Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Will the one doom and gloomer be posting about rain and cool next week our days of cool are mostly over now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Will the one doom and gloomer be posting about rain and cool next week Cool is done relatively speaking, temps both highs and lows should be at or over 60F 95% of the time until late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Today was top 5 all year. Spent a great Birthday golfing down the shore. Picture perfect day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Do you folks see the back door days of Tuesday 6/10, and Wednesday 6/11 in the upper 50's, or as high as the upper 60's with those forecasted 14 Celsius 925 temps? Will this be broken mostly cloudy to overcast , or complete stratus overcast on your judgment? I wonder if we get some true low end heat e.g. upper 80's + in here after day 6. ECMWF sniffing out heat chance on 00Z 6/7/14 run. Starting to remind me of the 1994 June heat and severe in the 6/13 to 6/19 1994 year. I bet we get one 91-95 degree day around 6/14-6/16. Just hunch of heat expansion and a possible heat push coming in better heat producing pattern here. ECMWF pushing 13-17 C 850's in long range, on a model, that sometimes dives Nova Scotia toughing and BDCFs in the long range sometimes too aggressive. Low end heat, not big heat signal yet.... but enough to bring out the big tall tees and the baggy big shorts in NYC. The Galaxy Harvic hip hop urban tees start at 2X and go to 8X. Wow that's big !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 7, 2014 Author Share Posted June 7, 2014 June is ready to turn warmer and wetter in the longer range - above normal temps and above normal precip http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 June is ready to turn warmer and wetter in the longer range - above normal temps and above normal precip http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Generally above normal temps with no heat waves in sight. NEW YORK CITY-LAGUARDIA KLGA GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/07/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10| WED 11| THU 12| FRI 13| SAT 14 CLIMO X/N 82| 66 86| 66 78| 67 84| 66 80| 64 81| 66 82| 69 85 62 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 7, 2014 Author Share Posted June 7, 2014 Generally above normal temps with no heat waves in sight. NEW YORK CITY-LAGUARDIA KLGA GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/07/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10| WED 11| THU 12| FRI 13| SAT 14 CLIMO X/N 82| 66 86| 66 78| 67 84| 66 80| 64 81| 66 82| 69 85 62 79 we don't need the above normal precip - the normal mosquito outbreak has not gotten out of control yet and the reservoirs are close to full capacity. We also don't need excessive heat because right now we are in an energy crisis because the power plants and grid are having a difficult time meeting energy demands - we almost had a widespread blackout during the frigid temps in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 we don't need the above normal precip - the normal mosquito outbreak has not gotten out of control yet and the reservoirs are close to full capacity. We also don't need excessive heat because right now we are in an energy crisis because the power plants and grid are having a difficult time meeting energy demands - we almost had a widespread blackout during the frigid temps in January The good news is that the heaviest rains are occurring over the Southern-Central Plains which is easing the drought there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 I'd be a bit worried if I was headed for Florida or the Bahamas next week but hey, that's the risk you always take this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 The good news is that the heaviest rains are occurring over the Southern-Central Plains which is easing the drought there. gfs_namer_192_precip_ptot.gif 20140603_usdm_home.png Texas has received a lot of relief the past several weeks and that trend looks to continue. As far as our sensible weather goes, it's a wet period east of the Rockies with a slow stagnent pattern in place. Odds are it won't be days of synoptic rain but it won't be sunny either. I could do without any major heat waves right through the beginning of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 7, 2014 Author Share Posted June 7, 2014 I'd be a bit worried if I was headed for Florida or the Bahamas next week but hey, that's the risk you always take this time of year. FLA is way overdue for a hurricane the last one was Wilma in 2005 - since then just a couple tropical storms http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 I do think our chance at 90 will increase significantly past mid month and not only because of climo. Looks like we might lose some of that blocking influence and get the jet stream further north promoting more heat coming in from the SW. I'm gonna take a stab at this and say our first heat wave arrives June 24-26 give or a day a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 I do think our chance at 90 will increase significantly past mid month and not only because of climo. Looks like we might lose some of that blocking influence and get the jet stream further north promoting more heat coming in from the SW. I'm gonna take a stab at this and say our first heat wave arrives June 24-26 give or a day a couple days. Where do you see that? I see nothing but more signs of blocking continuing right through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Where do you see that? I see nothing but more signs of blocking continuing right through the end of the month. A combination of a more negative NAO along with the jet stream naturally climbing further north has often tended to promote heat for us in the past. It's common negative influence (-NAO) for us diminishes substantially in the summer. I don't think the blocking will completely go away but it's effects will lessen and we've already been above normal even with blocking for over a month now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 most of the coming week looks pretty humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 A combination of a more negative NAO along with the jet stream naturally climbing further north has often tended to promote heat for us in the past. It's common negative influence (-NAO) for us diminishes substantially in the summer. I don't think the blocking will completely go away but it's effects will lessen and we've already been above normal even with blocking for over a month now.Blocky doesn't mean cold, it means slow stagnent patterns. The upcoming pattern looks warm, humid and wet and that's been well advertised now for about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Looks like plenty of convective chances this week. The 12z GFS is painting a pretty unsettled pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Another truly terrific weekend shaping up weather-wise. Blue skies - nothing but blue skies. - Lets Go Rangers... 12 PM Roundup NYC: 76 EWR: 77 LGA: 75 JFK: 77 New Brunswick: 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Another truly terrific weekend shaping up weather-wise. Blue skies - nothing but blue skies. - Lets Go Rangers... 12 PM Roundup NYC: 76 EWR: 77 LGA: 75 JFK: 77 New Brunswick: 67 Not sure that 67 at New Brunswick was correct unless you meant 76. Currently around 80 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Another incredible day. This stretch of weather has been pretty special. 100% chance of gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Not sure that 67 at New Brunswick was correct unless you meant 76. Currently around 80 there. Yeah rdt it was a type New Brunswick hit 84 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Todays Highs TEB: 85New Brunswick: 84PHL: 84EWR: 85ACY: 81TTN: 82NYC: 82LGA: 82ISP: 82JFK: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Already 80..wonder if any of the warm spots can make a run at 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Already 80..wonder if any of the warm spots can make a run at 90? From looking at the NAM and HRRR, the sea breeze should kick in before anyone hits 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Slow moving elevated convection signal tomorrow morning. Could see some localized heavy rain in areas that get training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Slow moving elevated convection signal tomorrow morning. Could see some localized heavy rain in areas that get training. SND.gif The 12z NAM and the 0Z Euro looks to take the heavier rain through Monmouth and Ocean Counties . The 4k NAM is much more widespread . But I agree with you , localized would be a good description . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 From looking at the NAM and HRRR, the sea breeze should kick in before anyone hits 90. Toms River hit 90 but I'm not necessarily buying it as its a good 5-6 degrees higher than any other stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Temp reached 87 here earlier, now down to 84 with a se wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 8, 2014 Author Share Posted June 8, 2014 Looks like plenty of convective chances this week. The 12z GFS is painting a pretty unsettled pattern. Upton doesn't introduce the chance of any convection and a slight chance of that until Tuesday P.M and none after that so plenty is incorrect http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Upton doesn't introduce the chance of any convection and a slight chance of that until Tuesday P.M and none after that so plenty is incorrect http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html My post was based on a model run not a forecast from a vendor that doesn't even cover this whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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