CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I only get 4" I will be devastated. Climo be damned. I WAS hoping for 3" to get me to 30. But now...I want 13 to get me to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Most storms move north in the final 24 or so but this isn't the classic north trender. I'd like to see the south trend stop soon one way or another. My guess is it will but there is no real reasoning behind that other than history as with anyone else saying there will be a north trend. Yea, it's absolutely not a typical setup to have true north trend like we see with defined circulation lp systems. My version of a north trend in my mind is simply a bigger precip field on the north side. Even if the 18z gfs verified with height and pressure I think folks along and just north of the md line do just fine with the second piece. I may not know what the hell I'm talking about though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 100% agree with this. I don't think the usual last minute north bump is valid with this storm due to the impressive PV pushing down acting like a psuedo-block. Your 1"+ QPF call is pretty solid based on all guidance thus far, including room to our north of the 1"+ field for any further small shifts to the south. we could still see a tick north tomorrow. I think tonight the idea is to keep a flesh wound from developing into a gangrenous to the bone infection that requires amputation....If every model goes south at 0z, that's probably a cause for concern, but that shouldnt cause anyone to throw in the towel. Models and storms have a tendency to surprise us at the last minute, and usually it involves north movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is a sincere question. I live in Cape May Co NJ and lived in Va recently for about five years. I love this board first off!! Here is my question. If the 12z Euro, and both the 18z gfs and nam show at least 8", why does it seem like many of the veteran posters are so concerned with busting low? Edit: I mean specifically the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wasnow, the issue is that the models have been moving south in a slow, but steady march over the past two days. They are concerned that if this movement continues that the storm will move south of some of their houses, and they really want snow in their back yards! Seems like the biggest risk of busting low will be near the PA line. DC proper will likely not bust low unless the shift south becomes much more pronounced than it has been over the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z SREFs move 0c 2mT line through DCA at midnight... DCA low 20s by 12z MON DCA about 3 degrees 4-7 am TUES morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Because winners and losers are close together and the stripe is pretty narrow I think every piece of guidance deserves respect going forward. The 0z suite tonight is super important. We're done with big swings but have plenty of time for little swings to add up or subtract from our yards. I'm just not nervous like I usually am. Maybe because the whole thing feels like an unexpected gift just dropped in my lap. Even if we get 3-5" we should all still feel pretty lucky. agreed. But it is hard to be agnostic toward an event that has 8"+ potential. So far this year in DC metro from this range we have had 5 overperformers 12/8 1/2-3 1/28-29 2/9 2/25 2 Underperformers 12/10 2/18 and 3 that met expectations 1/21 2/12-13 2/26 And the 2 underperformers were due to warmth/mixing.... I like our record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z SREFs move 0c 2mT line through DCA at midnight... DCA low 20s by 12z MONHow did the last SREF compare at the same timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How did the last SREF compare at the same timeframe? Regarding 2mT on 15z and 21z SREFs -- same, perhaps slightly faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks Chaos! That makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 15z SREFs had 850 0c line running through DCA or just south at 12z... the 21z SREFs have the 0c 850 line pushing through DCA at 09z (4am MON)... however the spread is large as one can see by the color fill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z SREF mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z SREF is south of 15z, but they have been too far north the whole cycle...they look just like the Euro and the GGEM... 1.5", DC and S/SW burbs, 1.25" BWI, 1" line runs from FDK to Havre de Grace, 0.75" to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF looks like a solid hit for us but track-wise it is good and now is temperature-wise in line with the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF. I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z SREF is south of 15z, but they have been too far north the whole cycle...they look just like the Euro and the GGEM... 1.5", DC and S/SW burbs, 1.25" BWI, 1" line runs from FDK to Havre de Grace, 0.75" to Philly I was about to say that the 21z SREFs looked like the EURO... didn't know that they looked like the GGEM as well until you mentioned it... I thnk that the 00z NAM will be a good run for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z SREF is south of 15z, but they have been too far north the whole cycle...they look just like the Euro and the GGEM... 1.5", DC and S/SW burbs, 1.25" BWI, 1" line runs from FDK to Havre de Grace, 0.75" to Philly Yeah, I would describe it as a correction to come in line with the better guidance. 15z mean was ~1.2" at DCA so it trended wetter for us. I only look to the SREFs for trends so I like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I WAS hoping for 3" to get me to 30. But now...I want 13 to get me to 40. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. Waiting for the next run stinks. Need a hockey stop on the southward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF looks like a solid hit for us, perhaps underperforming in the QPF, but track-wise it is good and now is temperature-wise in line with the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF. I like. Its still a bit slower than the EURO with the 850 line movement though. EURO had the 850 line moving through 2am or so... 21z SREFs are just before 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah just yesterday afternoon I was worried about a devastating ice storm, with maybe an inch or two of snow on top. This is a heck of a lot better. ... and about 2 days before that, the question was if we could even get much frozen precip to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I was about to say that the 21z SREFs looked like the EURO... didn't know that they looked like the GGEM as well until you mentioned it... I thnk that the 00z NAM will be a good run for us agreed. But let's not dismiss the 18z NAM as being awful. That was mostly people complaining who have 60-75" this season, and expect everything to go their way every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 agreed. But let's not dismiss the 18z NAM as being awful. That was mostly people complaining who have 60-75" this season, and expect everything to go their way every storm. Exactly. 18z NAM was fine for us. We need a hold or a tick north. I'm not as confident as you that we'll get the move north, but I think a hold is pretty solid. Regardless, I'm going to be satisfied with what we get...we're not going to get skunked. If we get 4", I'll enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 agreed. But let's not dismiss the 18z NAM as being awful. That was mostly people complaining who have 60-75" this season, and expect everything to go their way every storm. you mean I can't ask for a HECS and get it served to me on a plate? shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 agreed. But let's not dismiss the 18z NAM as being awful. That was mostly people complaining who have 60-75" this season, and expect everything to go their way every storm. True... I am not expecting the 00z NAM to look exactly like the EURO, but I def think that it will come close to it. If the 00z NAM looks like the 18z NAM, thats still fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Exactly. 18z NAM was fine for us. We need a hold or a tick north. I'm not as confident as you that we'll get the move north, but I think a hold is pretty solid. Regardless, I'm going to be satisfied with what we get...we're not going to get skunked. If we get 4", I'll enjoy it. I'm not confident...but I would lean toward a tick north with the precip field...the 18z NAM gave me and you 7-8" of snow...I'd lock that in right now. The NAM and Euro like to dance at this range, and I can't imagine the euro is going to plummet south....It never does that* *except for 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 you mean I can't ask for a HECS and get it served to me on a plate? shoot. when you get a lot of good fortune, you can go one of 2 ways...gratitude or entitlement. People close to and above 40N gravitate toward the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 agreed. But let's not dismiss the 18z NAM as being awful. That was mostly people complaining who have 60-75" this season, and expect everything to go their way every storm. seasonal trend starts to lose its grasp come mid/late FEB it seems to me look what happened in 3/09 and then the wrong direction in mid-late 2/10 to name a few recent years (early-mid, 77, mid 79 after PDI are a couple older ones that come to mind) EDIT: years like 95/96 and 02/03 held them thru MAR, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 seasonal trend starts to lose its grasp come mid/late FEB it seems to me look what happened in 3/09 and then the wrong direction in mid-late 2/10 to name a few recent years (early-mid, 77, mid 79 after PDI are a couple older ones that come to mind) yeah...3/09 went north and 2/26/10 went north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 seasonal trend starts to lose its grasp come mid/late FEB it seems to me look what happened in 3/09 and then the wrong direction in mid-late 2/10 to name a few recent years (early-mid, 77, mid 79 after PDI are a couple older ones that come to mind) EDIT: years like 95/96 and 02/03 held them thru MAR, however I'm pretty sure 2/2 and 2/16 both threw precip further NW than expected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 yeah...3/09 went north and 2/26/10 went north I'm talking changes to the pattern during the year, not necessarily north, south, east, or west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 when you get a lot of good fortune, you can go one of 2 ways...gratitude or entitlement. People close to and above 40N gravitate toward the latter. I'm with Ian. 4" or bust. It's fun to have an event with the potential to do more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.