earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM is well north and west and has increased snowfall totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mercer/Hunterdon/Monmouth are all advisories right now, not warnings. My bad - I meant watches, when they were under watches, earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS looks a tick north and west with the heaviest precipitation through 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Start time on the 18z GFS is 3AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Here comes the giffus, even though it's now casting time I think we are set for 3-4" regardless....maybe a little higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS isn't as good as the NAM but it's a solid hit for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 A very slight tick NW on the GFS but essentially mirrors its 12z run. Drier than all other guidance at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With all due respect to everyone on this board the guidance support 10 to 1. Minus 2 at 850 and 0 at the surface going to minus 3 and 30 us 10 to 1. There's tremendous upward motion coming thru this yrs favorite corridor from philly to nyc and east. From philly to Monmouth County this is 8 inches and nyc 6. And I am being kind. This not 2 to 4 or 3 to 5. .75 and plus 1 qpf means business tomorrow and be cautious at ur own risk this has blown up to a formidable storm. And 1 day of 50 after 2 weeks of 15 below and snow cover doesn't translate to baf ratios good luck everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM is well north and west and has increased snowfall totals.. SN_000-048_0000.gif very close to 6z rgem totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A very slight tick NW on the GFS but essentially mirrors its 12z run. Drier than all other guidance at this point. A tick down here could be a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Interesting to note the convection feeding right into the main mass of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs is still half inch + around nyc..temps right at 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 FWIW ECMWF ensemble mean was very juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 FWIW ECMWF ensemble mean was very juiced. About 0.75" runs through NYC on the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 The RGEM plays pretty well into my thoughts about what may transpire in Southeast NJ and where the banding will set up. Although I think it is a bit too aggressive with the warm layer cutoff. Here are the precipitation totals and snowfall forecast at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is not a mesoscale model, HI-RES NAM, HRRR, RAP, SREFs are the best models for this type of event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18Z RGEM total rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Start time on the 18z GFS is 3AM 3AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Since its been in range. The rgem has been pretty consistent with its totals . Imo its one of the better models with rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rgem seems like a nice compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Since we're in between runs... The RAP looks beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Getting excited here in SW Long Island with knowing 4 inches is a lock and snow for at least 8 hours, now bring Wednesday frozen as well as next weekends frozen and im happy for the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18Z GFS has also increased precip totals - 1 inch line qpf is sitting just south of NYC through central NJ - considering all guidance and increased totals the last models cycle runs - 5 - 8 inches seems reasonable through central NJ east through the southern half of the 5 Borough's http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020218/gfs_apcpn_us_9.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Papa Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 user13, on 30 Jan 2014 - 08:42 AM, said: We have to wait for the sunday storm to get out of the way so the models can get a better handle on the split flow. Also by looking at the gfs, that might have a sneaky secondary with that storm While I originally thought that you were crazy, you get props for this one. None of the models showed the storm at that time. Nice call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18Z GFS has also increased precip totals - 1 inch line qpf is sitting just south of NYC through central NJ - considering all guidance and increased totals the last models cycle runs - 5 - 8 inches seems reasonable through central NJ east through the southern half of the 5 Borough's http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020218/gfs_apcpn_us_9.png I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mt. Holly gave their rationale for not going with warnings further north - boundary layer (surface) temps eating up accumulation until enough cold air filters in. Possible, but if we can get some heavy snow early on, that will quickly bring the boundary layer temps down to freezing and preclude much melting - if the first several hours are light snow, we could lose an inch or so to melting with surface temps 33-35F. They do acknowledge that the advisory areas could be converted to warnings if the boundary layer issues are being overestimated. We'll see. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IS THELOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE FRONT THATWILL INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A TRUE ARCTIC FRONTAS TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT HAVE NOT PLUMMETED AS FAST AS THEY WOULDOTHERWISE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 12ZTOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THEY GO BELOW FREEZING, AND 925 WILL FOLLOWSOON THEREAFTER. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULDREMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THE REALLY STRONG FORCING GETS GOING.THE LARGER THE AMOUNT OF QPF THE HEAVIER THE PRECIP AND THE COOLINGOF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED...WET-BULBING. WITH THE WARMER SURFACETEMPERATURES AS THE START OF THE EVENT TOMORROW MORNING WE SHOULDSTRUGGLE TO SEE STICKING OCCURRING, ULTIMATELY KEEPING ACCUMULATIONSLOWER THAN THE QPF WOULD INDICATE...INITIALLY.THE NAM HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ITS BETTER FGEN FORCING FURTHER TOTHE SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NEARBY,MOSTLY OVER PHL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST SNOW GROWTH HAPPENSLATE MORNING WHEN HELP FROM THE JET DYNAMICS PROPELS THE VVSSTRONGER AND THE BEST OMEGA MOVES IN PLACE. THIS IS WHEN THE BETTERACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AND THERE COULD BE SOME RATESAROUND AN 1 OR 2 AN HOUR. THAT BEING SAID, THIS SYSTEM IS NOTLOLLY-GAGGING DOWN TO FIRST, AS IT IT RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY SO ANYBANDING THAT TAKE PLACE WILL BE TRANSIENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYEON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW LINE PROGRESSES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNINGAND WE COULD COME CLOSE TO WARNING AMOUNTS OUTSIDE THE CURRENTWARNING AREAS.http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The SREF illustrates what earthlight said earlier. Ratios are going to be very marginal during the height of the storm, if not below 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My final call. Upped amounts slightly mostly heavily weighing RGEM, Euro, NAM and early high Rez guidance. Giving GFS some weight for its warmth and NAM because 925 warm noses never lose. Sorry Southeast coast. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The SREF illustrates what earthlight said earlier. Ratios are going to be very marginal during the height of the storm, if not below 10:1 SREF_snowfall_ratio__f024.gif This is why I am skeptical of going more than 3 inches for Northern NJ. I upped my totals due to latest model trends, and put Northern NJ in the 2-4 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The SREF illustrates what earthlight said earlier. Ratios are going to be very marginal during the height of the storm, if not below 10:1 SREF_snowfall_ratio__f024.gif Wow I'm just barely in the 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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