CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I can't recall such model disagreement. GEFS are bullish too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 06z RGEM is pretty bullish as well, Tracks LP thru the GOM 1004mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well we said yesterday the Euro just doesn't handle these northern stream progressive systems well. We thought it would start catching on at 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Enjoy it coastal peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Enjoy it coastal peeps GFS is region wide. I dunno....I somehow have to think the GFS is a little too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS is region wide. I dunno....I somehow have to think the GFS is a little too aggressive. I think S CT, S RI, SE MA get 1-2. Flurries up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think S CT, S RI, SE MA get 1-2. Flurries up here.Nah 2-4 6" lolli's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nah 2-4 6" lolli'sI could see someone in the CC to S RI area getting 3-4". Maybe into the TAN area? Dry air needs to be scooted away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS is region wide. I dunno....I somehow have to think the GFS is a little too aggressive. Can you regionwide 1-3? it does sref and RGEM support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I dunno', this must have some legs because NWS Albany is going 1-2" all the way up into Saratoga County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 nice post bro, I agree with everything you said. James is good people. Thanks. I think we just need to sit back and watch the models some more and hope we get a consensus sooner rather than later, the models are all over the place with the energy in the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Can you regionwide 1-3? it does sref and RGEM support SREFs I don't care, but the RGEM looked like 1-2. I really would hesitate to think more until today's runs come in. Someone is going to cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well 09z SREFs not backing away. GFS may be overdone, I guess we finf out today, eh. This system is panning out sort of how I envisioned it. Lead s/w that passed S out us got out of the way so we can allow this follow-up system to sharper/dig enough. Nothing spectacular. C-2" would still be my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah SREFs look similar to 03z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 remember back in the old days when clippers used to hit the jersey shore and BOOM!! heavy snow region wide right into cne too, these hardly ever happen anymore like i remember My dream storm from the old days if this is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah SREFs look similar to 03z to me. If you look at the SREF plumes for BDL and BOS... by far the best "clustering" is around 0.05" of QPF. The mean is being skewed by some wild ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This sounds sort of silly but it's weird seeing the GFS blowing the low up like that and not the NAM. Odd for a global to be so bullish on a setup like that and not one of our non-hydrostatic models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If you look at the SREF plumes for BDL and BOS... by far the best "clustering" is around 0.05" of QPF. The mean is being skewed by some wild ARW members. There are some out of control members..lol. I still have some doubts with this, but I guess we'll see if the GFS holds. Maybe a 1-2 deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This sounds sort of silly but it's weird seeing the GFS blowing the low up like that and not the NAM. Odd for a global to be so bullish on a setup like that and not one of our non-hydrostatic models. I said the same thing. I would expect the NAM to do this, not the GFS and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM coming it a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is still meh, although slightly better at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just plan on 1-3. We've been saying it for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'll bet the GFS backs off in the next run or two. An inch or two seems ok though...I would be surprised if this came all the way back as a widespread solid advisory event so close in as I had said last night, but I hope I'm wrong and the GFS/SREF are leading the way. Usually though its kind of a red flag to see the Euro and even a weenie model like the NAM pretty tame. RGEM isn't bad, but not like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If you look at the SREF plumes for BDL and BOS... by far the best "clustering" is around 0.05" of QPF. The mean is being skewed by some wild ARW members.03z had the main cluster of 2-3.5" snow for IJD, 09z looks like what you described for BDL, main cluster around 1". Maybe not a huge difference but it's hard to consider them reliable with respect to that level of detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'll bet the GFS backs off in the next run or two. An inch or two seems ok though...I would be surprised if this came all the way back as a widespread solid advisory event so close in as I had said last night, but I hope I'm wrong and the GFS/SREF are leading the way. Usually though its kind of a red flag to see the Euro and even a weenie model like the NAM pretty tame. RGEM isn't bad, but not like the GFS. GFS typically overdoes things. NAM and others show some precip working down from the north along the coast as the "larger" system moves in so in banding it could still get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 RGEM still looks reasonable for an inch or two. Also, will have to see if a convergence band tomorrow clips Cape Ann or parts of the MA coastline. It's modeled offshore as of now..but might sneak into some cstl communities..perhaps on the north shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 RGEM still looks reasonable for an inch or two. Also, will have to see if a convergence band tomorrow clips Cape Ann or parts of the MA coastline. It's modeled offshore as of now..but might sneak into some cstl communities..perhaps on the north shore. Yeah I posted this in the wrong thread. RGEM was a step better than the 0z IMO. " RGEM came in pretty juicy. Has that same bullseye that is going to try to work down the shoreline as the moisture from the SW moves in. Regionwide precip." They all hint at that max zone sliding down the coast. I like the RGEM trend. This will be a tight squeeze although I still think the GFS backs down a bit to consensus. 1-2" but there's the potential for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The radar looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah I posted this in the wrong thread. RGEM was a step better than the 0z IMO. " RGEM came in pretty juicy. Has that same bullseye that is going to try to work down the shoreline as the moisture from the SW moves in. Regionwide precip." They all hint at that max zone sliding down the coast. I like the RGEM trend. This will be a tight squeeze although I still think the GFS backs down a bit to consensus. 1-2" but there's the potential for more. I'm pretty sure the GFS backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS backed off...1-2" for most. We'll have to watch for spot enhancement totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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