donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 They may be right. Channel 7 has some decent weather people like Lee Goldberg though this young guy Smith did the weather. In general, Channel 7, 1010 WINS, and 880 CBS all use AccuWeather-based forecasts. Exceptions can occur e.g, when Craig Allen is on the air. AccuWeather is currently forecasting 2"-4". Also, IMO if one goes 2"-4" or 3"-6" for NYC, that's not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What is the outer extreme, if QPF, temperature, storm strength, ratios and ultimate course played out perfectly for KNYC and KJFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What is the outer extreme, if QPF, temperature, storm strength, ratios and ultimate course played out perfectly for KNYC and KJFK? Probably 9-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RAP getting .7-.8 into NYC and its still snowing hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Latest RUC...wayyy north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Probably 9-10" I'll take half then hope that the mid week and end of week events add ad give us snow pack equal to that of 3 years ago which was phenomenol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll take half then hope that the mid week and end of week events add ad give us snow pack equal to that of 3 years ago which was phenomenol. I'm not sold on midweek storm yet. Think there could be a lot of rain wiping away much of the snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The RAP hammers us with over 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The RAP hammers us with over 10" Here is the hour 18 sim And this much has already fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 When's the HRRR come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 When's the HRRR come out? Every hour as you know lol. You never have to wait long. Once one finishes, the next one starts very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 When's the HRRR come out? Looks great through hour 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Earthlight, hate to ask an out-of-region question, but for example that HRRR image you just posted shows some really high DBZ for Philly, do you think we could get thundersnow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Latest RUC...wayyy north. 1554591_759786010717216_259550793_n.jpg Old run...most recent run is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 In general, Channel 7, 1010 WINS, and 880 CBS all use AccuWeather-based forecasts. Exceptions can occur e.g, when Craig Allen is on the air. AccuWeather is currently forecasting 2"-4". Also, IMO if one goes 2"-4" or 3"-6" for NYC, that's not unreasonable.I can't see how 2 to 4 is a fair forecast when . 75 is forecasted to fall. If 75 percent of this is snow at 10 to 1 its 5 inches. I think 90 of this is snow , I respectfully disagree Today 55 is irrelevant when its 31 tomorrow and 850s are minus 2 tomorrow morning. I never look through the prism with snow goggles but I take a macro view and try and coalesce all the guidance 2 to 4 is irresponsible as to what's on tap . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Earthlight, hate to ask an out-of-region question, but for example that HRRR image you just posted shows some really high DBZ for Philly, do you think we could get thundersnow here? Yes. There is an area of enhanced lift just north and northwest of the frontal boundary and the models are now indicating the potential for some impressive banding (what else is new in our recent storms). The HRRR has a widespread lightning threat. As it stands now, we're really gonna rip for a period of time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Old run...most recent run is south. What are you looking at? http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/for_web/rap_jet/2014020222/t3/totp_t3sfc_f18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yes. There is an area of enhanced lift just north and northwest of the frontal boundary and the models are now indicating the potential for some impressive banding (what else is new in our recent storms). The HRRR has a widespread lightning threat. As it stands now, we're really gonna rip for a period of time tomorrow. ltg3_sfc_f15.png I was asking before if this had some convection to it. Good map thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This forum is more exciting than the game... These short range models. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can any flakes sneak in before 3AM for NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What are you looking at? http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/for_web/rap_jet/2014020222/t3/totp_t3sfc_f18.png Someone had posted on the Philly thread an image of the RAP that doesn't seem to go along with the images that I have....looks more like an older RGEM run with snow focused further south....check it out....strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I was asking before if this had some convection to it. Good map thank you Every high resolution model has an area of enhanced lift running northwest of the boundary and psuedo-CF that I was discussing earlier. The high res NAM fire wx nest has the best banding signature of the winter along this area of enhanced lift. It remains to be seen if this is going to verify...but if it does there are going to be some high totals wherever it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can any flakes sneak in before 3AM for NYC/LI? It'll be 38-40 so won't mean much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 My concerns for lack of snow of significance in Southeast NJ continue. Most of the high resolution models continue to show the 925mb low closing off just as it meanders off the coast of NJ. That is way too late for those areas as part of the 925mb low passes overhead as it is. So the marginal surface temperatures initially are only going to compound the problem. The high resolution models such as the RGEM, HRRR and NAM are very adamant in showing liquid precipitation for a time Southeast of KDIX and that will make this a borderline non-event for those areas. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_18z_refc_f21.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I can't see how 2 to 4 is a fair forecast when . 75 is forecasted to fall. If 75 percent of this is snow at 10 to 1 its 5 inches. I think 90 of this is snow , I respectfully disagree Today 55 is irrelevant when its 31 tomorrow and 850s are minus 2 tomorrow morning. I never look through the prism with snow goggles but I take a macro view and try and coalesce all the guidance 2 to 4 is irresponsible as to what's on tap . FWIW, I favor higher amounts than 2"-4" (probably 3"-6" in the Bronx and Manhattan and 4"-8" elsewhere in the City). I'm just stating that I don't think the forecast is unreasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Mt. Holly just added Middlesex County NJ to the Winter Storm Warning list http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My concerns for lack of snow of significance in Southeast NJ continue. Most of the high resolution models continue to show the 925mb low closing off just as it meanders off the coast of NJ. That is way too late for those areas as part of the 925mb low passes overhead as it is. So the marginal surface temperatures initially are only going to compound the problem. The high resolution models such as the RGEM, HRRR and NAM are very adamant in showing liquid precipitation for a time Southeast of KDIX and that will make this a borderline non-event for those areas. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_18z_refc_f21.gif What are you thinking for the Central NJ/ Staten Island Area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RUC showing widespread 10-12" for our area https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/430144565450776578/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Mt. Holly just added Middlesex County NJ to the Winter Storm Warning list http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Mercer and western Monmouth too apparently though the maps not updating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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