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mreaves

NNE Spring

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Since we have turned the page on March, I figured the time, if not our snowpack, is ripe to start a spring thread.  March left us with record cold in parts of VT and provided us with a solid, snowy end to winter.  For me, it's now time to move on to warmer pursuits, of course there are no big warm ups in the immediate future and the SNE mets have said that the pattern going forward supports additional chances for snow, so it doesn't look like we'll be shucking oysters with LL and the SW CT boys anytime soon.  The only question left is, how far south will I have to drive to play golf before May 1st?

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Nice, was thinking a spring thread was in order for us myself.

 

Excellent start to the month this morning.  Should have a nice few sugaring days coming up:  teens & 20s by night, 40s by day with ample sunshine....

 

The thaw can be quite painful around here--particularly the mud but I'm ready to turn the corner too.  Gotta get through it one way or another.  ;)

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Nice, was thinking a spring thread was in order for us myself.

 

Excellent start to the month this morning.  Should have a nice few sugaring days coming up:  teens & 20s by night, 40s by day with ample sunshine....

 

The thaw can be quite painful around here--particularly the mud but I'm ready to turn the corner too.  Gotta get through it one way or another.  ;)

Yes, I have begun saying my temporary goodbyes to friends and family who live on the back roads.  I think that this year the mud may be particularly bad so it may be June before I see some of them again!

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I bottomed out briefly on New Canada road near Ragged Mt. on Saturday.  Little section of road went from no problems in the AM to deep ruts in the PM.

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LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY...PRODUCING
RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY AFTN INTO EVENING. AS THE PRECIP SHIELD
PUSHES EWD...COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN VT...RESULTING IN WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...WARM AIR WILL HAVE
PUSHED THROUGH MOST OVER VERMONT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SLV. SO THE WRN EDGE OF
THE FA WILL BEGIN TO SEE COLDER AIR FILTER IN AND TRANSITION
PRECIP TO SNOW SATURDAY NGT...WITH CHC OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NGT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

 

Any chance we see snow at elevation with this???

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52.2F,  first 50F since Nov 17 2013.  Lost a good amount of snowpack today, Snowstake in the open field says about 10" left. Much more in the woods and on northern exposures.  First grass appearing under the apple trees but still about 95-98% snowpack.  Another 50F tomorrow and the first real open patches on SW exposures could begin. It is amazing how durable this pack is.  If this was a fresh 6" snowpack one day of 50F and sun would have done it in.

 

Shut down the wood burning stove for the first time in many, many months.  Solar insolation really does the trick.  Sun through the glass in my sunroom kept the whole house warm today.  About 1/2 cord of wood remains from my 6 cords.

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What a great day.  Worked up a sweat washing the SUV, while my two cats lounged on the screened porch for the first time since early November. Got to 70° in the house thanks to huge casement windows.  We may still average below normal after all is said and done this month, but man, again...what a great day.  Spring is here as far as I'm concerned.

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Since we have turned the page on March, I figured the time, if not our snowpack, is ripe to start a spring thread.  March left us with record cold in parts of VT and provided us with a solid, snowy end to winter.  For me, it's now time to move on to warmer pursuits, of course there are no big warm ups in the immediate future and the SNE mets have said that the pattern going forward supports additional chances for snow, so it doesn't look like we'll be shucking oysters with LL and the SW CT boys anytime soon.  The only question left is, how far south will I have to drive to play golf before May 1st?

I'm willing to bet I can get 1 round of golf in in BTV before May 1. It will be close but I have a good feeling.

I was out last year on or about May 3. 

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I'm willing to bet I can get 1 round of golf in in BTV before May 1. It will be close but I have a good feeling.

I was out last year on or about May 3. 

Rocky Ridge usually opens early so that is likely.  Williston never opens before the last week of April, regardless of conditions.  Kwiniaska may open but a guy I work with, who is a member there, was noting that it seems like it will be a while.  Down here, a normal opening for my course, Northfield Country Club, is April 22nd or so.  There will have to be a nice warm-up to be ready for that date.  The Country Club of Barre will probably be in a similar time frame but they'll be limited by mud season since they are a couple of miles from pavement.  Further south, one of the best early season bets would be Neshobe.  They are in a little bit of a snow hole in Brandon and seem to open early a lot.

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Yesterday's high of 44 felt much milder than that, as the wind went away after lunchtime. However, barring a precipitous (pun intended) melt-off, we'll retain snow cover past mid month at my place. Snow depth days now over 2,500, passing 2008-09 for 3rd highest. 2000-01 (2,790) is next in line, maybe 50-50 chance of catching it, but 2007-08 is over 3,800 - to approach that we'd need to carry 2'+ snowpack into May.  :sled:

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Did the biweekly snow survey yesterday and came up with the following:

3,000ft High Road Plot

Depth: 66"

SWE: 20.5"

1,550ft Barnes Camp Plot

Depth: 30"

SWE: 11.5"

Getting more ripe now that we are around 30-35% water.

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Was out around CON a bit today and the grass has made some big gains.  Looks very March-like out there finally now that April has hit.  Open areas are torched down to nothing in many places.

:frostymelt:

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I was looking at the ski area NWS forecast and had never seen the wording "Definite Freezing Rain" before...I've just never seen the word "Definite" on there, does anyone know if the icons or wording changed?  Not that it matters at all, had just never seen that.

 

 

Today is how it should be this time of year... sunny and gorgeous out there.  51F at MVL off a low of 30F.  Should come in above normal today, as yesterday hit dead on normal at 49/21.

 

Feels great.

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I was looking at the ski area NWS forecast and had never seen the wording "Definite Freezing Rain" before...I've just never seen the word "Definite" on there, does anyone know if the icons or wording changed?  Not that it matters at all, had just never seen that.

 

attachicon.gifforecast.jpg

 

Today is how it should be this time of year... sunny and gorgeous out there.  51F at MVL off a low of 30F.  Should come in above normal today, as yesterday hit dead on normal at 49/21.

 

Feels great.

Lets Golf!

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Bluebird

 

Yeah all around 5-star day out there.  I'm over the cold, although it doesn't look like we are going to a warm pattern anytime soon.  Plenty of snow to get through the rest of the season which ends at 4:20pm on Sunday 4/20.  

 

Then its time for second season to start, which is skinning/hiking up with friends to enjoy a private ski resort in the spring-sun.   We can probably grab another month of earning turns this season at this rate, haha.  After an entire season of jamming out tons of runs via lift service, its nice to go out and get some solid exercise and enjoy the peacefulness of earning turns.  

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That record avalanche on Mount Washington the other day was pretty insane...never before seen an avalanche anywhere close to this size on the summit cone snowfields.

 

20 foot deep debris piles and you can see skiers in the first picture on the right and left.  No injuries or deaths.  Or at least not that they know of.

 

 

 

http://www.powdermag.com/avalanche-education/record-avalanche-east-coast/

 

WORDS: Brian Irwin

Last Friday, March 29, a large avalanche swept the southeast section of New Hampshire’s Mount Washington’s summit cone. According to U.S.F.S. Snow Ranger Chris Joosen, “A slide of this magnitude has never been recorded on this particular slope.” Suspected to be skier triggered, this aspect of 6,288-foot Mount Washington rarely avalanches and is a moderate slope popular for backcountry skiers. Roughly 20 individuals were on the slope when the avalanche occurred at approximately 1 p.m. No one was caught in the slide.

Mount Washington is perhaps best known for its venerable Tuckerman Ravine, an area that draws thousands of visitors on spring weekends. The U.S.F.S. Mount Washington Avalanche Center forecasts this area, but not the summit cone, an area that is largely considered less prone to avalanches than the steep gullies of Tuckerman and neighboring Huntington Ravine.

Joosen estimates the slide meets criteria for a D3 avalanche, which means it has the potential to destroy a wood-frame house. Field analysis revealed the crown face was three feet deep and 650 feet across. The avalanche ran 385 vertical feet. It was thought to have occurred when a weak layer of facets beneath an ice lens collapsed, allowing the overlaying hard slab to run.

The slide was first reported by Harvard Cabin caretaker Rich Palatino. U.S.F.S. Snow Rangers responded immediately. After a three-hour avalanche dog and beacon search, extensive interview of witnesses, and evaluation of the pile, which was 20 feet deep in places, it was determined that there were no casualties.

Avalanches are not uncommon on Mount Washington and in New Hampshire’s Presidential Range. However, in that region, larger slab avalanches most frequently occur during or after a storm. On the day of the incident, skies were fair and avalanche conditions in Tuckerman were rated at moderate, “with the primary concern being wet slabs.” Joosen explained that this slide was unique in that “warm weather and free water did not appear to be a causative factor in triggering this event.”

 

 

 

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The summit had two significant rain events in January.  I wonder if there's an ice layer from that time that contributed to the snow above it breaking loose.

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nothing says spring like deep snowpack:)

 

first dog walk with the jacket in the pack in quite some time.

 

DSCN0061.jpg

 

rime was still holding up, face ledges are buried

 

DSCN0062.jpg

 

big jay showing some new routes with all the snow, PF, your hill looking good of in the distance

 

DSCN0063.jpg

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Passing Sandy River Farm (in Farmington) this morning, saw 9 Canada geese standing about 100 yards into a field covered by about 18" snow.  Birds were very forlorn-looking, as the cover hasn't yet melted from their buffet table.  Aldo Leopold ("Goose Music") noted that geese invest hundreds of miles of nighttime flying into their decisions to migrate northward, and can be in trouble if they guess wrong about spring's advance.

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Excellent pictures, Borderwx!  Love that last shot of Big Jay.

 

I just caught a sweet web cam view from the BTV airport looking towards Mansfield.  Not too often web cams offer up these types of sunrises.

 

 

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After a bit of a break for the beginning of the month, it looks like we’re going to get back into some active weather for the weekend.  Winter Weather Advisories are up in our area and throughout Northern New England east of the Greens for a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain:

 

04APR14A.jpg

 

On the snowfall forecast map, one can see that the numbers are generally in the 1-2” range.  The models suggest some additional snow is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning on the back side of the system, but the BTV NWS isn’t mentioning much about it in their recent discussion.

 

04APR14B.jpg

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After this event...looks like a pretty significant warm-up. Last nights model runs really didn't have anything cooler then around 50 for highs after this weekend. Spring!

30F this morning and in the sun it feels legitimately like 60.

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There’s been a bit of change in the BTV NWS advisories map with this afternoon’s update – the Winter Weather Advisories along the western slopes of the Greens have been replaced with a Hazardous Weather Outlook, which is also visible down in southern areas of New Hampshire outside the Winter Weather Advisories:

 

04APR14C.jpg

 

There’s been a more notable update to the snowfall forecast map, which now had various areas with 2-4” of snow in spots along the spine:

 

04APR14D.jpg

 

The BTV NWS forecast discussion doesn’t really speak to any sort of numbers on the accumulations, but I was surprised to see that latest snowfall forecast map ends midday Saturday instead of Sunday morning as the previous version had.  There is mention of the way the atmospheric conditions develop Saturday into Saturday night in the discussion:

 

MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TRAILS SFC FEATURES WITH 500MB TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUNDAY. WITH STEEP PBL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW/COOL TEMPS ALOFT...CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW ISOLD/SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING SAT. DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S. INCREASE W-WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS BY MID-LATE AFTN. WILL CARRY ISOLD -RW IN THE VALLEYS WITH ISOLD/SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 1500FT DURING MID-AFTN SATURDAY...DOWN TO 1000FT BY LATE AFTN...INTO INTO THE VALLEYS WITH ANY REMAINING ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING.

 

The models (ECMWF, GFS, NAM) all show moisture on the back side of the system lasting into Sunday night, which would certainly be snow based on the temperature profiles, but I’m not sure where that fits in the snowfall forecast map.

 

Rolling the GFS ahead seems to show similar opportunities for snow going toward mid month with systems coming through every three to four days.

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