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Wednesday storm possiblities

Mitchel Volk

By Mitchel Volk,
in New York City Metro

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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
Posted

Considering how narrowly the Navgem misses its not that bad, its actually fairly close to the GFS/UKMET...I've been worried all day about how similar its been to the other models, its progressive bias is better than it used to be but still significantly present most of the time, I still think this event is a near miss but I would not be surprised if this ends up bringing some snow from I-95 east.

Navgem is bad

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_11.png

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Its doing what its done all winter, slowly moving towards most other guidance inside 72 hours but it will take another 36 hours til it gets there, it actually came more west down in the South than I ever thought it would.

I mean after the midweek system. Day 6 it presses the cold so hard it sends the 2 nd max to Bermuda

A day later the ridge is so strong it sends a sat storm to the lakes with mid 40 s ?

It's lost

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I mean after the midweek system. Day 6 it presses the cold so hard it sends the 2 nd max to Bermuda

A day later the ridge is so strong it sends a sat storm to the lakes with mid 40 s ?

It's lost

talking about lost - this is going to be a long week trying to forecast the weather for the Super Bowl GFS keeps coming up with different scenerios 6Z now shows snow to a mix then back to snow here Sunday

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

talking about lost - this is going to be a long week trying to forecast the weather for the Super Bowl GFS keeps coming up with different scenerios 6Z now shows snow to a mix then back to snow here Sunday

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

  I  will take it . That's better than the 50 and Rain as per the Euro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

talking about rain believe it or not some may fall today - and this next cold shot will not be as severe here as once thought by some 

The spike today  is prob short lived  , We def don't get below 0 at KNYC but  this week is as cold as last week Tues - Thrs time frame  . We prob break 2 nd - 4 th  as the trough pulls back but the 5 - 15 could be cold like this one again .

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Sock Puppet

Sock Puppet

Posted
Posted

Craig Allen's thoughts posted on his Facebook page.

"Good morning. Back to work after an enjoyable weekend off.

You know you can always find a potential snowstorm on the medium range models in the winter months. With approx 10 days to play with, there will almost always be something to grab the interest of snowlovers. Usually I find myself to be the one shooting down constant talk of those wishcasting a storm.

So, I find myself in a strange position this morning. Mosts forecasts are dry and bitter cold for the midweek (as is mine for the time being). However, I may actually increase the hopes of snowlovers because of a subtle but constantly increasing trend on a few weather maps. I'm not even referring to SB Sunday. I'm talking about Wed! As in 48 hours from now, just like we only had 36-48 hours notice of last Tuesday's snowstorm.

Why? Go back to the 1/13 post with all the question marks and volatility in this pattern we're in. The various schemes depicted by guidance have ranged from right angles to 180° difference from each other and sometimes amongst themselves from run to run. The storm is there...wait, no it's not....uh-oh there it is again. And timing? All I can say is a clock strikes 12 twice a day. That's why I said don't take anything off the table until the actual threat has passed.

So now I'm seeing the Wed threat materializing again. Not even from the euro (which has fallen from it's 'king' status this season). These concerns are coming from a constant westward trend on the gfs; a definite hit from the mean gfs ensemble, SREF plumes now show at least a brush-by, to a possible solid plowable snow from some of it's members. And now WPC places the NJ shore and LI in the "Psbl Hvy Snow"' area for Wed.

This is how it started for last Tuesday's system. The 500 trof steepened and the next thing you know, the Low is riding up the coast like originally thought 5+ days out, not offshore like it looked it would do only 3 days out. Next thing you know, we've got a foot on the ground.

In answer to an earlier question, no...these systems will not sneak up on us overnight and you awake to the old joke of 'a foot of partly cloudy'. If this one on Wed is to occur, all the other guidance will start to trend as well and eventually fall into place BUT, it may be just 24 hour notice. Best bet right now is for people south & east of the City.

Speaking of 'south', this is the same system that might produce unprecedented wintry weather across the Gulf coast into GA, SC and NC into VA. Would you believe a Winter Storm Watch is in affect from near Houston to Baton Rouge, Birmingham to Atlanta, Myrtle Beach to Virginia Beach and all points inland.

Would we be next? Le's see what the 12z runs show."

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

Good read sock puppet. We' re going to need some BIG trends at 12z on to be enthusiastic about this threat again. I LOVED for this storm to come to fruition but last nights models paused the trends save for a few minor differences. I dont like giving up on a threat especially in a high volitility pattern that we are in but chances are slim and slim is about to leave town if they're arent any big moves N&W today on ALL models

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Craig Allen's thoughts posted on his Facebook page.

"Good morning. Back to work after an enjoyable weekend off.

You know you can always find a potential snowstorm on the medium range models in the winter months. With approx 10 days to play with, there will almost always be something to grab the interest of snowlovers. Usually I find myself to be the one shooting down constant talk of those wishcasting a storm.

So, I find myself in a strange position this morning. Mosts forecasts are dry and bitter cold for the midweek (as is mine for the time being). However, I may actually increase the hopes of snowlovers because of a subtle but constantly increasing trend on a few weather maps. I'm not even referring to SB Sunday. I'm talking about Wed! As in 48 hours from now, just like we only had 36-48 hours notice of last Tuesday's snowstorm.

Why? Go back to the 1/13 post with all the question marks and volatility in this pattern we're in. The various schemes depicted by guidance have ranged from right angles to 180° difference from each other and sometimes amongst themselves from run to run. The storm is there...wait, no it's not....uh-oh there it is again. And timing? All I can say is a clock strikes 12 twice a day. That's why I said don't take anything off the table until the actual threat has passed.

So now I'm seeing the Wed threat materializing again. Not even from the euro (which has fallen from it's 'king' status this season). These concerns are coming from a constant westward trend on the gfs; a definite hit from the mean gfs ensemble, SREF plumes now show at least a brush-by, to a possible solid plowable snow from some of it's members. And now WPC places the NJ shore and LI in the "Psbl Hvy Snow"' area for Wed.

This is how it started for last Tuesday's system. The 500 trof steepened and the next thing you know, the Low is riding up the coast like originally thought 5+ days out, not offshore like it looked it would do only 3 days out. Next thing you know, we've got a foot on the ground.

In answer to an earlier question, no...these systems will not sneak up on us overnight and you awake to the old joke of 'a foot of partly cloudy'. If this one on Wed is to occur, all the other guidance will start to trend as well and eventually fall into place BUT, it may be just 24 hour notice. Best bet right now is for people south & east of the City.

Speaking of 'south', this is the same system that might produce unprecedented wintry weather across the Gulf coast into GA, SC and NC into VA. Would you believe a Winter Storm Watch is in affect from near Houston to Baton Rouge, Birmingham to Atlanta, Myrtle Beach to Virginia Beach and all points inland.

Would we be next? Le's see what the 12z runs show."

Funny in his 828 update on 880 , He just said Wed " partly cloudy , but I may need to alter this based on what I`m seeing " .

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

I went from showing lows in the single digits to the forecast calling for teens now. Also, 37 was supposed to be the high today, it's 38 here now. I think the cold had backed off just a bit. Nothing drastic, but definitely noticeable. Anyone care to share their thoughts on this?

Today has no impact on the upcoming cold. It is odd that the city and points south and east got so warm so quickly while just west of the hudson temps have remained in the 20s but I think by this afternoon everyone is in the upper 30s. Its not like NYC is going to be hitting the mid 40s or anything. As far as the upcoming cold it won't be nearly as bad or feel nearly as bad as last week, its really only a day and half as we start to moderate by Wednesday afternoon

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

We see this a lot, the models will over correct NW for a short time before settleing back down to reality. The 06z NAM is completely dry, we'll see what 12z shows but I'm not as bullish as I was last night. A few of the 00z GEFS individual members were scraping hits for the coast, many were completely dry.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

We see this a lot, the models will over correct NW for a short time before settleing back down to reality. The 06z NAM is completely dry, we'll see what 12z shows but I'm not as bullish as I was last night. A few of the 00z GEFS individual members were scraping hits for the coast, many were completely dry.

Honestly if not for last week's storm behaving as it did we would have written this storm off days ago.

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96blizz

96blizz

Posted
Posted

Hey all,

 

My apologies for shaking things up last night on this thread.  I take the blame.  My pop always told me to raise your hand, admit a mistake and apologize when times call for it.  I hope it's not held against me and I can participate actively when called for and continue to learn. 

 

That said, I'm hoping for a 'miracle' like last week to pull this one off and the NAM does look a bit better again this AM.  South Jerz and LI should certainly have their eyes wide open!

 

Best,

 

BTS.

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