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NCsandhills

Burns' Big Banter Bonanza

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Guys I have to ask how much Fayetteville is looking at. I have 4 kids, 1 car and 5 classes to get to...lol. Is it looking like an all mix/sleet event for Fay? zr? snow? rain? help a brother out. :(

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Guys I have to ask how much Fayetteville is looking at. I have 4 kids, 1 car and 5 classes to get to...lol. Is it looking like an all mix/sleet event for Fay? zr? snow? rain? help a brother out. :(

You really should just look at the official NWS forecast. They usually do a good job and they also balance model uncertainty, past trends and biases better than we do on the forum.

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That sucks, Grit! There is a possible solution, however, that would negate the frustration of not being able to be here during a huge winter storm, but I'm not going to say it.

 

500 mile NW trend?  :yikes: 

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I'm glad that most of our members and our moderators do a great job separating the real discussions and the banter into two different threads.  We do this on a regular basis which will make sorting through the threads a bit easier.  The MA forum never really separates banter and discussion threads so when they go into a real "Storm Mode" they have a mess on their hands.  Ji unleashed times 1000 over there.  

 

Special thanks to the mods for keeping our storm thread as clean as possible!!  NOW BRING ON THE SNOW!!!...That is all...

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What a balmy night here in the triad. On the back deck grilling and thinking about boating weather. Sucks that we must endure a foot of snow first...........wayne and garth dream sequence.........

Seriously, what an amazing run the models have had with this storm. We went from models not agreeing with themselves, much less each other, to (mostly) agreeing from 7+ days out. Cant wait for the post mortem on this one!

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I'm surprised there hasn't been any discussion about the snow event for the northern half of NC tomorrow.  RAH doesn't think an advisory is needed (my zone forecast is for up to 1/2"), but it should make for some good scenes with the snow falling.  A dusting would be a nice preview. :)

 

BTW, I've got snow in my NWS zone forecast every day from tomorrow until Thursday.  You don't see that every day!

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:whistle:

 

Hey, don't you think with this strong a SLP right over Hatteras we flip to rain with a retreating HP into the Atlantic?

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Hey, don't you think with this strong a SLP right over Hatteras we flip to rain with a retreating HP into the Atlantic?

Jan 2000 was a pretty strong low pretty close to the coast, right? Or was it farther offshore?

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I'm surprised there hasn't been any discussion about the snow event for the northern half of NC tomorrow. RAH doesn't think an advisory is needed (my zone forecast is for up to 1/2"), but it should make for some good scenes with the snow falling. A dusting would be a nice preview. :)

That's Justin Bieber. We're waiting for Michael Jackson to hit the stage.

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:whistle:

Thanks for the thoughts in the other thread. HP sliding out is like this albatross out there. I *hope* most of the damage is done by the time it would matter....

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Hey, don't you think with this strong a SLP right over Hatteras we flip to rain with a retreating HP into the Atlantic?

I think we could definitely go to sleet/freezing rain. The 18z NAM actually has dew points dropping as the storm pushed away. We get real close to 30 dew point before it starts dropping back into the 20s.

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Hey, don't you think with this strong a SLP right over Hatteras we flip to rain with a retreating HP into the Atlantic?

 

UL forcing aside (which will be the determining factor), this should track over the Gulf Stream, all things being equal, path of least resistance.

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I'm surprised there hasn't been any discussion about the snow event for the northern half of NC tomorrow.  RAH doesn't think an advisory is needed (my zone forecast is for up to 1/2"), but it should make for some good scenes with the snow falling.  A dusting would be a nice preview. :)

 

BTW, I've got snow in my NWs zone forecast every day from tomorrow until Thursday.  You don't see that every day!

Yeah James, I was looking at the Bufkit data and the gfs puts down 1.7 inches tomorrow.  The nam has nothing.  We may want to look close at the next sref plumes to see if there are any surprises.  It's hard to predict the overrunning finger of moisture like we had in the last storm.  It completely missed me to the north.  I only ended up with about 1/2 inch of snow.  I'm ready to catch up for the last two winters this week!

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I'm surprised there hasn't been any discussion about the snow event for the northern half of NC tomorrow.  RAH doesn't think an advisory is needed (my zone forecast is for up to 1/2"), but it should make for some good scenes with the snow falling.  A dusting would be a nice preview. :)

 

BTW, I've got snow in my NWs zone forecast every day from tomorrow until Thursday.  You don't see that every day!

 

 

also be nice to get a decent dusting to cool down the ground temps so none of the big stuff gets wasted :)

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