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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion III


Marion_NC_WX

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Well, looks like the false snow radar returns was it for the upstate. And now we are past climo. So, what's winter 2014-2015 looking like? :cry:  :snowing:

lol - i am about ready to agree. true it can still snow in march, but the deeper we get into march the much less likely it is (esp for n ga)  any frozen precip is fine by me, but these dreadful 33 and rainstorms can say good bye.  spring storms tend to give snow under ull or the infamous bowling balls.  if youre under one they are great, but just a few miles away and you are watching someone else get clobbered with snow

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1798652_463354130432618_550206594_n.jpg

The way the temperature profiles line up would probably mean the trough lines up that way too. That definitely would give the SE a high amplitude flow possibly verifying a east coast snowstorm nearby.

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this would be good but the lack of cold air is killing our chances for snow with all these good looking storms.  :axe:

 

That's why he said "Mid South to Mid Atlantic." If you look at the track of the storm he referenced, it's north and west of the area. You're not going to get winter weather out of that.

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On the other board, someone posted a Euro map for next Thursday, hr 162 total snowfall, and there was a big bullseye of 12+ snowfall on the clown maps for most of the Western Carolinas! Winters not over yet !! :cry:

ok guys I'm ready to move on since this was a dud.  is there something more to watch for the end of next week or is it time to give up.  I'm tired.  I was so excited yesterday evening under a winter storm warning for heavy snow overnight to wake up this morning to a cold rain all night.  Think I'm ready for spring so I can take a rest and not get to excited over nothing.  :cry:

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ok guys I'm ready to move on since this was a dud. is there something more to watch for the end of next week or is it time to give up. I'm tired. I was so excited yesterday evening under a winter storm warning for heavy snow overnight to wake up this morning to a cold rain all night. Think I'm ready for spring so I can take a rest and not get to excited over nothing. :cry:

Apparently , it's an appsrunner , followed by a cold shot. Winters over!
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ok guys I'm ready to move on since this was a dud.  is there something more to watch for the end of next week or is it time to give up.  I'm tired.  I was so excited yesterday evening under a winter storm warning for heavy snow overnight to wake up this morning to a cold rain all night.  Think I'm ready for spring so I can take a rest and not get to excited over nothing.  :cry:

 

Though some areas definitely aren't done yet.. as a whole I think we should start going for Spring.  There are a lot of factors like temps, sun angle.  I do think we will be colder than normal for a bit.  Modeling has been pretty crazy with that.

 

Overall, I think we had a great Winter compared to the last couple of years.  There has been talk of an El Nino popping up for next Winter. :)

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I'm going to Hilton Head in two weeks, hope its 75 everyday, will enjoy bike riding, relaxing and some swimming.  Plus spend time with daughters and grandchildren.  watch while I'm gone Asheville will get a nice snow.   That's ok, ready for spring and wait for next winter with hopefully an El Nino winter.  :whistle:

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just saw Jason on wlos tv news and he is saying colder next thursday 13th with a chance of snow, any thoughts on this, has anyone looked at the models for next week. not so sure about an apps. runner the way jason is talking.

Spring does not start till May up your way! I haven't seen anybody on here talking on here about next weeks storm, probably worn out or missing power? On the other board , they said the snow line is in the Ohio valley now!

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just saw Jason on wlos tv news and he is saying colder next thursday 13th with a chance of snow,  any thoughts on this, has anyone looked at the models for next week.  not so sure about an apps. runner the way jason is talking. 

 

Its possible.

12z euro has the SLP  from AR to VA. 12z GFS from Ar/LA to NC. 12z CMC is north of both well into the NE for any potential wrap around.

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Lived in NC most my life.  If there isn't a big storm within the focal lengths of the models now...

... ain't gonna happen outside the mountains.  March 1983 last I remember.  Even that was a bit localized.

The meter is almost out on the climatology aspect.

 

Did live in Banner Elk, NC for 3 years.  Thundersnow in March, early April was fun!!!

Remember running round nearly naked while it snowed kitchen sponges for almost an hour.

4".  My wife had to wave bacon outside the front door, while the dogs were barking madly, to

get me back into the 'tilting trailer" we were living.  Most fun I ever had with some of my clothes on.

 

Maybe, just... maybe.

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Remember a storm in the Pisgah area (NC) about 30 years ago that dropped about 40" of snow very quickly.

Made the news.  Can't find a ref, however.  It was localized.

 

About 1980, or so.  Anybody know about this?

May 7, 1992.  Reports indicate 57 inches on Mt. Pisgah.  Mt. Mitchell received 22 inches.  Reportedly, a boy scout troop in springtime hiking gear were stranded in the nearby GSM National Park and rescued by the NC National Guard using helicopters.

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Pretaining to spring coming. Its not coming anytime soon. Feb might be a lamb but March is a lion. Cold April showers will eventually bring May late flowers.

 

Considering the chaos on the models 3/13 is still on the table even though still out in time.

 

Too early to get into the specifics but Goofus is a disaster but further south slightly with the 3/13 system from 12z. GFS might be overboard with the WAA coming prior too. But its south and presistent with the general threat of a storm. Not going to stay up for later runs. 

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Pretaining to spring coming. Its not coming anytime soon. Feb might be a lamb but March is a lion. Cold April showers will eventually bring May late flowers.

 

Considering the chaos on the models 3/13 is still on the table even though still out in time.

 

Too early to get into the specifics but Goofus is a disaster but further south slightly with the 3/13 system from 12z. GFS might be overboard with the WAA coming prior too. But its south and presistent with the general threat of a storm. Not going to stay up for later runs. 

that would put the icing on the cake with 3/13 being the anniversary of the storm of the century (blizzard) 3/13/93

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May 7, 1992.  Reports indicate 57 inches on Mt. Pisgah.  Mt. Mitchell received 22 inches.  Reportedly, a boy scout troop in springtime hiking gear were stranded in the nearby GSM National Park and rescued by the NC National Guard using helicopters.

Here is an interesting piece on it discussing whether not that total was correct. Still a hell of a lot of damn snow though. That had to be really something happening in may. Pretty damn cold too for may in the lower elevations with temps in the 40s.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/anniversary-of-freak-five-feet-of-nc-snow/18831

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I'm looking to get my funtime upper low around the 17th.  Bring it's own cold air, drop  down and pass by around Columbus again, lol.  And in March it won't melt as it falls like last time.  Come on doggies, I'm ready for some snow since sleet looks less and less likely!!  T

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12 z a dumpster fire? I'm ready for one more! A 10 day March threat, what could go wrong with that?

 

 

12z only out to 138 on Weatherbell...remember the time change today. 12z GFS run starts around noon and then takes about an hour...Euro will be rolling in 2:30-ish today.

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