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mreaves

NNE Spring

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^ Wow, 64 in Burlington & Middlebury this morning.

Up to 54F now at the top of the FourRunner Quad chairlift at 3,600ft, while it's in the 30s below 1,000ft.

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Still some light NE flow, but at least it's sunny so we're slowly warming...up to 46F. SW NH is well into the 60s now. Newberry in western Merrimack county (1400-1500') is near 60F as well. We should mix out in the next hour or two.

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Yeah we are neaing 70 now and the winds are really gusting from the south (definitely a few gusts to 40 or so thus far).

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Yeah we are neaing 70 now and the winds are really gusting from the south (definitely a few gusts to 40 or so thus far).

I miss the warm tropical breeze in the Champlain Valley...the southerly gales in the warm season.

We are up to 60F at 3500-4000ft, so if this fully mixes, the valleys are going 75-80F easily.

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Posted this in the other thread, but wanted to make sure Tamarck saw it.  Wondering what he's got for water content as I'm sure he's still got a decent pack left.  This is pretty darn ripe now.

 

At my 1,500ft plot, the snow is now running >40% water content as of this afternoon.

 

Snowpack is 14-16" deep on level ground at that elevation, and contains a whopping 6-7" of snow-water equivalent.  This is on par with the highest I've seen which is in that 40-50% water range...as last April I had a core with 64" depth and 26" SWE at 3,000ft.

 

Ripe for sure.  When it's near 50% the big melt is usually at hand.  I attempted to core the 17" remaining last Saturday, but all my potential spots now seem contaminated by multiple rodent trails near ground level - the hollows make an accurate measurement unlikely.

 

Yesterday's high was 38 and we had some surprise snow 10-noon, which I missed because we were picking up our son at PWM.  There was still some left when we got home at 4 PM, and this morning (at the dentist for fillings) I heard that there was 2" in Rangeley and several accidents/slide-offs on the roads up that way.  Very foggy last evening and overnight, but it burnt off about 10 AM and temps are in the 50s.  Just now I'm hearing the first calls from migratory songbirds; they reached AUG more than a week ago.

 

Ice on the Sandy ran over the weekend with only minor rises, though there's still some jammed at the mouth of Muddy Brook.  The jam on the Carrabasset is holding, though the water has receded a couple feet.  Today's warmth should put a couple inches LE of snowmelt into the local watercourses, and GYX is now thinking 1"+ rain tomorrow - would bring moderate flooding.  We'd need the melt plus a 5+ rainfall to approach 1987.

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I miss the warm tropical breeze in the Champlain Valley...the southerly gales in the warm season.

We are up to 60F at 3500-4000ft, so if this fully mixes, the valleys are going 75-80F easily.

 

I definitely agree. 80 is within reach here. It will be interesting to see how bad these winds get. The channeling and at least some mixing arethere. Winds are about 60 knots at 500 mb and 40-50 knots at 850 mb as per SPC mesoanalysis.

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56F calm winds, about ready to take the big jump into spring  ( at least for a day).  It will be interesting to see if the SW wind picks up all of a sudden with a gradual temp rise or does it all at once.  Since Im 600 feet above the surrounding area maybe the warm comes down from above all at once.  I'll know soon

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80 on my questionably accurate thermometer

feels like it

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3-5" in my point and click for Tuesday overnight. Weird.

In Peacham?  MIne says less than half inch of accumulation.

 

  • TuesdayRain and thunderstorms likely before noon, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 2pm, then rain after 2pm. High near 56. South wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
  • Tuesday NightRain and snow showers before 4am, then a chance of rain showers. Low around 25. West wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 37. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

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Ripe for sure.  When it's near 50% the big melt is usually at hand.  I attempted to core the 17" remaining last Saturday, but all my potential spots now seem contaminated by multiple rodent trails near ground level - the hollows make an accurate measurement unlikely.

 

Yesterday's high was 38 and we had some surprise snow 10-noon, which I missed because we were picking up our son at PWM.  There was still some left when we got home at 4 PM, and this morning (at the dentist for fillings) I heard that there was 2" in Rangeley and several accidents/slide-offs on the roads up that way.  Very foggy last evening and overnight, but it burnt off about 10 AM and temps are in the 50s.  Just now I'm hearing the first calls from migratory songbirds; they reached AUG more than a week ago.

 

Ice on the Sandy ran over the weekend with only minor rises, though there's still some jammed at the mouth of Muddy Brook.  The jam on the Carrabasset is holding, though the water has receded a couple feet.  Today's warmth should put a couple inches LE of snowmelt into the local watercourses, and GYX is now thinking 1"+ rain tomorrow - would bring moderate flooding.  We'd need the melt plus a 5+ rainfall to approach 1987.

 

Don't see this happening

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We're always late, but when we warm sector we do it with style.

ASH 79

MHT 78

CON 78

 

The Winni weenies must be all excited. I've never seen such wishcasting for the ice to melt...lol.

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The Winni weenies must be all excited. I've never seen such wishcasting for the ice to melt...lol.

there are 2 things you can do on the lake: boat/swim, or ice fish/snowmobile etc

The lake is virtually unusable twice a year- when waiting for ice to form in the winter, and when waiting for ice to melt in the spring. i would hate to own property on one of the islands for that reason. your home is nearly unaccessible

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there are 2 things you can do on the lake: boat/swim, or ice fish/snowmobile etc

The lake is virtually unusable twice a year- when waiting for ice to form in the winter, and when waiting for ice to melt in the spring. i would hate to own property on one of the islands for that reason. your home is nearly unaccessible

 

Most of these guys just want to put their boat in so they are all dying for it to melt.

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Almost 80 here. Time to put out the palms at Breakwaters Cafe and Grill in Burlington.

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Well with a lot of liquid equivalent to melt out of the elevations above 1,300ft, the river out back is rising rapidly.  It has really come up a lot today...and it hasn't even rained.  I was out walking the dog and was surprised at how much more it came up just since this morning.  Given that this drains all of Mansfield's east side, it'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow with the rainfall and continued quick melt.

 

Its obviously still within its banks, but its full.   Makes me wonder how much water is getting pumped into the bigger ones like the WInooski River or Lamoille River. 

 

This is usually just a trickle that's ankle to knee deep, and you could raft down it right now.  Pics don't do the "swiftness" of it justice.  its moving.  Will be interesting if we can get another 12-18 inch rise.

 

 

 

 

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The Winooski is pretty high. The islands below the dam (Salmon Hole) are underwater and the falls are pretty fierce right now.  Here are a couple of lousy hipstergram shots:

10269500_10101821601522859_7421519413885

 

1554458_10101821613698459_69135835969984

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Current flood watch language from GYX:

 

* Through Wednesday evening

* the combination of rapid snow melt due to mild temperatures and
periodic rainfall will keep rivers running high through mid
week. There is also a threat of ice jam flooding in the
mountains. Ice has been moving on the Carrabassett river and
Sandy River in Maine. Rainfall is expected to be 1 to 2 inches
with the most rain falling in the upslope areas of the White
Mountains and the western Maine mountains.

 

The most rain for the places with the most snow to melt.  Could be interesting tomorrow night into Wednesday.  I'm guessing the ice on the Sandy gets blown downriver with little fanfare, but I'm less confident about the Carrabassett jam exiting quietly.
 

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Wunderground defaults to "Best Forecast (their own)" and not the NWS, just fyi.

 

Almost 80 here. Time to put out the palms at Breakwaters Cafe and Grill in Burlington.

 

We made it to 80F!

 

And the lake ice has just vaporized. Totally open with solid 2-3 foot waves today. Only ice left is in the bays.

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Did a tour of Mallets and Colchester today.  Yep, lake ice is pretty gone save for the bay.  Colchester point was hovering around 61F late this afternoon around 5pm with crashing waves and a strong south wind.  Heading toward the UVM campus, the car thermometer steadily rose until we hit 79F.  A cold lake and very warm air- it's a similar setup to Downeast Maine around Memorial Day.  All that's missing is super thick fog.

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My neighbor plows and sands a bunch of condo's and private driveways and is asking my advice on if we are going to have enough ice/snow that he has to treat driveways first thing in the AM.  NAM is showing .20" frozen for CON now.  Just wondering is this going to be a bit of snow on the grass or a flash freeze on the roads early AM?  Town just got finished cleaning up all the sand from roads and walks..  This might be sneaky??  Just don't have a good handle on this.

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