rossi Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Are all players on the field now, so models can get a better sample of everything? We just need one of the model players to hit a home run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hi res NAM 00z... Could get a dusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hi res NAM 00z... Could get a dusting! That's 1 to 3 for Monmouth on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The lasted satellite loops look interesting too as you can see the flow turn up the coast and the high clouds from the city on west are quasi-stationary. This system still needs to be watch, this morning' Greg Allen's post was right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 4k NAM simulated radar is well NW. It's been good lately too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif at a whopping 1014 mb's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Slightly more digging on the back side at 18 - Precip shield looks a little more disorganized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS looks like it might be a tick NW of 18z, but no real differences for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Precip is a tick NW @ 30... .1 6hour line get to li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RGEM actually looks pretty interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RGEM actually looks pretty interesting: rgem.jpg That's a coating around the city, and maybe 1-2" for central/southern NJ and Long Island. Unless there are huge changes, I don't see anyone around here seeing more than that. This is an eastern Carolinas special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Remember folks...models are the end all... They have proven this time after time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I actually think this will be a pretty widespread 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Keeps ticking NW, you have a little decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's a coating around the city, and maybe 1-2" for central/southern NJ and Long Island. Unless there are huge changes, I don't see anyone around here seeing more than that. This is an eastern Carolinas special. Agreed. Although one more small NW shift of 20 miles or so and it could become a 1-3" or 2-4" type of event for NYC. I have a feeling it's gonna be painful to look at the radar on Wednesday and see the steady precip JUST offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Remember folks...models are the end all... They have proven this time after time. I'll never get these kind of posts....models, especially when essentially in agreement, are pretty reliable this close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I actually think this will be a pretty widespread 1-2" GFS definitely not showing this, FWIW. Have to go south of DC before seeing any real accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Compare 1/26 0z GFS with tonight's. Huge difference all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS definitely not showing this, FWIW. Have to go south of DC before seeing any real accumulation. What counts for real accumulation?? Southeastern NJ will see 2-5"/3-6" from this if the models are correct. And LI sees 1-2" and maybe 3" in eastern Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What counts for real accumulation?? Southeastern NJ will see 2-5"/3-6" from this if the models are correct. And LI sees 1-2" and maybe 3" in eastern Suffolk. Agree. We should at least see half inch out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We'd throw a party last winter if this happened, the board would probably be crashing right now, of course this year 1-2 inches is blah to most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If Ocean and Monmouth Counties and onto Long Island see an inch of snow out a system that 36 Hours ago was forecasted 300 miles to our South , then you have to take that as a win . Its not wide spread , but it may just be another example it wants to snow here . As of right now there looks to be .10 inch of liquid on many of the models from the city S and E . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 An inch would be a huge win, those near AC or Cape May are so agonizingly close to something a lot more significant. Oh if only January 25, 2000 could be repeated. We're also not far from a widespread 1-3" around here if things were to shift just a bit further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS definitely not showing this, FWIW. Have to go south of DC before seeing any real accumulation. From Atlantic City, NJ... AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW JERSEY/DELAWARE COASTS. THE LOW STILL LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT IT WOULD NOT BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH LEVEL, AND MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW SOME QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THEREFORE WE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY GREAT QPF POTENTIAL FOR SRN DELAWARE THAN EARLIER. IN ORDER TO KEEP AHEAD OF THE TREND. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN WSW -ADVISORY- FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SRN DELAWARE. OTHER AREAS (PERHAPS CAPE MAY NJ) MAY HAVE SOME ACCUM SNOW TOO...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS STILL LOW. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS definitely not showing this, FWIW. Have to go south of DC before seeing any real accumulation. Gfs has .09" of precip for JFK with temps in the upper teens. 1"-2" there. LI is 1"-3" as well on both the GFS and RGEM with both models having ISP at .15" of total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'll take it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 From Atlantic City, NJ... AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW JERSEY/DELAWARE COASTS. THE LOW STILL LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT IT WOULD NOT BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH LEVEL, AND MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW SOME QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THEREFORE WE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY GREAT QPF POTENTIAL FOR SRN DELAWARE THAN EARLIER. IN ORDER TO KEEP AHEAD OF THE TREND. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN WSW -ADVISORY- FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SRN DELAWARE. OTHER AREAS (PERHAPS CAPE MAY NJ) MAY HAVE SOME ACCUM SNOW TOO...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS STILL LOW. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS NECESSARY. ok, but cape may and southern delaware are pretty far south, so I'm not sure how this refutes what I said about the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JFK looked more like .05 to me, but if you have the actual output at .09 I won't quibble over that. As have been pointed out in endless threads, snow ratios are not merely determined by looking at surface temps. 20-1 ratios are not commonplace. Gfs has .09" of precip for JFK with temps in the upper teens. 1"-2" there.LI is 1"-3" as well on both the GFS and RGEM with both models having ISP at .15" of total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JFK looked more like .05 to me, but if you have the actual output at .09 I won't quibble over that. As have been pointed out in endless threads, snow ratios are not merely determined by looking at surface temps. 20-1 ratios are not commonplace. Bottom line all it will take is another 75 mile shift NW & city is comfortably ensconsced in 1-3 territory when we had less than 10% chance of flurries this time last night.....Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 JMA shifted NW. Blend of the 0z nam and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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