GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Per hour 132, looks like 0Z Euro precip. shield will center itself a bit further west at least initially vs. the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yes, further south this run through 12z thur....2m a little colder....qpf about to make it into norther portions of ms/al/ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The western ridge is situated a bit further west at hr 120 compared to the 12z run. Our storm is slower than 12z, but the HP looks to be a bit further west, as well. The strength of the HP between the 12z and the 00z runs is pretty identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Someone is about to get CRUSHED!!! Stronger with H5 look at hr144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 850s suggest the ULL is producing heavy wet snow in Alabama this run. Raging sleet storm for the first portion of the storm at least for the western Piedmont with snow in the mountains and maybe the western foothills. The surface low tracks a little inland, which kind of screws over the Piedmont of NC as far as snow goes... verbatim. It's close to the 12z solution, but small differences mean a lot. The mountains get crushed. Move the low offshore and more of us are in the game, though. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Someone is about to get CRUSHED!!! Stronger with H5 look at hr144 Based on my recall, a sub 546 dm upper low typically produces snow underneath or near it. I'm breathing more easily as this run didn't disappoint at all considering how perfect was the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not so good run for us in GA so far.....AL would get HAMMERED with snow. The 2m temps are warmer out front as well. edit...strip of snow alont I-20, but euro 2m temps are too warm....that is a helluva band tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Based on my recall, a sub 546 dm upper low typically produces snow underneath or near it. I'm breathing more easily as this run didn't disappoint at all considering how perfect was the prior run. me either...for GA it was quite of bit worse...(verbatim) but overall, a very good sign as the euro actually got better position with the CAD, and H5 looks like a beast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Both the 850's and surface temps a bit warmer for Western North Carolina this run...but still cold enough for a major paste bomb (8-12 inches) for the mountains/foothills and back into Northeast GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 BTW, the CAD signal for the 00z GEFS looks better than 18z. It's been trending better in that regard for quite a few runs now with baby steps each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gotta say, not impressed with the temps with the sfs low. BUT the ULL looks promising this run Hope your right deltadog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 me either...for GA it was quite of bit worse...(verbatim) but overall, a very good sign as the euro actually got better position with the CAD, and H5 looks like a beast!! The 0z Euro never gets any 2 meter temp.'s below 32 for any of GA/SC for the entire storm!! That's totally bogus imo. With a great placed 1042 high in NY with fantastic and persistent CAD, temp.'s at 12Z 3/6 near 10 just outside NYC and -20 part of NY state, fresh snowcover there, typical ZR producing 850's near -4 C over ATL-AHN, the low tracking far enough SE (over Savannah), steady and copious precip., and a warm bias of 4-5+ degrees on the 2 meter maps in these situations, I cannot believe that it wouldn't at least get down to 30-32 at ATL-AHN if these sfc/850 maps verify. Furthermore, the clown actually has 0.4-0.5" of qpf falling at ATL-AHN with two meters at or below 32 on 3/6 while the 850's are still ~+3 to +4 C (meaning probably ZR)!! So, its own clown disagrees with the two meter maps! Note that the study of Euro two meters by Lookout and myself of a seemingly too warm Euro run a few days before the 2/12-13/14 storm verified to be 4-5 too warm at ATL, where it had 32-33 for the coldest vs. the actual coldest of 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Oh I agree Larry. Thermal profiles look wrong on the euro tonight. I do like how the high is a little stronger and in the IDEAL spot for cad. Euro drives up the 850's to 10c with that upper low. Not sure what's up with that. The ull didn't trend north. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Oh I agree Larry. Thermal profiles look wrong on the euro tonight. I do like how the high is a little stronger and in the IDEAL spot for cad. Euro drives up the 850's to 10c with that upper low. Not sure what's up with that. The ull didn't trend north. Lol As far as I'm concerned, this is the 3rd Euro run in a row showing a major winter storm 3/6-7 for at least the ATL-AHN area although only the 12Z 2/28 run agreed based on its two meter maps. Both the 0Z 2/28 and 0Z 3/1 runs showed temp.'s a little above 32 there, which I feel are bogus for reasons I've already given. Even the 0Z 3/1 Euro clown disagrees lol! Also, the 0Z UKMET implies a winter storm to me with fantastic CAD and a Miller going over C FL/good SW 500 mb flow. The 0Z GFS, adjusting for too warm at 2m by just 2-3 degrees, is enough to assume it shows a major ZR-IP. The 0Z CMC is too warm based on 850's safely above +6 C and not enough CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 06z GFS implies a major ice/sleet storm for Cad area’s of GA/SC on Thursday morning before warming to around freezing by lunchtime. Roughly 1/2 inch of liquid falls for these area’s before temps warm to around freezing at the surface. I’m not sure if I buy warming that much, but it is early March so who knows? The warming is also due to the damming high moving offshore Thursday afternoon. The ukmet/Euro do not send our high offshore in this manor, so one would think if the high doens’t migrate offshore like depicted on the GFS, then the freezing rain/sleet would last longer before going over to cold rain. My best guess at this point is that most of the front end precip will be frozen for CAD areas. The backside precip will most likely either be rain or snow, and my guess is rain right now outside of the mountains, unless some localized area’s get lucky under intense rates thursday night/fri morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 850s suggest the ULL is producing heavy wet snow in Alabama this run. Raging sleet storm for the first portion of the storm at least for the western Piedmont with snow in the mountains and maybe the western foothills. The surface low tracks a little inland, which kind of screws over the Piedmont of NC as far as snow goes... verbatim. It's close to the 12z solution, but small differences mean a lot. The mountains get crushed. Move the low offshore and more of us are in the game, though. We shall see. If it's as strong as the Op is showing then inland makes sense. The mean looks good. HP trying to stay in a good spot until 12z Friday. SLP just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any reports on the EPS mean and members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any reports on the EPS mean and members? from what I'm reading overnight this is trending more and more to a possible big dog storm. with all the snow to the north of us on the ground this will really help in no modification of the cold arctic high pressure. if this moves in late wednesday or early thursday morning it will start for all as snow it looks like and some will stay snow and some will go to zr. we're now within 5 days so we're getting in that good time frame. Edit. Sorry didn't mean to quote on yours packfan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 boy with possibilities of quite a few people that could see some heavy snow all the local weather doesn't mention the possibility is there for some heavy snow next week. since the chance is there you would think they would say this is something they have to watch closely. gsp says this in they're lingo for 3-6/7 for wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 boy with possibilities of quite a few people that could see some heavy snow all the local weather doesn't mention the possibility is there for some heavy snow next week. since the chance is there you would think they would say this is something they have to watch closely. gsp says this in they're lingo for 3-6/7 for wintry precip. The weekend mets won't mention much. Still too far in advance as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I really love the ULL solution. To me that is the most legit solution for snow around here. At 5h the ULL takes about a perfect track for I-85 to I-40. That would be one heavy wet snow. Remember when looking at maps you want to be on the northwest side of the core of the ULL. Too close to the core and it ends up being rain. Euro last night has it going roughly sough of CAE to CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 850s suggest the ULL is producing heavy wet snow in Alabama this run. Raging sleet storm for the first portion of the storm at least for the western Piedmont with snow in the mountains and maybe the western foothills. The surface low tracks a little inland, which kind of screws over the Piedmont of NC as far as snow goes... verbatim. It's close to the 12z solution, but small differences mean a lot. The mountains get crushed. Move the low offshore and more of us are in the game, though. We shall see. James just remember when it comes to ULL's the models do not do well with temps. The 00z Euro screams to me that this would be a huge snow storm just north west of CAE from to CLT to possibly HKY with GSO right on the edge of the really dynamic stuff. It looks like it has plenty of cold air to work with to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gsp is pretty bullish in their discussion about wintry weather the end of the week. We'll see. I'd rather not have to depend on an ull to get snow. Like to see at least surface temps well below freezing through the event. Great way to end winter though...tracking a potential big dog somewhere for the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gsp is pretty bullish in their discussion about wintry weather the end of the week. We'll see. I'd rather not have to depend on an ull to get snow. Like to see at least surface temps well below freezing through the event. Great way to end winter though...tracking a potential big dog somewhere for the se. That is extremely hard to get even in the first week of March. It almost never fails that temps just end up being marginal and we get a big snow storm with everything melting when it hits the ground cause we're sitting at 34. I think an ULL is our best bet if we want to see something we measure. We've really been screwed the last few times on ULLs because they ended up going to far north. With a nice HP though that should force it south which means we have a real chance of going to the bank to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 James just remember when it comes to ULL's the models do not do well with temps. The 00z Euro screams to me that this would be a huge snow storm just north west of CAE from to CLT to possibly HKY with GSO right on the edge of the really dynamic stuff. It looks like it has plenty of cold air to work with to me. would the mtns. be in on this heavy snow shield also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 CIP's analogs are really good for western half of NC, including "the analog" of all analogs which should remain nameless. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= For those wondering, they suck for RDU, it's the collection of heartbreakers for us, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That is extremely hard to get even in the first week of March. It almost never fails that temps just end up being marginal and we get a big snow storm with everything melting when it hits the ground cause we're sitting at 34. I think an ULL is our best bet if we want to see something we measure. We've really been screwed the last few times on ULLs because they ended up going to far north. With a nice HP though that should force it south which means we have a real chance of going to the bank to cash in. Yeah thats how I remember pretty much all the ull events for clt. Waiting for the rain to change over to snow...then watching it melt while it finally does fall. That may be what happens here and I'd take it. However the way its modeled it looks like we're right on the edge of a good cold storm because of good damming. But I agree. Were more likely to get the warmer pastry version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 would the mtns. be in on this heavy snow shield also? Mountains do well with the initial front end snow. The million dollar question will be where the ULL actually tracks and how far NW the shield is. We're still 5-6 days away so as with an ULL there will be cliff diving daily. A few years ago I remember models were pushing one around this time of year and it started out like the Euro but ended up going through southern KY giving Indiana the big snows. ULLs are whacky like that....but that one also didn't have any HP to keep it south. Once the NAM comes out let the games begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah thats how I remember pretty much all the ull events for clt. Waiting for the rain to change over to snow...then watching it melt while it finally does fall. That may be what happens here and I'd take it. However the way its modeled it looks like we're right on the edge of a good cold storm because of good damming. But I agree. Were more likely to get the warmer pastry version. I totally disagree looking at the Euro. This mainly just due to past experience, the thing is a good ULL is cold enough on it's own. Now you throw in a CAD feed and it's game over. Granted this is just what the models are showing now. Who knows what they will show two days from now. I would take the Euro last night and yesterday at 12z and run with it. Just based on nature if the Euro is right we would get crushed with snow because of all the cold air the ULL has to work with. We are in about perfect position. I think it was 2 years ago we had that epic bust where a ULL (with no real cold air to work with) came through and everyone was calling for heavy snow up to like 8 inches. The core of the storm went just right over CLT. You know who won? VA specifically Richmond. This has the core going to CHS. You know who would win? CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Burger or packbacker, do you have access to the eps mean or individual members? I wanted to see how they were looking this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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