84 Hour NAM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This board swings from ultra, cancel winter, drown your kids, throw the toaster in the bathtub lows to cocaine highs in the matter of a few hours every single day. It's the closest thing to a psyche ward that exists on the Internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This board swings from ultra, cancel winter, drown your kids, throw the toaster in the bathtub lows to cocaine highs in the matter of a few hours every single day. It's the closest thing to a psyche ward that exists on the Internet. You should see the stamp collecting boards. Those guys are fookin' nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I just lined up the last 4 eps runs @ 12z Wed. Pretty easy to see now that you told me to look at it. Today's run is definitely the strongest and furthest SE of the 4 runs. So you're saying we have a chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 MATT, skewt for DCA at 138 hrs off the 12Z run is BETTER than last night and is isothermal at just UNDER 32 degrees from 850 down until surface temp of .3+ it's actually a hair better than BWI because, as I said in the last thread, it seems further west with this system makes more of a difference than north Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 So you're saying we have a chance.... Trend is the wrong way. With the pv dropping down in that position is allows weak ridging in se canada. Basically it bends the confluence which would aid in the hp to the north slipping away faster. However, as of right now the EPS is in pretty good agreement with the op. Decent precip spreading in here by 7pm Wednesday into a cold airmass. Basically, the mean looks like a smoothed out version of the op. Very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Trend is the wrong way. With the pv dropping down in that position is allows weak ridging in se canada. Basically it bends the confluence which would aid in the hp to the north slipping away faster. However, as of right now the EPS is in pretty good agreement with the op. Decent precip spreading in here by 7pm Wednesday into a cold airmass. Basically, the mean looks like a smoothed out version of the op. Very similar. which is exactly what we've faced most of the winter in the medium term this week, though, the bad trends have become part of the short term too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 84 hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 which is exactly what we've faced most of the winter in the medium term this week, though, the bad trends have become part of the short term too It's not as bad as it sounds for now. There are other things that help. The cold hp is going to be there. The model seems set on getting things going and plows the shield right up into us with some time to spare. We'll be lucky to get snow here. That has to be accepted. Even if we do it will mix and rain at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't like negative bob. Bring back positive bob. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't like negative bob. Bring back positive bob. Sent from my iPhone Yes. Agreed. It's happy hour now Bob. Lay some good news on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yes. Agreed. It's happy hour now Bob. Lay some good news on us. I already said the EPS agrees with the op. Front end snow starting Wed evening and continuing. It has little support but the fact that the euro op and eps mostly agree is good news. And this is a very fragile setup with a lot going against it. I'm an honest optimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I already said the EPS agrees with the op. Front end snow starting Wed evening and continuing. It has little support but the fact that the euro op and eps mostly agree is good news. And this is a very fragile setup with a lot going against it. I'm an honest optimist I know I know. Just messin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 84 hr NAM 2 inches coming. Lock it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z GFS looks like a hodgepodge through 105... weak low off SE coast and moisture back in the South.. What exactly are we looking for at 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS is looking like a **** sandwich. Let's take bets....who folds first, the GFS or the Euro? Place your bet and give a time when your horse folds. My bet: Euro, folds tonight 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think they meet in the middle. And since we have no wiggle room with the euro... You could see it early in the 18z run that nothing was going to organize and come up. No amp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And I stand corrected. Miller A rainstorms are awesome in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS is looking like a **** sandwich. Let's take bets....who folds first, the GFS or the Euro? Place your bet and give a time when your horse folds. My bet: Euro, folds tonight 0z Euro folds, but not until beginning of next week. Warm rain for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is no Miller A shown in the 18z gfs. Great lakes low pushes in so fast.. it pulls what ever crap was left in the South East causing a nice slug of rain to come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 0.65"? or so...gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Guys..this is tending towards the EURO...this is showing what the euro has shown like DT has said..Im a lurker in here..but I don't buy the GFS although ---wow..it shows a warm coastal riding the coast..not a southern slide off..this is closer to EURO...What say you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is no Miller A shown in the 18z gfs. Great lakes low pushes in so fast.. it pulls what ever crap was left in the South East causing a nice slug of rain to come up. Yea, it took the ns vort to tug on the mess to get it organized. I'm going to strike this run from my mind and not discuss it any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Guys..this is tending towards the EURO...this is showing what the euro has shown like DT has said..Im a lurker in here..but I don't buy the GFS although ---wow..it shows a warm coastal riding the coast..not a southern slide off..this is closer to EURO...What say you.. seems believable and realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And I stand corrected. Miller A rainstorms are awesome in Feb. Finally--positive Bob is back. That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is no Miller A shown in the 18z gfs. Great lakes low pushes in so fast.. it pulls what ever crap was left in the South East causing a nice slug of rain to come up. Its what the JMA shows (not the warmth) but a similar evolution at the energy out in the NW catches up fairly quickly and is the dominant feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z GFS looks like a hodgepodge through 105... weak low off SE coast and moisture back in the South.. What exactly are we looking for at 120? a rainbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 a rainbow At the end of it...you find your pot of gold...sprinkled with minced unicorn meat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Guys..this is tending towards the EURO...this is showing what the euro has shown like DT has said..Im a lurker in here..but I don't buy the GFS although ---wow..it shows a warm coastal riding the coast..not a southern slide off..this is closer to EURO...What say you.. It's not at all like the euro in the upper levels. The euro is a southern vort that amplifies and comes up. The gfs is a southern mess that gets vacuumed up by the digging northern stream. They are completely different in that important way. The gfs version will never become snow as long as the ns becomes dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Its what the JMA shows (not the warmth) but a similar evolution at the energy out in the NW catches up fairly quickly and is the dominant feature.one analog showing up a lot was feb 72 and that is how the storm developed. That managed to be ok for the area but storm bombed fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS may very well be closer in its depiction than the Euro. Just not a good 500 mb look. Areas well inland could get a nice thump of snow, but I don't expect trends in the guidance to be good for I-95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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