PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Interesting, seems bullish to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 12z NAM is further NW with the precip shield than 06z, looks more like the GFS. Still nowhere near enough to bring the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Compare the 6z 48 to the 12z 42 , You can see the jump N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Too much subsidence a long the coastline from the PV being in a poor spot for us. We needed the PV to elongate more from north to south and instead we got from northeast to southwest which isn't nearly as good. The energy attempts to round the corner but has no choice but to head out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The "kicker" is farther north too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Nam actually made a significant improvement from its 06z run. It's really close to giving us something, maybe the gfs will be even closer. I think a storm is starting to go off the table, but we could still get a scraper or a brush from this. Below are the total precipitation from the 06z Nam run and 12z Nam run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Too much subsidence a long the coastline from the PV being in a poor spot for us. We needed the PV to elongate more from north to south and instead we got from northeast to southwest which isn't nearly as good. The energy attempts to round the corner but has no choice but to head out to sea. If this comes back, it will be for coastal sections of NJ, NY and especially LI. The NAM brings the .10" line into Montauk on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think Monmouth county on south are still in the game - lets see what GFS Ensembles look like which are way more relaible. Even 1 to 2 inches would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 4k NAM is actually even more NW of the normal NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Too much subsidence a long the coastline from the PV being in a poor spot for us. We needed the PV to elongate more from north to south and instead we got from northeast to southwest which isn't nearly as good. The energy attempts to round the corner but has no choice but to head out to sea. The trough is sheared out, energy sheared out and positively tilted. Unless that drastically changes, no one around our area has a shot at this. What the NAM showed is about the best I could see, maybe it briefly clips the Twin Forks and Cape Cod, as well as southeast NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Funny in his 828 update on 880 , He just said Wed " partly cloudy , but I may need to alter this based on what I`m seeing " . Craig is one of NYC's best. His Wednesday discussion that you talk about above is, at least in my opinion, probably the best way to describe things at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 one good sign is the -AO is at its lowest point of the season...to bad the nao is positive but it might come down a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RGEM shifted some 75-100 miles NW with it's precip shield from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Craig is not only one of the best mets out there but he's a great guy...about 20 years ago when I was a member of the Long Island Weather Observers I made an almanac for NYC and sent him and some other members of the LIWO a copy of it...He called me at home and talked to my wife to thank me for sending him a copy of the almanac which I thought was very nice on his part......It was nothing special and in those days I did it all with a type writer and copy machine...there was no spell check back then so I'll leave it at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Odds for a near-miss or brush by seem to be increasing, models are still shifting to the NW. Hopefully the gfs follows and getting an inch or two from this would be a huge win. Those in AC or Cape May are extremely close to something of more significance so hopefully it trends better so they benefit as they often get screwed in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Craig is one of NYC's best. His Wednesday discussion that you talk about above is, at least in my opinion, probably the best way to describe things at this point in time. He`s great , his typical response would be WED P/C with a storm going off to our S and E . So i think its got his attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If all else fails you can always count on the CRAS to show a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If all else fails you can always count on the CRAS to show a blizzard Is that the same system or the trailer? Look at hr84 on the NAM. Potent little system over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is that the same system or the trailer? Look at hr84 on the NAM. Potent little system over the ocean. That's the first system, then the second system hits us too, because it's the CRAS. Keep in mind this was the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's the first system, then the second system hits us too, because it's the CRAS. Keep in mind this was the 00z run. Replace the S with a P, and that's about what that model's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No improvement from the 12z GFS in the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Replace the S with a P, and that's about what that model's worth. Thanks for your scientific input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What a waste of a very potent southern stream vort. The 12z GFS is probably worse this run than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The good news ( i guess ) is it didnt tick SE , held steady . Most of the 12z Suite this AM came N , So another tick is stil on the table for coastal interest at least . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What a waste of a very potent southern stream vort. The 12z GFS is probably worse this run than 06z. Like you said in Feb. discussion thread atleast we have hope for the first week of february as the GFS is in love with it.....for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Like you said in Feb. discussion thread atleast we have hope for the first week of february as the GFS is in love with it.....for now 1st week of Feb , may be above normal temp wise Feb 5 - 15 is colder , that may be your`e better bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The good news ( i guess ) is it didnt tick SE , held steady . Most of the 12z Suite this AM came N , So another tick is stil on the table for coastal interest at least . I'm not totally convinced that this threat is completely dead yet but they are prepping the AED. Luckily the pattern moving forward shows a lot of promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Like you said in Feb. discussion thread atleast we have hope for the first week of february as the GFS is in love with it.....for now I have to say, no offense, but that wink is super annoying. It's in every post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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