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June Discussion


Bostonseminole

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hold off more, pretty sure the shoreline gets that natural AC this week, where are you seeing 80s /60s this week?

Well we are a few miles inland. Not solid 80s this week...bit I think we should get upper 70s to near 80 the next couple days. Then some humidity later this week should keep lows in the upper 50s later this week. For most it's comfortable weather still...but we've got a cape and the 2nd floor is poorly insulated with little to no airflow. This time of year it heats up like a greenhouse under full sun regardless of air temp...temps start pushing 80 and above and you really need nighttime temps well below 60 to have any chance of getting the indoor temp to comfortable sleeping levels by 10-11pm even with window fans. Don't worry...I'm holding off on installing the first floor units a little while longer.

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For what it is worth ... here are the GFSX MOS number for BDL in Connecticut for this week. Someone asked where 'are you seeing 80s/60s ...  Both synoptically and in machine guidance:

 

N/X 42 80| 50 86| 62 84| 65 85| 58 81| 59 80| 57 79| 58 54 77 

 

Which says nothing to 'weather' it verifies or not, but there are hard forecasted numbers, as well as synoptic interpretations for a warmer than normal week.  

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For what it is worth ... here are the GFSX MOS number for BDL in Connecticut for this week. Someone asked where 'are you seeing 80s/60s ... Both synoptically and in machine guidance:

N/X 42 80| 50 86| 62 84| 65 85| 58 81| 59 80| 57 79| 58 54 77

Which says nothing to 'weather' it verifies or not, but there are hard forecasted numbers, as well as synoptic interpretations for a warmer than normal week.

No doubt this week has taken on warmer look, especially early. Although I think Ginxy's point was more toward the coast still staying a bit cooler. But once we hit June the ocean really starts to lose its influence back this way outside typical seabreezes or unless you're right on the water. Think we sniff 80 here tomorrow with a better chance of hitting it Monday. Overnight lows start creeping up staring Monday night.

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For what it is worth ... here are the GFSX MOS number for BDL in Connecticut for this week. Someone asked where 'are you seeing 80s/60s ...  Both synoptically and in machine guidance:

 

N/X 42 80| 50 86| 62 84| 65 85| 58 81| 59 80| 57 79| 58 54 77 

 

Which says nothing to 'weather' it verifies or not, but there are hard forecasted numbers, as well as synoptic interpretations for a warmer than normal week.  

To be fair Ginxy specified near the shore. GON/WST near him are pretty much 70s/U50s this upcoming week on MEX guidance.

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To be fair Ginxy specified near the shore. GON/WST near him are pretty much 70s/U50s this upcoming week on MEX guidance.

 

Oh, 'k, sure ... coast is always fickle.  I was just glancing over the posts. 

 

As far as inland... Also, I think there is some chance that the wind goes off shore, and if so, at least for the NH Coast and Mass eastern shores, they actually can be warmest as you well knows.  But as far as S. CT,  a SW wind will definitely bend SSW. 

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Monday and Tuesday are warm..Tues esp inland and south of pike I think. Looks like ORH-PVD could cool off with ESE winds. Then Wd and Thurs are tricky with frontal disturbance passing overhead or just south. One of those things where if it's raining and cloudy..it's just muggy and cooler..if there is sun..it's in the 80s easily. One of those days could feature good storms.

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To be fair Ginxy specified near the shore. GON/WST near him are pretty much 70s/U50s this upcoming week on MEX guidance.

 

Indeed he specified that loudly.

 

Growing up on the CT shore (New London), the cooling effects are certainly greater as  you head east of the CT River.  My guess is that has to do with the sound being less 'soundy' as you head east and away from the protective element of Long Island.

 

Looks like today will be much more comfortable than yesterday's 50's.   Between that and the 40's on Tuesday, this must have been one of the cooler last weeks of May in a while.

 

46.6/46

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My guess is June may be a little AN (maybe 0.5-1F??), but I still don't like the long wave pattern for a very summery pattern...might be more close to climo for June. It also depends on these ill-timed waves moving along the fronts. This week is a prime example.

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Indeed he specified that loudly.

Growing up on the CT shore (New London), the cooling effects are certainly greater as you head east of the CT River. My guess is that has to do with the sound being less 'soundy' as you head east and away from the protective element of Long Island.

Looks like today will be much more comfortable than yesterday's 50's. Between that and the 40's on Tuesday, this must have been one of the cooler last weeks of May in a while.

46.6/46

Yep...LIS has less impact back this way. Even the NWS overdoes it quite a bit with the sound influence in temps. It's influence back this way is usually most noticeable in spring and fall. In summer and winter LI does a lot to help counteract the water's influence in comparison with the east of the river where there little to no land buffer.

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Ummmm.....isn't climo for June summery?

 

I mean July-Aug like wx that we can get in June. Otherwise climo to start June isn't all that hot. In other words it's not like previous patterns that featured a furnace ridge parked over the east...at least as of now. It's more like a changeable pattern with some warmer and more humid days as well as cooler days. Could very well be the trend of the summer. 

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Yep...LIS has less impact back this way. Even the NWS overdoes it quite a bit with the sound influence in temps. It's influence back this way is usually most noticeable in spring and fall. In summer and winter LI does a lot to help counteract the water's influence in comparison with the east of the river where there little to no land buffer.

 

I was a block up from the water.  No AC needed, fans for a couple nights would do it.

 

I mean July-Aug like wx that we can get in June. Otherwise climo to start June isn't all that hot. In other words it's not like previous patterns that featured a furnace ridge parked over the east...at least as of now. It's more like a changeable pattern with some warmer and more humid days as well as cooler days. Could very well be the trend of the summer. 

 

Gotcha.  Seasons being seasons.

 

Back out to cutting. 

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Willy Wankum going 80 here on Wednesday. That may be tough in this area....heck even BDL if the euro is right.

Another backdoor cold front, making it through most of New England and NYC by Wednesday.... 60's / onshore winds moving towards ESE, and stratus....It probably will be 85-88 degrees 40 miles west of NYC, with a wall of stratus covering all of New England, and just through and west of NYC with partly clear skies just west of 75 West longitude, and severe weather possible.  Late Tuesday and Wednesday looks frustratingly annoying with another BDCF, no thunder and "stratus marine crap" moving west.  Don't like the pattern either.. '09 anyone.  It looks like a drizzly backdoor "Triple Crown" race in Belmont, NYC next weekend, with drizzly chilly weather for a few days, Friday - Monday next weekend. 50's for highs.  Let's hope California Chrome can do it !!!

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Another backdoor cold front, making it through most of New England and NYC by Wednesday.... 60's / onshore winds moving towards ESE, and stratus....It probably will be 85-88 degrees 40 miles west of NYC, with a wall of stratus covering all of New England, and just through and west of NYC with partly clear skies just west of 75 West longitude, and severe weather possible.  Late Tuesday and Wednesday looks frustratingly annoying with another BDCF, no thunder and "stratus marine crap" moving west.  Don't like the pattern either.. '09 anyone.  It looks like a drizzly backdoor "Triple Crown" race in Belmont, NYC next weekend, with drizzly chilly weather for a few days, Friday - Monday next weekend. 50's for highs.  Let's hope California Chrome can do it !!!

 

I don't see much evidence to support this interpretation ... other than a propensity to do so, this particular spring - sure.  

 

But as is, the Euro washes out a frontal boundary as it approaches from the W -- as does the majority of the other guidance amid the pantheon of reliable sources.  This leaves the area prone to just about anything from meso scale convective processes, to shrapnel cloud cover.  But without a major CAA push, probably humid.  

 

Back door fronts in the more classic design, take place because S/Ws pass SE just N of Maine, and the backside NVA (which ultimately means downward vertical motion) causes pressures to rise over the Gulf Of Maine. Compounding ... while that is happening the water temperatures in that region of the Atlantic are absurdly cold. This feeds back to some degree (no pun intended...) and helps to really make that air mass cool and dense compared to the warm-ish air mass over the land near-by to the west; where there is more upward vertical motion associated with day-time heating.  That whole model sets up a sort of local Hadley Cell, where the air mass over land rises, then is displaced ESE above 850mb, and this induces the erstwhile cool, dense GOM air to move SW. Compounding, technically ... all of SNE sticks out into the west Atlantic some 50 to 100 miles, that ...ain't helpin'. If you draw a straight line between about Portland Maine to NYC, all land east of that line is quasi-peninsula.   

 

Anyway ... the closest evolution that resembles that structure is some 1500 mile NNE of here over the lower D. Straight region, and that is just too far away to effect results locally. What is actually taking place is a front approaching from the west and weakening, leaving the region in a sort of 'COL'.   

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