Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'll just leave this here EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1103 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014VALID 12Z SAT FEB 01 2014 - 12Z WED FEB 05 2014...HEAVY SNOW & ICE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MIDATLANTIC & NORTHEAST...THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE PAST FEWDATA CYCLES. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLESOME NOWTHAT THE FLOW REGIME IS CONDUCIVE TO MUCH WETTER STORM SYSTEMSOVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECENS AND CMCEMEANS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RELY UPON FOR A SYNOPTIC BACKBONE TOTHE PATTERN. THAT PATTERN FEATURES A RETURN TO DRIER, MEAN RIDGINGIN THE WEST--DESPITE THE SPLITTING OF ENERGY INTO THESOUTHWEST--AND A BROAD, MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM TEXASTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE KEY TO WHETHER MOST OF THE WINTRYPRECIPITATIONS FALLS EAST OR WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS THETIMING OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THEENSEMBLE ENVELOPE IS FAIRLY SPLIT WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOTSIGNIFICANT PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OCCURS OVERTHE MIDWEST. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT TO HIGHLIGHT THEHAZARD IMPACTS ACROSS THE RANGE OF REGIONS.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Quite a bit of potential over the next week. Per the GFS ensembles, there are at least four possible waves we'll need to track. Most have been focusing on wave 4. Wave 1 (Saturday evening) - There is general agreement that this will be a "warmer" storm, and that Central PA will get well into the warm sector. Also, precipitation will probably be rather light with it. However, there are hints that it may not be as warm/far north as expected, so it can't be completely discounted yet. Wave 2 (Sunday evening) - On the tail end of the front from wave 1, at least one ensemble develops a second wave that delivers a nice, quick dump of snow for most of Central PA (mixing issues far south/east). Wave 3 (Monday evening or Tuesday morning) - Most of the ensembles have this storm in some form, and many show a favorable track for Central PA snow. There is a rather wide spread, though, and there are multiple members that either show a track too far north (warm) or too far south (no precip), and perhaps a member or two that doesn't even really develop the storm. Wave 4 (Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning) - Again, most of the ensembles show this storm in some form. Many of the ensembles are snow to ice. Some are all snow (and a lot of it). At least one only shows a bit of snow. And a couple are probably even snow-ice-rain, especially for the southeastern parts of the region. There is clearly a very wide range of possibilities for the upcoming storms, but the overall pattern is not unfavorable for us, and the way I look at it, with so many potential storms, we should at least manage to get something out of one of them, right!? This usually means go to bed early these next couple nights because the next week most of us will unfortunately be up late waiting on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Central pa on the euro gets a foot plus. The lsv gets 6-8" with alot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z op Euro tracks wave 4 slightly south and east of 12z gfs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro snow to ice for southern tier, snow north. Models keep bouncing back and forth on the track. Where it ends, no one knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro snow to ice for southern tier, snow north. Models keep bouncing back and forth on the track. Where it ends, no one knows. pretty safe to just forecast snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain for next week at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 pretty safe to just forecast snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain for next week at this point lol Ya. I feel plain rain is less likely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ya. I feel plain rain is less likely though. It's going to be a wash. I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 we'll all need roller skates to keep up with the models going back and forth. But man do i like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It's going to be a wash. I can feel it. honestly i wouldn't be pissed if it rained on Saturday to wash away all this salt they have plied on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Models going active for sure. Euro says strap in another big storm at 228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Rain on Saturday is likely, I welcome it though clean some stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Who cares about the rain Saturday. Models barking at two big storms to start Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Who cares about the rain Saturday. Models barking at two big storms to start Feb. Easy man I just agreed with you about the cleaning up thing lol. And the storm we are referencing is a week away. Get too invested is a sure promise of heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 hahaha Euro snow clown map puts all of PA in the 12-18" range for the 6-10 day time period next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Snowy goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Easy man I just agreed with you about the cleaning up thing lol. And the storm we are referencing is a week away. Get too invested is a sure promise of heartbreak. Patterns man. This is not one of these storms that is going to fall off the map. Most of, if not all of PA should get a decent storm next week. Ice or snow, still to hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Easy man I just agreed with you about the cleaning up thing lol. And the storm we are referencing is a week away. Get too invested is a sure promise of heartbreak. Plus,JB said that's good for the big one next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 hey now easy with those maps. you'll give somebody a heart attack... or some will have PME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We lay that kind of snow pack down and with all the ice on the streams and rivers. We could be looking at big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I wonder if at this point it's not snow vs rain but rather snow vs ice...even the westward models want to keep us sub-freezing most of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyone else feel the ground shake around my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Off topic but in 09-10 did you hit 100" ? yes but not living up here, I was in the Manchester MD area, and that was simply amazing. three 20"+ storms in one season, and in a 11 day stretch from Jan 31 to Feb 10, 4", 7", 27" and 28". I will be paying for that forever probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Quite a bit of potential over the next week. Per the GFS ensembles, there are at least four possible waves we'll need to track. Most have been focusing on wave 4. Wave 1 (Saturday evening) - There is general agreement that this will be a "warmer" storm, and that Central PA will get well into the warm sector. Also, precipitation will probably be rather light with it. However, there are hints that it may not be as warm/far north as expected, so it can't be completely discounted yet. Wave 2 (Sunday evening) - On the tail end of the front from wave 1, at least one ensemble develops a second wave that delivers a nice, quick dump of snow for most of Central PA (mixing issues far south/east). Wave 3 (Monday evening or Tuesday morning) - Most of the ensembles have this storm in some form, and many show a favorable track for Central PA snow. There is a rather wide spread, though, and there are multiple members that either show a track too far north (warm) or too far south (no precip), and perhaps a member or two that doesn't even really develop the storm. Wave 4 (Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning) - Again, most of the ensembles show this storm in some form. Many of the ensembles are snow to ice. Some are all snow (and a lot of it). At least one only shows a bit of snow. And a couple are probably even snow-ice-rain, especially for the southeastern parts of the region. There is clearly a very wide range of possibilities for the upcoming storms, but the overall pattern is not unfavorable for us, and the way I look at it, with so many potential storms, we should at least manage to get something out of one of them, right!? I think wave 5 Feb 8-10 has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I think wave 5 Feb 8-10 has potential Oh yeah, I didn't mean to imply that that was the last of our threats. Looks like the pattern is still conducive to more storms even after the midweek threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Saturday looks like a mixed bag...ice,snow and rain.. O course depending on how far north and how much eleavtion will determine waht kind of precip falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 yes but not living up here, I was in the Manchester MD area, and that was simply amazing. three 20"+ storms in one season, and in a 11 day stretch from Jan 31 to Feb 10, 4", 7", 27" and 28". I will be paying for that forever probably. What a year. I had 90" here in Western Adams and I know areas to my south got lots more. 100" is quite a feat for these parts. Schuykill County will score for you sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Reports are the ensembles were warm and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just saw the Canadian snowmap. CPA jackpot with 18"+ for the JST UNV IPT corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Reports are the ensembles were warm and west. Just saw the Canadian snowmap. CPA jackpot with 18"+ for the JST UNV IPT corridor Are you guys talking about the same system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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