ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 8" by noon, we just got NAM'd. DC at 9" by 1 p.m., now everyone is going to bear hug the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Oh yeah baby....fredericked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thru 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR is running precip a bit stronger in the northern half of our area than the RAP is. The track is the same, but the QPF is higher. HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014030223&plot_type=all3hap_t3sfc&fcst=00&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1&threshold=&attfn=-1&wjet=0 RAP: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2014030223&plot_type=all3hap_t3sfc&fcst=00&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1&threshold=&attfn=-1&wjet=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgillesp Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 FWIW the SREF has us in the 15:1 ratio zone from 12z onward with a solid .5" falling after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thru 1pm image.jpg Much more to come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM showing rates of an inch+ for a period tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hi ho hi a north movement the NAM wil show Oh, NAM. Nice to see you. Yes, Rip van Winkle finally wakes up! Great to see this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 DC is 0.70" after 9z.....hellz yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It looks to be over by 2 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 10 to 12 CHO to EZF line or so is jackpot area... very nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like we're done at 4/5p now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Oh yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 DC is 0.70" after 9z.....hellz yeah Looks like it's good for the general 6-10" that many have called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 So looking at the vertical velocity does not give a better indication of where thunder may occur, as compared looking at modeled qpf or sim radar? Why do we have the mid and upper level tools if we can discern everything from looking at sim radar and qpf plots? the point is that you really need to look at models from both a "bottom up" and "top down" approach -- i wasn't advocating for one over another but you shouldn't think that looking at 700 uvv's is going to give you the full picture -- for example, thunder can't really be discerned from only vertical velocity (nor sim radar), obviously you need uvv to get thunder but you also have to consider the microphysics needed for lightning initiation and the necessary instability i understand the need to try to find simple tools to attempt to try to improve your forecasting skills -- I think we're just talking two different languages here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 13-18Z tomorrow are rockin'. Oh yeah! USA_ASNOWI1_sfc_018.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'll give the NAM a little credit. I expected this at 6z tomorrow, a few hours into the storm. We pretty much now have complete model agreement for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Solid 10" in DC per the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mason Dixon still getting fringed effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mason Dixon still getting fringed effect. Yes amazing the difference 20 miles will make tomorrow according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k NAM 850s drop below 0 shortly after 3a. I'm sure a warm nose is there so changeover probably after 4a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Oh yeah baby....fredericked well there's still 12 hours until frederick actually ends up fredricked, j/k -- nice wide swath now, can't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like it's good for the general 6-10" that many have called for. yep depending on warm nose could be 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It's funny and sad how I am part of a dying breed who actually forecasts using soundings, QPF, estimated ratios and other intangibles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Can't believe that I will be left out in the cold just 10 miles north of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k NAM 850s drop below 0 shortly after 3a. I'm sure a warm nose is there so changeover probably after 4a. don't tell anyone with maps...a warm nose means nothing to a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 well there's still 12 hours until frederick actually ends up fredricked, j/k -- nice wide swath now, can't complain Come on you have to have at least a few minute head start, when the run was only at 12 hours you knew it was a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The expansion of the precip to the north is actually tighter on the NAM from 18Z. The cutoff actually got worse if you can believe it. According to the 00Z NAM mere miles will separate a big snowstorm from not much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k NAM destroys Virginia, good luck down there gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.