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1/21/14 Snowstorm Observations


WeatherFox

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It's broken. ZAhhhhhh

What are your obs looking like in the lower east side dude? Or are you working from home?

We have about 1/3" here in Staten Island....very very small flakes 

Snow is quickly sticking to the streets. Even ones that were salted. Temps really plummeting too. I think we're going to take a good run at getting a foot.

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You can already see some subsidence up in Sussex County and points north as the band in central NJ intensifies. All models however agree that this band will eventually move northward today and expand significantly. This cut off line looks to be right near southern Sussex County and most of the modeling has this as an axis between heavy totals and moderate totals.

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mcd0031.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/ERN MD/SERN PA/DE/NJ/SERN NY/CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 211603Z - 212200Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER HOUR ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE/EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN THE SWRN
VA/NWRN NC/NERN TN VICINITY...WITH HINTS OF SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT NERN THE NERN NC/SERN VA COAST. WITH TIME...THIS
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
CYCLONE...DEEPENING WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNSET...WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED
TO BECOME WELL-DEFINED N/NW OF THE OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NOW OCCURRING FROM THE
ERN HALF OF MD AND ADJACENT NRN VA NEWD TO SRN NJ...WITH AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE LAST HOUR.
EXPECT A CONTINUED EXPANSION -- AND VERY SLOW ENEWD SHIFT -- OF THE
ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF FOCUSED
ASCENT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND UVV OCCURRING WITHIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
LIKELY TO RESIDE ON THE HIGHER END /AVERAGING IN THE 15-1
RANGE/...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER HOUR ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2014

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