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February Medium/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr

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This board swings from ultra, cancel winter, drown your kids, throw the toaster in the bathtub lows to cocaine highs in the matter of a few hours every single day. It's the closest thing to a psyche ward that exists on the Internet.

You should see the stamp collecting boards. Those guys are fookin' nuts. 

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MATT, skewt for DCA at 138 hrs off the 12Z run is BETTER than last night and is isothermal at just UNDER 32 degrees from 850 down until surface temp of .3+

it's actually a hair better than BWI because, as I said in the last thread, it seems further west with this system makes more of a difference than north

 

Thanks...

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So you're saying we have a chance....

 

Trend is the wrong way. With the pv dropping down in that position is allows weak ridging in se canada. Basically it bends the confluence which would aid in the hp to the north slipping away faster.

 

However, as of right now the EPS is in pretty good agreement with the op. Decent precip spreading in here by 7pm Wednesday into a cold airmass. Basically, the mean looks like a smoothed out version of the op. Very similar. 

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Trend is the wrong way. With the pv dropping down in that position is allows weak ridging in se canada. Basically it bends the confluence which would aid in the hp to the north slipping away faster.

 

However, as of right now the EPS is in pretty good agreement with the op. Decent precip spreading in here by 7pm Wednesday into a cold airmass. Basically, the mean looks like a smoothed out version of the op. Very similar. 

which is exactly what we've faced most of the winter in the medium term

this week, though, the bad trends have become part of the short term too

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which is exactly what we've faced most of the winter in the medium term

this week, though, the bad trends have become part of the short term too

 

It's not as bad as it sounds for now. There are other things that help. The cold hp is going to be there. The model seems set on getting things going and plows the shield right up into us with some time to spare. 

 

We'll be lucky to get snow here. That has to be accepted. Even if we do it will mix and rain at some point. 

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Yes.  Agreed.  It's happy hour now Bob.  Lay some good news on us.

 

I already said the EPS agrees with the op. Front end snow starting Wed evening and continuing. It has little support but the fact that the euro op and eps mostly agree is good news. And this is a very fragile setup with a lot going against it. I'm an honest optimist

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I already said the EPS agrees with the op. Front end snow starting Wed evening and continuing. It has little support but the fact that the euro op and eps mostly agree is good news. And this is a very fragile setup with a lot going against it. I'm an honest optimist

I know I know.  Just messin.  ;)

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GFS is looking like a **** sandwich.

 

Let's take bets....who folds first, the GFS or the Euro?   Place your bet and give a time when your horse folds.

 

 

My bet:  Euro, folds tonight 0z

 

Euro folds, but not until beginning of next week.  Warm rain for all!

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Guys..this is tending towards the EURO...this is showing what the euro has shown like DT has said..Im a lurker in here..but I don't buy the GFS although ---wow..it shows a warm coastal riding the coast..not a southern slide off..this is closer to EURO...What say you..

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This is no Miller A shown in the 18z gfs.    Great lakes low pushes in so fast.. it pulls what ever crap was left in the South East causing a nice slug of rain to come up. 

 

 

Yea, it took the ns vort to tug on the mess to get it organized. I'm going to strike this run from my mind and not discuss it any further. 

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This is no Miller A shown in the 18z gfs.    Great lakes low pushes in so fast.. it pulls what ever crap was left in the South East causing a nice slug of rain to come up. 

 

Its what the JMA shows (not the warmth) but a similar evolution at the energy out in the NW catches up fairly quickly and is the dominant feature. 

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Guys..this is tending towards the EURO...this is showing what the euro has shown like DT has said..Im a lurker in here..but I don't buy the GFS although ---wow..it shows a warm coastal riding the coast..not a southern slide off..this is closer to EURO...What say you..

 

It's not at all like the euro in the upper levels. The euro is a southern vort that amplifies and comes up. The gfs is a southern mess that gets vacuumed up by the digging northern stream. They are completely different in that important way. The gfs version will never become snow as long as the ns becomes dominant.  

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