February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[wxmeddler]

How reliable are these models?

 

Same ballpark as NAM and 4km NAM, they often over do precip.

[nflwxman]

NMM: ~1.75 QPF (maybe slightly more?) for DCA through 48

ARW: ~1.75 QPF (slightly more?) for DCA through 48... 2"+ is just east of the I-95 corridor... parallels it like 20 miles east from BWI to DCA

Do you have a link to these models?

[Deck Pic]

GGEM looks like just over 1"

[yoda]

Do you have a link to these models?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-area.php

 

Click HRW-NMM-EUS and HRW-ARW-EUS to get them

[Ian]

I'm pretty sure I wasn't at 16* midnight the night before the march dream smasher last year

Light snow! And 37 at DCA.  Every ob thru 6p then featured light snow or light rain. Low 34. Good stuff.

 

vort class gone wrong

 

[BTRWx]

Do you have a link to these models?

Click EUS on NCEP, they are easily missed http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php#

[CAPE]

Do you have a link to these models?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

[yoda]

UKMET is ~30mm (just under) QPF... or 1.1" to 1.2" of QPF

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us

 

GGEM -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us

 

About same as UKIE... 1.1" to 1.2" of QPF

[ravensrule]

UKMET is ~30mm (just under) QPF... or 1.1" to 1.2" of QPF

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us

Euro is going to be 1.3-1.4 is my guess.

[welbane]

Look like 0Z models coming drier? I don't se those earlier 1.5"+ QPFs anymore . 

[wxmeddler]

Pure Wx P0rn. NSFW*

* Not Safe for Weenies

[yoda]

Look like 0Z models coming drier? I don't se those earlier 1.5"+ QPFs anymore . 

 

NAM was around there... dunno what RGEM was... mesoscale modes (ARW/NMM) are over 1.5"... globals are 1.1 to 1.2 (tossing GFS out of that for now)

[Jebman]

Snow already developing in N GA spreading into SC, heading for us

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php

[Bob Chill]

Light snow! And 37 at DCA. Every ob thru 6p then featured light snow or light rain. Low 34. Good stuff.

vort class gone wrong

I learned a lot that night. Stayed up till mod sn @ 2am and slept on the vort knowing I would get crushed. When the se jog and tssn reports near ric started flying I got sick to my stomach and STILL didn't know why. Won't happen again

[yoda]

Here we go... biggest 00z EURO run in 4 years is underway... I am hoping it shifts east just a tad in its track so we dont mix as much as 12z said we would

[BTRWx]

Snow already developing in N GA spreading into SC, heading for us

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php

not bad verification so far imo http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'm willing to bet it ticks east just a hair. 

[CAPE]

Here we go... biggest 00z EURO run in 4 years is underway... I am hoping it shifts east just a tad in its track so we dont mix as much as 12z said we would

I wouldnt mind that massive dry slot shrinking or getting further east either.

[Jebman]

not bad verification so far imo http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

At 7pm later today a ton of snow will be knockin' down our door http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=sim_radar&fhr=024&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

At 2am Thursday morning we might have 40 dbZ snows overhead

[CAPE]

So does the euro kill us this run?

I am not going to be too concerned either way. Its often less than stellar inside 24 hours.

[BTRWx]

I wouldnt mind that massive dry slot shrinking or getting further east either.

It basically already is

[Deck Pic]

precip arrives at 7pm

[Bob Chill]

Miller A's move quick. Miller b's move never

[Rjay]

Hr 30. Mod snow ..Where's your pbp?

[Deck Pic]

through 36...stronger low...slightly colder

[Deck Pic]

big panel coming up

[BTRWx]

Hr 30. Mod snow ..Where's your pbp?

What source are you using?

[k94]

UKMET is ~30mm (just under) QPF... or 1.1" to 1.2" of QPF

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us

 

GGEM -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us

 

About same as UKIE... 1.1" to 1.2" of QPF

Ukie no mixing.

[EasternUSWX]

Well euro holds, if not slightly stronger and better. 

[Rjay]

What source are you using?

SV

Hr 36 heavy snow

BTW not from your area. Using DCA as a reference point