user13 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I posted this before the euro showed the storm gfs and nam hinted at it first, they just lost it. This needs to be watched. A little more energy in the short wave and this will dig. The other storm is right on its heels so it will be interesting to see how it will play out. If not there will be a lot of gulf moisture waiting around to be tapped. Euro was the 1st to pick it up Few days back THE 0000 UTC OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 0000 UTC GFS IN PUSHING THIS WEEKEND`S COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS REGARDING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lot to ask brother , get thru wed 1st wishful thinking I know better than that trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I feel the same. It seems whenever we're warmer than forecast temps don't crash as expected This isn't an arctic front. Give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I really got a good laugh out of that. Thanks for the kind words, I really do appreciate it. I learned a lot of what I know in this forum years ago...all the way back to WWBB and Eastern days. And so being able to have meteorology as a career and give back to the board by helping other people learn and have fun doing it..is something that I enjoy doing. The quality of posts in this forum has improved so much over the last 3-4 years that it almost brings a tear to my eye. Anyway, enjoy the snow! I think so as well....and Thanks Earth I have learned a lot from your posts here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I can guarantee you that will happen last great run by a Bronco was in 1994 (OJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is the 1st time this year that the NAM which spits out 12 area wide is wetter than the 4k high res which maxes out at 8 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Papa Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My family still thinks that NYC is only going to get 2" with this storm. I can't wait to see the looks on their faces tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winds have switch now to the nnw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is the 1st time this year that the NAM which spits out 12 area wide is wetter than the 4k high res which maxes out at 8 . not true its been routinely wetter for whatever reason for most storms this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Actually I meant I was concerned about how warm the 0z NAM was. It's close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Actually I meant I was concerned about how warm the 0z NAM was. It's close here. I believe its colder than the gfs by a degree or two but I do think most of our snow falls with temps above freezing. We've seen this before where temps don't crash as much as they're supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I mean, in all likelihood the NAM is too aggressive and too wet. The newer RAP and HRRR models seem more reasonable and I suspect the RGEM will hold serve with something more on the order of 0.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 not true its been routinely wetter for whatever reason for most storms this yr Nah. 4k nam off WB for me has been wetter. I know cause I used to post em ad nauseam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 People are going to be caught off guard. It went from 2-4" deal to 3-5" to a possible 8-12" deal. Not to mention its going to be a heavy wet snow TV mets were forecasting only 2-4". Some here were thinking that was too low hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 They already closed school here in Dunellen(next to Piscataway) nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My thoughts also.. it needs to start dropping off fast ! This is why the NWS is holding back on higher amts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Interesting quote from a V good Met Steve Demartino of NY/NJ Weather who is leaning to discounting this run of the Nam 'The issue here is physics. The NAM has a VERY large area of convective heavy snow. dBz values exceed over 35 for all of NJ and NYC metro.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 They already closed school here in Dunellen(next to Piscataway) nj. ya gotta be kidding. Course, I remember sitting around in March 2001 for two days waiting for something to happen. It never did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Interesting quote from a V good Met who is leaning to discounting this run of the Nam 'The issue here is physics. The NAM has a VERY large area of convective heavy snow. dBz values exceed over 35 for all of NJ and NYC metro.' Then he needs to reject the EURO the SREF and the RGEM . And go with the old stick his finger in the air And discount the majority of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If the snow comes down as fast as the NAM predicts the temp will drop down to 30-32 with in a hour or two if not faster. Looks like a lot of dynamic cooling will take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is why the NWS is holding back on higher amts. It was in the 50s just a few hours ago. Temps are where they should be. Should be mid 30s when precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Then he needs to reject the EURO the SREF and the RGEM . And go with the old stick his finger in the air And discount the majority of the guidance. I don't know about that. The SREF are not nearly as wet as the NAM, neither is the RGEM. Discounting the 1.00" QPF or more amounts from the NAM isn't that farfetched. Until I see the RGEM come on board with those totals I will still lean towards 0.75" amounts south of NYC. The 1.00" totals are a little ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I heard keansburg schools are closed tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Already 36 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I mean, in all likelihood the NAM is too aggressive and too wet. The newer RAP and HRRR models seem more reasonable and I suspect the RGEM will hold serve with something more on the order of 0.75". Yea i agree, although if you can get under a nice band i think 1.00+" might be doable. But not area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like the area around Trenton could be jackpot this time west into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't know about that. The SREF are not nearly as wet as the NAM, neither is the RGEM. Discounting the 1.00" QPF or more amounts from the NAM isn't that farfetched. Until I see the RGEM come on board with those totals I will still lean towards 0.75" amounts south of NYC. The 1.00" totals are a little ridiculous.. Totally agree , Most guidance are .75 at KNYC and 1 Philly through Monmouth. The serf are prob the most juiced and has been consistent. I guess if his call discount 1 to .75 that's plausible Just not to .50. Think the guidance is north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't know about that. The SREF are not nearly as wet as the NAM, neither is the RGEM. Discounting the 1.00" QPF or more amounts from the NAM isn't that farfetched. Until I see the RGEM come on board with those totals I will still lean towards 0.75" amounts south of NYC. The 1.00" totals are a little ridiculous. I always look at the NAM with a sly eye when it prints out some of the highest QPF in all the guidance including the short range hi-res. im going to go with 4-8" for NYC-east with locally higher amounts the 8-12" amounts widespread im not totally sold on yet john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST AND IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM...NOT ENOUGH! WE'LL AWAIT 00Z/3 GFS AND WWD GUIDANCE BEFORE ANY MORE CHANGES. WE ADDED A TIER OF ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WARNING AREA BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE OF ADVY. MY CONCERN IS PHILLY NORTH TO ALLENTOWN AND NEW BRUNSWICK. ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE VOLUME OF 00Z/3 NAM QPF. SNOW GROWTH LOOKS VERY GOOD (20MB AT -14C) ON THE NAM NOW IN MOST OF OUR AREA...E PA AND NW NJ CENTERED JUST NW OF I95 AT 12Z MOVES JUST SE OF I95 AT 15Z AND OUT TO SEA AT 18Z. THIS HAS ME THINKING A 2-3 HR OF 1/4 S+ IN MANY AREAS DURING THE MORNING. THE GFS NEEDS TO CONFIRM BUT I AM PREPARED TO SEE THAT DEVELOP. FOR THOSE QUESTIONING THE WARM THICKNESS AND FCSTG HEAVY SNOW...THAT BOTHERS ME AS WELL BUT MY INTERPRETATION OF PCPN MICROPHYSICS IS IF THE COLUMN IS AT OR BELOW ZERO AND SEEDED WITH CRYSTALS FROM ABV... ANY ZL-/IP- ZR- CHANGES TO SNOW. THE THICKNESS IS HIGH BECAUSE THE ONCOMING SHORT WAVE IS WEAK (70M HFC) AND HEIGHTS (850-700 THICKNESS WARM) ARE HIGH LEAVING THE ENTIRE COLUMN AT MARGINAL JUST SUBZERO IN THE I95 AREA NWD. CIRRUS UPSTREAM IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SEEN ON 02Z SATELLITE IMAGERY IS YOUR SEEDER. THE DRIVERS FOR THE LIFT APPEAR TO ME TO BE THE 180 KT 250MB JET STREAK THRU MAINE AT 12Z MONDAY AND THE SW 850 WIND OF 50-55KT IN W NC AT 12Z MONDAY PUSHING 9C 850 DEWPOINT OUR WAY...WITH TREMENDOUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AT 12Z MONDAY. WATCH FOR POSSIBLE POWER PROBLEMS IN THE 6 INCH WET SNOW ZONE DOWN HERE SOMEWHERE IN S CENTRAL NJ WHERE POWER OUTAGES MAY DEVELOP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Newest RAP is more in line with other guidance and is 50-75 miles further south or so....still 0.7" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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