psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro really is a mess. It's weaker but not further south so its also warmer and dryer. Prob no really significant snows anywhere. Looks like where precip is heavy its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro really is a mess. It's weaker but not further south so its also warmer and dryer. Prob no really significant snows anywhere. Looks like where precip is heavy its rain. Euro was heavy rain for your area as well at 12z. Looks similar to 18z GFS. Good run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro was heavy rain for your area as well at 12z. Looks similar to 18z GFS. Good run... 12z ended as about 6" snow here. I doubt anyone in pa gets 6" total this run. It's way warmer and dryer. Where the precip is decent its rain. Northern pa gets some light snows. Prob 3-5" but nothing worth getting excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z ended as about 6" snow here. I doubt anyone in pa gets 6" total this run. It's way warmer and dryer. Where the precip is decent its rain. Northern pa gets some light snows. Prob 3-5" but nothing worth getting excited about. We're really far out, the fact that the storm is still there is key... Details will change... But FWIW this is what I found... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Models better bring it back tomorrow or I'm out like the sharks on Shark Tank...not staying up until 2am for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Models better bring it back tomorrow or I'm out like the sharks on Shark Tank...not staying up until 2am for the Euro If you're looking for a blockbuster storm you're going to be disappointed... However ensembles and the OP ECMWF tonight support definitely a storm potentially producing snow... There is nothing to "bring back" unless its the 00z GFS you're referring to which even its ensembles were further north and wetter. But sure, its mid march and if you aren't interested in tracking a moderate event then I can understand... However verbatim on the Euro it is still a good sized storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Even that snow map which seems way overdone, its even way over the wxbell clown ones, isn't that impressive outside northeast pa. This run is good for the poconos. Prob 6-10" there but the rest of pa not do much. Prob 3-5" from 80 north and 6-10 poconos. 1-2 between 76 and 80. That's what it shows. If that's a good run to you then its a good run. I won't tell anyone what they should be rooting for. For me, once to march I only really want snow if its a big storm. At least 8". I'd rather it warm up otherwise. So for me it's a bad run as its a step away from a big amped up storm that's worth tracking to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Also it's not just gfs. Ggem has a weak south solution now too. Actually I've not seen any 0z guidance that still has the sub 990 amped solution. Seems like a trend towards a weaker dryer less exciting storm on everything tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Even that snow map which seems way overdone, its even way over the wxbell clown ones, isn't that impressive outside northeast pa. This run is good for the poconos. Prob 6-10" there but the rest of pa not do much. Prob 3-5" from 80 north and 6-10 poconos. 1-2 between 76 and 80. That's what it shows. If that's a good run to you then its a good run. I won't tell anyone what they should be rooting for. For me, once to march I only really want snow if its a big storm. At least 8". I'd rather it warm up otherwise. So for me it's a bad run as its a step away from a big amped up storm that's worth tracking to me. I can understand wanting to cheer for a solution like previous European runs, Dont get me wrong I would definitely rather them... but i'd take a decent snow storm over the DRY AND COLD boring 00z GFS run anyday... The map may be a bit overdone but the storm is a 995mb storm south of PA... The R/S line and how 'amped' a system is really comes when we are under 48 hours... This wouldn't take much to be a nice storm for PA... No, not 1993... but a good 3-6", 6-10" snowfall to close out winter and head to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Also it's not just gfs. Ggem has a weak south solution now too. Actually I've not seen any 0z guidance that still has the sub 990 amped solution. Seems like a trend towards a weaker dryer less exciting storm on everything tonight. I know for a fact that the GFS ensembles had a wide range of solutions and the mean was further north and wetter than the OP significantly.... Keep in mind its Friday night, dont be surprised to see the models come back towards the storm idea Sunday/Monday... I mean we saw it trend away from that with the storm earlier this week but for DC, it was a great shift.. Oh well, good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 LOL...and there goes the Home Run threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I hope it's a Williamsport and Wilkes-Barre special. They deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Pine Creek north of the route 220/44 bridges. Never going to get any paddling at this rate. Still plenty of snow pack too.... Be interesting how big of a cluster this storm coming up is with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 LOL...and there goes the Home Run threat.What?The euro drops 2 feet of snow less than 100 miles north of you. Absolutely no way you can call this dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Spotted while on the way home, driving through Williamsport: http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o82/yankeesrule4ever/unnamed_zps91b44057.jpg http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o82/yankeesrule4ever/IMG_20140308_114837_341_zps73df3e04.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Went to the Philly flower show today, let's get spring started. I get a friend $20 MDT wouldn't see another 2" snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Spotted while on the way home, driving through Williamsport: http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o82/yankeesrule4ever/unnamed_zps91b44057.jpg http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o82/yankeesrule4ever/IMG_20140308_114837_341_zps73df3e04.jpg That's just above the Hepburn St. dam. Talking to a fisherman who fishes the river. He said some places along the side of the river. There is a couple feet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 This forum is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 This forum is dead. Nothing interesting going on besides the midweek threat, which is looking more wet than white for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Nothing interesting going on besides the midweek threat, which is looking more wet than white for most. I've been quiet on here last few days but have been keeping an eye on things. Model guidance the last couple days has generally been suggestive of a rain to snow type scenario for especially the central and northern parts of PA, which could amount to something more than a bs coating to an inch of snow at the very end if it stays far enough under PA and deepens pretty decently. Agreement for the overall storm is good for now, but positioning of the frontal boundary and track/strength of the low is going to be crucial to determine where the rain/snow line ends up. 12z GFS doesn't look particularly great, having the low a bit further north and confining the majority of notable snows to upstate NY and perhaps far northern Penn. New Canadian also a bit stronger and further north, running the mason-dixon line. Since things apparently can and have went haywire with model consensus inside of 84 hours, I'm not writing anything off at this point.. but I would say the likelihood looks pretty high that most of us spend at least some time as rain before a possible change to snow. Looks like a pretty typical March storm to me, where a rain to snow scenario would favor northern and maybe central PA for any accumulations. Unfortunately I don't think we pull the Jesus miracle the DC/VA gang pulled off with the southern trend for last weeks storm, as we have a bit of a different setup and a weaker, more sluggish cold air mass that won't act to completely drive the storm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I don't want a Jesus miracle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Per the upstate NY thread, the latest Euro has trended a bit farther SE for you PA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Beware...this may be the one that doesnt get away from us...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Euro was interesting, but the majority of guidance shows mostly/all rain unless you're in the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Euro was interesting, but the majority of guidance shows mostly/all rain unless you're in the northern tier. GFS ensembles have been fairly consistently giving KUNV about 0.4" (in the mean) or so as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I really have to laugh. This really IS a winter centric bulletin board. If there is a snowstorm in the cards for central PA, I can hardly keep up with the posts. But a run of the mill rain event, and it's deader than a doornail. Perhaps we should rename the place the American Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I really have to laugh. This really IS a winter centric bulletin board. If there is a snowstorm in the cards for central PA, I can hardly keep up with the posts. But a run of the mill rain event, and it's deader than a doornail. Perhaps we should rename the place the American Winter. Well, think about it, what would people rather discuss - an 8-12"+ snow event on our doorstep or 40 degrees and an inch of rain? Let's be honest, come wintertime, people are looking for snow and get hyped for big snow. What's so exciting about a run of the mill rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Weather is weather. A true weather hobbyist should appreciate and want to talk about all aspects of it. In the case of this board in general, most folks I guess are winter and snow hobbyists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Weather is weather. A true weather hobbyist should appreciate and want to talk about all aspects of it. In the case of this board in general, most folks I guess are winter and snow hobbyists. I expect frequent posts from you this summer regarding the heat and humidity. That being said, it isn't a "winter" thing, it's an anomalous weather thing. Who wants to avidly discuss mid-60 degree, partly cloudy weather in the middle of spring? Or mid 80's with 90% humidity in late July? Winter, severe, and otherwise "impacting" weather are much more interesting to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I expect frequent posts from you this summer regarding the heat and humidity. That being said, it isn't a "winter" thing, it's an anomalous weather thing. Who wants to avidly discuss mid-60 degree, partly cloudy weather in the middle of spring? Or mid 80's with 90% humidity in late July? Winter, severe, and otherwise "impacting" weather are much more interesting to discuss. Spot-on. Folks interested in weather don't look forward to/show avid interest in a cold inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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