HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I guess I'm thinking closer to the line they're drawing. E.g., I would think HubbDave could easily be scoring in the 14-15" range. Whiteminster similar or better. I guess when I hear "around a foot", I'm thinking there would be many scoring less than a foot. Along and west of that line, I'd think the floor would be higher. Weenie goggles, I guess. 16./14 I had been thinking 8-12" originally. In my head last night I figured a foot. The combo of the dryslot and sleet/ZR could be a big factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You can just see how at the end of that loop the ULL comes in with the backlash over NJ, redeveloping LP east of NJ, watch that tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Now where would one surmise that ccb tonight into tomorrow would go from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Now where would one surmise that ccb tonight into tomorrow would go from there? It's probably heading over your fanny if I had to guess at least with that motion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Now where would one surmise that ccb tonight into tomorrow would go from there?nowcast situation, ULL, even Birmingham Al switched over with good snow when the ULL passed over them. Watch it later, models all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That second (Saturday) system looks sweet on that loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I don't like that I have a dusting right now but that HRRR screams a Classic storm where you want to SE with rain issues vs. NW and lighted precipitation. Makes it like N and W of ORH doesn't get in on the heavy stuff and they change for a time anyway too. But the bad side for me is I only snow heavy for 6 hours. Going to get a foot from 9:30am to 2:30pm? Iiiiii DTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR, Starting to get into range for up here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Boy if that shortwave over southern Minnnesota gets any closer it is going to phase with this sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Boy if that shortwave over southern Minnnesota gets any closer it is going to phase with this sucker. What does phasing mean for laymen like myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Get ready folks MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0700 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATESCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 131300Z - 131800ZSUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HRLIKELY...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THECOASTAL NORTHEASTERN STATES THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL INTENSIFYESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK/NYC METRO INTO SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A TRANSITIONAL MIX OFPRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN COASTAL PLAIN AREAS THROUGH THEAFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITHIN 50-75 MILES OF THE ATLANTIC.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFTEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANSEARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE READILYEVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS AS OF12Z...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR/JUST ABOVE THESURFACE IN COASTAL AREAS AS PER WSR-88D VWP/12Z UPPER AIR DATA.THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION OFCONSIDERABLE UVV FROM THE DELMARVA VICINITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDBY MIDDAY. AS PER 12Z OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...SNOW WILL BE THEDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITHSATURATED MID-LEVEL DENDRITIC LAYERS /SUCH AS 12Z ALBANY ANDNYC-LONG ISLAND SOUNDINGS/ CONDUCIVE FOR BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVYSNOW FROM FAR EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND.IN NEAR-COASTAL AREAS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 50-75 MILES OF THEATLANTIC...A TRANSITIONAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTEDTHROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE LONG ISLAND 12ZOBSERVED SOUNDING WAS ONLY MARGINALLY SUB-0C BELOW 850 MB/1.3 KMAGL. THIS NEAR-COASTAL TRANSITIONAL MIX WILL BE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENTLOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION QUASI-FOCUSED ACROSS THE NYC METROVICINITY/FAR SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What does phasing mean for laymen like myself. Take the two storms and make them one. Which has already happened with our system between two other pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This HRRR loop was posted to the public on twitter.. Meaning I assume non subscribers can take a peek. I think interior ne MA looks best on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR, Starting to get into range for up here now Is that a small 12"-18" spot I see on the SW coast of Maine, including Portland? Would that be because freezing rain/sleet gets counted as snow on these maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think interior ne MA looks best on that. No doubt. Crushing. That puts a damper on the idea of Berkshires jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No doubt. Crushing. That puts a damper on the idea of Berkshires jackpot. Uhh, Berks will see more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No doubt. Crushing. That puts a damper on the idea of Berkshires jackpot. The mid level driven snow is always underestimated by models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think interior ne MA looks best on that.crushed, playing naked twister with the CF will slam you everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New HRRR snowfall forecast(11z) almost identical to previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New HRRR snowfall forecast(11z) almost identical to previous run. And still busted 1hr in on rain snow line on the coast. Other side of the coastal front is a bear. Nam is warm. Let's hope it cools when the heavy arrives as I'm raining way ahead of schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New nam is really warm. Also keeps round two in eastern ny, extreme western ma/ct and runs over powderfeak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM wants more interaction with the midwest energy, obviously a tug NW in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New nam is really warm. Also keeps round two in eastern ny, extreme western ma/ct and runs over powderfeak Pummels the berks but even east to kevin and orh gets some additional inches, so not really extreme west at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdgraves Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is that a small 12"-18" spot I see on the SW coast of Maine, including Portland? Would that be because freezing rain/sleet gets counted as snow on these maps? Well it's titled Snow, hopefully accurately. We're predicted to get enough water for 1'+ if it does stay all snow. I feel like Portland beats the coastal forecast sometimes because Casco is set back from the Cape E and Midcoast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM wants more interaction with the midwest energy, obviously a tug NW in that scenarioIf that's right first one to really buck the winter and pf cleans up. Nice.That's a big shift inside of 6 hours so sketchy until other models arrive. But I followed the euro prior to the 0z run and if areas around me are done with the snow it was way too cold at least prior to 0z. Food for thought for those east of the coastal front only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 The NAM is VERY far west with mid level lows. That's a ALB/VT special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 There's also a lot of elevated CAPE showing up on the overnight model runs. I think that's good for some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Pummels the berks but even east to kevin and orh gets some additional inches, so not really extreme west at all I was speaking of the meaty stinger .5+ which is west this run, not the flabby limp noodle portion of the stinger. Only reason i give these things credence is the initial warmth here may mean setup a little west In every other borderline case this year when i95 did surprisingly well I held on here as long or longer than expected. I folded up like a cheap suit way early this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The NAM is VERY far west with mid level lows. That's a ALB/VT special. Yep. It runs the low over Taunton or boston. It's way west. Doesn't mean it's right but this early warmth has me wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR comes in colder then previous run @ 12z with regards to nw push of r/s line, suggests BOS is snow @ 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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