PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 FWIW, I favor higher amounts than 2"-4" (probably 3"-6" in the Bronx and Manhattan and 4"-8" elsewhere in the City). I'm just stating that I don't think the forecast is unreasonable Fair. And my response was to them and not you. I just think once ths boundary cools its nuts for a bit And sure marginal BL snow may not accumulate on the FDR but once outside the city I can't see less than 6 IMO And 8 to 10 in the max areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Since i live in Toms River and dont really have a regional home...should us in ocean county expect alot, or border line non event...it seems like were right on the line unless i cant read maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 21z SREF ticked northwest and wetter a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How far northwest? The 15z SREF mean was fairly conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 How far northwest? The 15z SREF mean was fairly conservative. It's a 25 mile or so bump just glancing at the Northeast hires maps. .75" runs from SE PA to Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Where do you think the R/S line will be now? Toms River/Seaside Heights area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This storm has been trending NW.. amazing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 wow new HRRR is nice...puts the band over nyc south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Please forgive the pesonal request here. I have a 10:30AM flight out of LGA. Based on the anticipated start time, is this right in the middle of the moderate/heavy snow? Would it be worth my trying to catch the prior flight at 9AM, or would this still be after several hours of moderate snow? Thanks for any help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Please forgive the pesonal request here. I have a 10:30AM flight out of LGA. Based on the anticipated start time, is this right in the middle of the moderate/heavy snow? Would it be worth my trying to catch the prior flight at 9AM, or would this still be after several hours of moderate snow? Thanks for any help. i'm at 11:12...see you there...I'm hoping LGA is warm enough in the am that not much accumulates prior to 10 or 11am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I can't see how 2 to 4 is a fair forecast when . 75 is forecasted to fall. If 75 percent of this is snow at 10 to 1 its 5 inches. I think 90 of this is snow , I respectfully disagree Today 55 is irrelevant when its 31 tomorrow and 850s are minus 2 tomorrow morning. I never look through the prism with snow goggles but I take a macro view and try and coalesce all the guidance 2 to 4 is irresponsible as to what's on tap . I think a fair amount of the initial snow isn't going to stick. It might be reasonable to expect 5-6" to fall, but the wet and relatively warm ground is going to melt some of it on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM looks like it is coming north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0.50"+ contour is north of KMMU on the latest SREF's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If the NAM did shift north it's not by a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM looks like it is coming north a bit looking realy good so far, its aimed right at nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The RAP is starting it's shift south a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Heavy snow by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nam is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 These trends from the RAP and HRRR are quite interesting with regards to portraying a surprisingly dynamic snowfall for a fast moving SFWE Been some interesting chatter at the weather center here whether or not to really buy into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 this run will be wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The RAP is starting it's shift south Latest RAP looks great for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM smokes us...enjoy the game...tomorrow is going to rock and roll. I have no further concerns or meteorological analysis to add currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's amazing, two days ago the NAM and GFS had zero. Score a win up for the GGEM and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So per guidance Can NYC see 8+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow hr 18 .75+ we are crushed. Wow wow. Tomorrow is a condo crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's amazing, two days ago the NAM and GFS had zero. Score a win up for the GGEM and ECMWF. ECMWF is back on the throne baby! atleast its doing better than the broncos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 QPF bomb up there and here in Philly, I'm excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM hits the Philly metro area the hardest, however most of southeast NJ is rain. In fact most of southern NJ is rain. The R/S line runs from Sandy Hook to the Delaware Memorial Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NYC at 1.00 hr 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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