Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 PM moderator regarding your 5 PPD. The EURO has almost always had the upper hand on Miller A storms and the GFS has been too progressive. The EURO control hasnt been too bad this season and the ensembles sniffing this out and being consistent is FAR more promising than what the GFS shows right now. Agree-Euro is often superior on the deeper, big QPF events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Might have some good winds as well.I didn't see the temperature profiles but inversions usually keep things in check this time of year even if we do get a very powerful lp pressure system (March 2010 is a big exception) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 How come I can only post 5 posts a day. My iq is 141 I'm smart enough to contribute! Also I really have a good feeling about this storm especially with the cmc and euro being on board. I'd rather see the euro take lead on a classic miller A storm, than GFS any day. GFS seems to do better with Miller B storms though. Wow if the euro control run verifies, come Tuesday night it will feel like Dec 26 2010! Thundersnow anyone? Pardon my nativity, but what's a "miller A & B" storm? Thx The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Pardon my nativity, but what's a "miller A & B" storm? Thx The CNJ Plowsman http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Pardon my nativity, but what's a "miller A & B" storm? Thx The CNJ Plowsman http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Pardon my nativity, but what's a "miller A & B" storm? Thx The CNJ Plowsman Miller A storm is a storm that originates from the gulf and our biggest storms have been Miller A variety (93' 96' 10' ) to name a few. Miller B storm is a storm that redevelops off the atlantic coast ( 03' 06' ) are a couple good examples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 964 on the bm on euro control Even if this thing misses OTS, but has a pressure in the 960s, it's going to be a sight to watch the swells roll in off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Pardon my nativity, but what's a "miller A & B" storm? Thx The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Pardon my nativity, but what's a "miller A & B" storm? Thx The CNJ Plowsman http://www.examiner.com/slideshow/miller-a-vs-miller-b-storms#slide=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This storm is going to end up being the number 1 analog for this event the way it looks now in a neutral enso year March 28 -29 1984 - almost to the day 30 years ago http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_19104.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Even if this thing misses OTS, but has a pressure in the 960s, it's going to be a sight to watch the swells roll in off the ocean. Ding ding ding. Surfers love a good out to sea miss. As long as its close enough to put us (south facing Long Island) on the backside northerly flow. Big swell and offshore winds equal epic east coast swell. And the biggest an best swell in the last 20 years was a march offshore low special 3/11/03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ding ding ding. Surfers love a good out to sea miss. As long as its close enough to put us (south facing Long Island) on the backside northerly flow. Big swell and offshore winds equal epic east coast swell. And the biggest an best swell in the last 20 years was a march offshore low special 3/11/03.Too bad the water is freezing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This storm is going to end up being the number 1 analog for this event the way it looks now in a neutral enso year March 28 -29 1984 - almost to the day 30 years ago http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_19104.html that storm had an eye with it...If the temperature was two degrees lower KNYC would have gotten 10" or more instead of 3-4" of slush...Tobyhanna Pa. got 26" from that event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Back to the storm the WPC Wednesday projection has a sub 984 right on the benchmark. It is interesting to see them go west of most of the operational models, I will wait until Sunday before I make such a commitment, but wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wetsuit technology has made tremendous advances in the last 15 years. A guy surfed Lake Superior earlier this winter before it froze and the water air combo was 33/-20 now that's crazy! Mid 30s water and similar air is really no big deal!I completely forgot about wetsuits lol. Thank god everyone called me out on it! Hopefully this storm trends a little further west to nail everyone, a 970mb low inside the benchmark preferably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 984mb wow, very euro-ish 12Z Tues -Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I have a feeling this place will either explode with action/weenie suicides already lol. This is an important EURO run tonight for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is the Grand Finale baby...I can smell it... !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I have a feeling this place will either explode with action/weenie suicides already lol. This is an important EURO run tonight for me. Would have possibly been worth staying up for the Euro before DST. Do yourself a favor and head to bed after the GFS inevitably fills us all with visions of mediocrity. Or not—I'm not the police. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I have a feeling this place will either explode with action/weenie suicides already lol. This is an important EURO run tonight for me. All the runs are important.. they just get more important as we get closer. Saturday night will be showtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yea these post DST euro runs arent worth it to me. I'll check it when I wake up. I hate predicting model runs but I bet the 0z gfs is simmilar to 12z and prolly doesnt get a clue quite on this run. The Euro, which loves Miller A's, should be interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Come Saturday.. if there is still a 970-980 class storm thats inbound... this boards server will fry ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ding ding ding. Surfers love a good out to sea miss. As long as its close enough to put us (south facing Long Island) on the backside northerly flow. Big swell and offshore winds equal epic east coast swell. And the biggest an best swell in the last 20 years was a march offshore low special 3/11/03. Best benifit to living near the ocean. Even if a powerful storm is OTS or a crushing rainmaker, it's always amazing to go to the beach and watch the ocean. Would love for tonight's euro to hold steady. Probably asking a lot, but at this point, and probably through tomorrow, I wouldn't look at anything but the euro and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Is this a Tues afternoon/night threat, a Tues Night/Wed AM threat, or a late Tues PM/ Wed daytime threat. I see the low is over the bm @ 12z Wed yet Albany's discussion is talking about a Tues afternoon event and sun on Wed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Is this a Tues afternoon/night threat, a Tues Night/Wed AM threat, or a late Tues PM/ Wed daytime threat. I see the low is over the bm @ 12z Wed yet Albany's discussion is talking about a Tues afternoon event and sun on Wed... Late Tues/early Wd. as of now but who knows if Sunday's miss slots into 50/50 position as some models indicating this may slow down the entire dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ridging off the west coast is noticeably flatter through hour 66, but the shortwave over the NWT is further south, so maybe we can encourage some earlier phasing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GFS is farther East with the main pieces of energy, however it looks like they're going to phase sooner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I honestly just have a feeling that once again these models will show a big solution, then begin to slowly loose it starting tonight. Hopefully I am completely wrong. We can't even make anything of these runs until they get properly sampled, because the last two storms that provided a drastic change. So basically, these runs mean absolutely nothing other than noise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I honestly just have a feeling that once again these models will show a big solution, then begin to slowly loose it starting tonight. Hopefully I am completely wrong. We can't even make anything of these runs until they get properly sampled, because the last two storms that provided a drastic change. So basically, these runs mean absolutely nothing other than noise to me. and thats why you are here at midnight because they mean 'Nothing' to you ? ..Just enjoy the ride , I understand you r trying to control your enthusaidm & dont want hopes dashed but Im sure u wont mind if phase now takes place sooner and GFS shows a 975 at ACY in 5.5 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Like I said I wouldn't worry about the GFS being east. Remember the thanksgiving storm 2013 the GFS showed a Miller A going out to sea though. And Euro and Canadian had it also...Canadian had an inland runner and euro had it tucked in. It ended up being a rainstorm for us but hey the point is I would pay more attention to the Canadian and Euro (a blend of both ecmwf/GGEM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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