Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 West... Looking pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Disagree, precip shield is somewhat closer, but nothing in my view fundamentally changed to make this any kind of a real threat north of m/d Sonewhat? It's really close with a couple more runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So the precipitation is expanding; it's still closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Precip field is more west than 18z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow! The 00Z NAM is so much closer that it's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sonewhat? It's really close with a couple more runs to go. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014012800/namconus_apcpn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Agonizingly close but just not enough time this time! What a tough pill to swallow but more on the horizon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SST's...in case anyone was wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's really trying but I think time's run out. The Nam is almost as good as it's gonna get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SST's...in case anyone was wondering. That probably explains why the storm track is the way it is. One thing for sure, NE NC to SE VA is gonna get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's really trying but I think time's run out. The Nam is almost as good as it's gonna get. Heard that all day and it keeps on coming closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sharpen that trough at 500 a little more then then NYC and Li and most of NJ would get a decent snow fall. Again let's see what the other models do. At this time I think it is 50/50 chance for NYC to get an inch plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sharpen that trough at 500 a little more then then NYC and Li and most of NJ would get a decent snow fall. Again let's see what the other models do. At this time I think it is 50/50 chance for NYC to get an inch plus. one question - yes an inch worth could fall out of the sky above the city BUT how long does it take to moisten up the levels with the dry low dewpoint air in place to get it to reach the ground ? I think on some of the radars there will be precip BUT it won't be reaching the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sonewhat? It's really close with a couple more runs to go. im not concerned with the precip field that will change from run to run...location of the low still sucks, trough not sharp enough...what has changed enough to make people think this is coming up the coast in any real way....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 one question - yes an inch worth could fall out of the sky above the city BUT how long does it take to moisten up the levels with the dry low dewpoint air in place to get it to reach the ground ? I think on some of the radars there will be precip BUT it won't be reaching the ground Agree-big time virga on the northwest fridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Trough is actually getting sharper with each run if you look at the 500mb charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 we have a hat trick of meteorologists still expressing serious interest in this threat... Volk, Allen, Gregory. "00z NAM computer model brings moisture from offshore storm even closer. I will stress again that this needs to b watched" -nick gregory via twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Look at the 4k NAM. Gets snow to the DE water gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 heights still suck, in terms of storm coming up the coast. I guess these things could still change, but to me everything still points to a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Its crazy to say but all we need is a 75 mile shift NW on the NAM to see 4+" - I still think this will end up just off shore but at least we can stay interested for another run (remember models were to far NW with the other storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 we have a hat trick of meteorologists still expressing serious interest in this threat... Volk, Allen, Gregory. "00z NAM computer model brings moisture from offshore storm even closer. I will stress again that this needs to b watched" -nick gregory via twitter https://twitter.com/NickGregoryFox5 then there is Bernie Rayno saying no way https://twitter.com/AccuRayno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 heights still suck, in terms of storm coming up the coast. I guess these things could still change, but to me everything still points to a miss. Well you might be shoveling that miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Trough is actually getting sharper with each run if you look at the 500mb charts. i agree the trough is stronger on the NAM....i just think most of the difference here is just an extended precip shield on the northern fringe, and not enough in the way of fundamental differences, especially this close to the storm. If we were 5 days out, maybe I'd feel differently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Compare to the 1/26 0z NAM - precip barely makes it out of North Carolina. Tonight's has .2 up through NJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 even taking the expanded precip into consideration on the NAM (which is the best case scenario depicted in days), there is no serious qpf above the mason/dixon line. Compare to the 1/26 0z NAM - precip barely makes it out of North Carolina. Tonight's has .2 up through NJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 even taking the expanded precip into consideration on the NAM (which is the best case scenario depicted in days), there is no serious qpf above the mason/dixon line. This isn't going to be 6"+ for anyone here, no one is expecting that. Most people are tracking this storm for the possibility of 1-3" from NYC S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This isn't going to be 6"+ for anyone here, no one is expecting that. Most people are tracking this storm for the possibility of 1-3" from NYC S&E. hard for me to see more than an inch or so....i guess when people talk about being in business or needing to be watched, i was thinking they meant more than snow showers. Sure NYC, PHL, NJ could see a minor accumulation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Are all players on the field now, so models can get a better sample of everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 https://twitter.com/NickGregoryFox5 then there is Bernie Rayno saying no way https://twitter.com/AccuRayno i mentioned nick gregory and craig allen because they tend to be reasonably conservative. it's not like snow88 is making the comments. but, yeah, a significant event seems highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 hard for me to see more than an inch or so....i guess when people talk about being in business or needing to be watched, i was thinking they meant more than snow showers. Sure NYC, PHL, NJ could see a minor accumulation.. South and east of NYC, pretty much all the models have accumulations there. New RGEM ticked NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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