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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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definitely has begun. moderate snow, winds gusting to 14 mph, blowing the snow off the roof (that fell earlier today). temp is 27 and dewpoints are dropping too

 

edited to add:  was able to reach my dish to brush it off some this afternoon for satellite tv.  just lost signal again and cant climb up there at this point....music time :guitar:

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definitely has begun. moderate snow, winds gusting to 14 mph, blowing the snow off the roof (that fell earlier today). temp is 27 and dewpoints are dropping too

 

edited to add:  was able to reach my dish to brush it off some this afternoon for satellite tv.  just lost signal again and cant climb up there at this point....music time :guitar:

LIght icing has begun here, and at 3 am, KCHS has dropped to 32 as well.  Light ZR currently here.

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I don't know James, looks like we will have to contend with that warm nose. How bad is the nam and gfs? Lots of freezing rain? Looking for the worst case scenario to be prepared.

The 06z NAM is a total disaster. It's way warmer than every other model at 850 mb and barely gives us any snow before the raging sleet storm. Given that it had us as all-snow at 00z, I find that hard to believe.

The 06z GFS appears to be suffering from some horrible convective feedback issues which just destroy the QPF field.

I would not at all be surprised if we change over to sleet for a few hours, though.

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The 06z NAM is a total disaster. It's way warmer than every other model at 850 mb and barely gives us any snow before the raging sleet storm. Given that it had us as all-snow at 00z, I find that hard to believe.

The 06z GFS appears to be suffering from some horrible convective feedback issues which just destroy the QPF field.

I would not at all be surprised if we change over to sleet for a few hours, though.

There is no flippin way qpf is going to be diminished with how the radar looks right now. Nam looks plain wonky, gfs looks like takes a nice track, I mean 998 off ilm? Looks nice, but you're right it diminishes qpf and I don't buy that.
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There is no flippin way qpf is going to be diminished with how the radar looks right now. Nam looks plain wonky, gfs looks like takes a nice track, I mean 998 off ilm? Looks nice, but you're right it diminishes qpf and I don't buy that.

Cheer yourself up with the 06z RGEM. It even gets Raleigh with the deformation band.

BTW, JBurns, you missed the most epic Euro run I've ever seen for our area.

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Cheer yourself up with the 06z RGEM. It even gets Raleigh with the deformation band.

BTW, JBurns, you missed the most epic Euro run I've ever seen for our area.

I'm on my phone right now, is there any good place to look at it on my phone?

While were on the topic, what exactly is the rgem? It sounds like it's been accurate, I just don't know exactly what it is/who makes it. Sounds related to the ggem?

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I'm on my phone right now, is there any good place to look at it on my phone?

While were on the topic, what exactly is the rgem? It sounds like it's been accurate, I just don't know exactly what it is/who makes it. Sounds related to the ggem?

It is the regional version of the GGEM that goes out to 48 hours.

Meteocentre has good maps for it. I would link you, but I'm also on my phone and when I try to paste something in the post box on this forum, it always screws it up for some reason.

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Also, Pack, the 06z RGEM hammers us and looks almost identical to the Euro.

I'll still split the Euro/RGEM vs. UKMET track and call it a day.

 

Yeah, the GFS fizzled the precip, even though the heaviest axis looks to come up I-85 between CLT and GSO and on NE from there.  The precip should be exploding at that point.  Looks like we know the track looks to be inside of Hatteras around the sounds it looks like. It looked last night like the canadian stayed OFFSHORE.  I don't think we will see a drastic shift now.  Our temperatures are really cold, low to mid 20's during our event.  We are in for a show!  Get some thundersnow and there will be some insane rates.  Bring it on!!!!

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Thoughts and prayers for those under ZR siege. Wanted to ask for recommendations on the best site for low pressure track? I've gone as far as watching the sea buoy reports but wanted to know if

anyone has rolled the data up into a nice visual web-based product that is available to the general

public?

Best of luck to everyone in the coming days.

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Cheer yourself up with the 06z RGEM. It even gets Raleigh with the deformation band.

BTW, JBurns, you missed the most epic Euro run I've ever seen for our area.

 

I was here and read your posts. Even if I had missed it I don't mind missing a model run. There are worse things to miss.  For instance. After staying up all night there is a 60% chance you will be asleep at the height of the storm.

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It is the regional version of the GGEM that goes out to 48 hours.

Meteocentre has good maps for it. I would link you, but I'm also on my phone and when I try to paste something in the post box on this forum, it always screws it up for some reason.

Ok, thanks. I'll just take your word that the 6z is fantastic haha. I'm pretty conked as far as model watching is concerned over the past 2-3 weeks. Bring on radar trends.
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Ok, time for some banter!

 

1) I don't understand the validity of the SREF models.  There is so much variability.  With about 6 hours before the storm starts, the members range from .28" to 15" of snow.  The spread between them is pretty even as well.  Its not like the .28 or 15 are gross outliers.  The math teacher in me can't figure out how this can be used to make a meaningful forecast.  Look at the EPS members which are strongly correlated to each other and tell me how the SREF plumes are not a joke!

 

2)  I can't stand when the TV Weatherfolks hedge there bets by only showing one particular model.  Worse is when they stop the animation before the storm is over so they don't show the entire totals!  I would rather not show any models at all if you are not going to tell the whole story.  Seems very misleading to me. Now that the NWS has jumped in with high accumulation forecasts, the TV folks are showing the entire run.

 

That's all for now....I hope I don't how to rant about warm noses later!

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Would like to add a #3 to packfan:

It is absolutely frustrating when people post the entire discussion from a particular NWS office. Just post the important parts instead of just copy and pasting the entire discussion. It's not like we can't go and read it ourselves. I just dislike all of the unnecessary scrolling.

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Ok, time for some banter!

 

1) I don't understand the validity of the SREF models.  There is so much variability.  With about 6 hours before the storm starts, the members range from .28" to 15" of snow.  The spread between them is pretty even as well.  Its not like the .28 or 15 are gross outliers.  The math teacher in me can't figure out how this can be used to make a meaningful forecast.  Look at the EPS members which are strongly correlated to each other and tell me how the SREF plumes are not a joke!

 

2)  I can't stand when the TV Weatherfolks hedge there bets by only showing one particular model.  Worse is when they stop the animation before the storm is over so they don't show the entire totals!  I would rather not show any models at all if you are not going to tell the whole story.  Seems very misleading to me. Now that the NWS has jumped in with high accumulation forecasts, the TV folks are showing the entire run.

 

That's all for now....I hope I don't how to rant about warm noses later!

 

Forget the models... look at the current radar. Precip is getting dried up on the current radar in the triad . That may change but right now I dont look for this to be a huge hit around here.

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Forget the models... look at the current radar. Precip is getting dried up on the current radar in the triad . That may change but right now I dont look for this to be a huge hit around here.

#4) Jumping off cliffs because it's not currently snowing is also pretty annoying, especially when it isn't even modeled or predicted to start for several more hours in the Triad. Calm down and relax. Just because it isn't snowing currently at your house, doesn't mean the storm is a bust.

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Would like to add a #3 to packfan:

It is absolutely frustrating when people post the entire discussion from a particular NWS office. Just post the important parts instead of just copy and pasting the entire discussion. It's not like we can't go and read it ourselves. I just dislike all of the unnecessary scrolling.

this! And the same ones get posted multiple times. Especially the rah afd.
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GOOD MORNING VIET NAM!!!

Oh wait. Sorry. Flashback.

Good morning anyway. Lets get ready to rock and roll.

Don't you mean,,,Good morning civil war!??jk

Good luck today! Sleet is going to temper my run for a personal best snow, but 6-12+ of sleet and snow, I will take! Yes it is agonizing being on the extreme northern edge of the precip shiel now

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#4) Jumping off cliffs because it's not currently snowing is also pretty annoying, especially when it isn't even modeled or predicted to start for several more hours in the Triad. Calm down and relax. Just because it isn't snowing currently at your house, doesn't mean the storm is a bust.

 

Never said it was a bust, but looking at current radar it does look as if alot of the precip trying to build up here is getting eat up.

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Never said it was a bust, but looking at current radar it does look as if alot of the precip trying to build up here is getting eat up.

Please re-read the part where I said it isn't even modeled to start for several more hours in the triad. This storm is evolving how we all thought t would. The only reason you don't have snow falling is because the precipitation just hasn't made it's way that far north, YET. It's not a dry slot.

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this! And the same ones get posted multiple times. Especially the rah afd.

 

I agree.  I did post the one from Raleigh yesterday afternoon.  I was the first to post it, trimmed it to only the discussion of the storm, and bolded the important sentences.  Unlike others, I read every post in the thread, so I would have enough sense to delete it if it had already been posted.  I have to do that sometimes when others post a graphic before I do.  Folks should read everything before posting... It's going to be a crazy day!!!

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