Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 it's obviously not going to trend well....the setup is horrible and the models have a bias of showing events that are incongruous with their own advertised long wave patterns....The models will eventually get rid of the ridiculous solutions and we get rain or a whiff....NEVER the other way around...The chances that the Euro is underdoing the snow or is too warm is 0%....that isn't the way models work in DC....models "think" our average seasonal snowfall is 60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 different models naturally have different biases at certain ranges...however ALL of them from every range have a bias of giving DC too much snow..every single model at every single hour.....You will never hear the following words uttered "I believe DC will get 6-8" and not the 1-2" then rain that X model advertises. X model tends do underdo cold and snow in DC metro in the 48-72 hour range. I think it is safe to say, the 32 degree contour will be 50 miles southeast of where it is on the model, and QPF will double. I also expect the 1028mb high that moves off the coast to hold in place and actually be 1040mb, because the model tends to underdo high pressure, blocks, and blocking lows. The model is advertising a surface temperature at DCA of 34 degrees at 15z. I believe it will be closer to 27." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 different models naturally have different biases at certain ranges...however ALL of them from every range have a bias of giving DC too much snow..every single model at every single hour.....You will never hear the following words uttered "I believe DC will get 6-8" and not the 1-2" then rain that X model advertises. X model tends do underdo cold and snow in DC metro in the 48-72 hour range. I think it is safe to say, the 32 degree contour will be 50 miles southeast of where it is on the model, and QPF will double. I also expect the 1028mb high that moves off the coast to hold in place and actually be 1040mb, because the model tends to underdo high pressure, blocks, and blocking lows. The model is advertising a surface temperature at DCA of 34 degrees at 15z. I believe it will be closer to 27." Post made me lol. But its correct. I bet if you tally up all the modeled snow for DC since December, within 5 days on the Euro op, must be something like 35"..or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 So Matt, you're telling me that there's a slim chance this plot is overdone and I should just accept member #5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 So Matt, you're telling me that there's a slim chance this plot is overdone and I should just accept member #5? epsmembers.JPG 1st, that's Gaithersberg not DCA and 2nd, how many times have there been EPS members similar with nothing to show for it? Quite a few I believe wrt to question 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1st, that's Gaithersberg not DCA and 2nd, how many times have there been EPS members similar with nothing to show for it? Quite a few I believe wrt to question 2 I was going to post bwi but it was all rain and I didn't want to upset you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I was going to post bwi but it was all rain and I didn't want to upset you. better to know now than to spend 5 days on it and then find out the night before (see, I really do live in the area!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 there's something really fishy about those ensemble snow forecasts Bob, as if you didn't already know here's the entire 360 EPS total snowfall run off another site....the mean for 360 hrs is no where near the mean you show for this one event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Guys we need to remember that any solution a model shows IS possible. A model can't spit out an impossible solution despite what DT may tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Guys we need to remember that any solution a model shows IS possible. A model can't spit out an impossible solution despite what DT may tell you. of course it is possible...just usually not likely if it is showing a snow solution for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 of course it is possible...just usually not likely if it is showing a snow solution for DC You act like we are Raleigh, or even Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You act like we are Raleigh, or even Richmond. The models act like we are Jay Peak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Lol, Jay Peak. That is some funny S. And true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Mitch, the maps are inherently flawed in marginal temp situations. If the 6 hour panel starts with 850's below zero then precip is counted all snow. Surface is taken into consideration some but I can't figure where the break is. Other lower level and mid level temps aren't considered at all. The algorithm needs some serious improvement but they are still an ok guide as long as you look at the surface and 850 mean panels to hedge properly. I personally have low expectations for next week unless we see some big changes across the envelope. The only reason I got stoked on the storm in the first place is because it first presented itself with a solid thump of overunning far in front of the parent low/vort. That's not complicated for us. Moisture overunning a boundary and being plenty cold. As soon as that went poof I knew we were in trouble. But that can still come back. We don't have much clarity still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ideally, you would do this calculation on-line within the numerical model and dump the output every 3/6 hours. It almost sounds like the calculation is done off-line using output that is archived every 3/6 hours. Does anyone know what is done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The overrunning will come back. All we have to do is believe......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm thinking over the next 10-14 days we get something good. Call me stupid if you want. Wait.....don't......call me that. Please. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm thinking over the next 10-14 days we get something good. Call me stupid if you want. Wait.....don't......call me that. Please. LOL You out, bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's hard keeping track who's in/who's out considering the same people jump back and forth constantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 You out, bro? All in, bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It can't precipitate here well unless it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm in, either for the WAA storm or the follow up to the torch. I do not like the setup with the midweek storm, it has potential but I think the low to the west has a very high possibility of screwing up any cold air as it wanders along the GOM coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Get a load of this. What the hell is he saying here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 00z GGEM is back with moisture laden storm Wed night into Thursday... but a mix of crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Sneaking by at 120 again on 00z EURO... 850s -1 to -2 with a 1010 L east of Hatteras by 100 miles or so 0c line just SE of CHO and just south of EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 warmer and drier as predicted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 warmer and drier as predicted.... warmer at surface? cause 850s are fine though barely.... and SE thread was talking lot of freezing rain on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 warmer and drier as predicted.... it's definitely moving the wrong way even if it still looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it's definitely moving the wrong way even if it still looks ok we all know we arent getting a snowstorm this week...whether it dies a slow model death or not...it's over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it's definitely moving the wrong way even if it still looks ok I figure it has to look more than okay if NC peeps are talking about lots of ice and 6"+ snows in I-85 area and even ice into SC... so someone is playing around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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