . This was his post. "Looks like plenty of convective chances this week. The 12z GFS is painting a pretty unsettled pattern." MT HOLLY COLTS NECK . Tonight A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 64. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night A slight chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%. when the pops reach over 40 % we will talk - maybe Friday when it reaches 50 % - no sense in getting into a pissing contest here - plus he mentioned the GFS which as mentioned in Uptons AFD this morning is suffering from feedback issues and is too wet compared to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 when the pops reach over 40 % we will talk - maybe Friday when it reaches 50 % - no sense in getting into a pissing contest here - plus he mentioned the GFS which as mentioned in Uptons AFD this morning is suffering from feedback issues and is too wet compared to other models What are you arguing exactly? Who cares about the gfs when many places received an inch or more of unexpected rainfall today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Well over a inch..makes up for the failed mcs not really-we got about an inch from that and this was the same, other round of stratiform rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 What are you arguing exactly? Who cares about the gfs when many places received an inch or more of unexpected rainfall today I am not arguing - read my post again - we will talk when the pops reach over 40 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 when the pops reach over 40 % we will talk - maybe Friday when it reaches 50 % - no sense in getting into a pissing contest here - plus he mentioned the GFS which as mentioned in Uptons AFD this morning is suffering from feedback issues and is too wet compared to other models Agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 the high res nmm didn't do a bad job and it shows another round tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 the high res nmm didn't do a bad job and it shows another round tomorrow morning I was going to say that the NAM did excellent with this threat. The 00z 4k NAM had well over an inch in certain spots. It can be overdone a lot of times but this time it scored. Only 0.77" in my backyard but a lot of that fell in a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 I notice that in Upton's AFD's they rarely mention the HRRR or other meso's. Do they look at these models at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 1.86" on the day at EWR, about .25" from the record and the wettest day since the April 30th deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 1.81 here... looks to be just about done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 1.86" on the day at EWR, about .25" from the record and the wettest day since the April 30th deluge. NYC up to 1.44" as well. LGA is 1.06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Is it going to clear up today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 The 12z NAM has some activity developing this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Is it going to clear up today? It looks to be fairly socked in to the west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 It looks to be fairly socked in to the west of us. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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