LizardMafia Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 love the way Toronto Blizzard usurps victory ~100 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Would bet the farm that the GEM/EURO are too far north with the Sunday/Monday clipper. GFS is the way to go. Dam king may have been onto something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 love the way Toronto Blizzard usurps victory ~100 hrs out Can't wait to school him hard in about 48 hours. I was gentle with him on the Jan 2 storm. Naso much this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looking at the latest model guidance, it looks like there could be some lake effect snow off Lake Ontario tonight for the GTA. All models bring some QPF into the GTA. Maybe an inch or so of fluffy snow. For the Friday night-Saturday clipper, I'm going for 2" or so with very strong winds. For the Sunday-Monday clipper, I'm going to go the conservative route for now and call for 1-2". If models continue to trend north, I will likely raise the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Can't wait to school him hard in about 48 hours. I was gentle with him on the Jan 2 storm. Naso much this time. I've made a boarding career out of awful calls made with extreme authority 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Anything new on that Lake Michigan LES plume that was showing up on the hi-res models yesterday for the west side of the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Anything new on that Lake Michigan LES plume that was showing up on the hi-res models yesterday for the west side of the lake? not happening and not shown on anything i've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Would bet the farm that the GEM/EURO are too far north with the Sunday/Monday clipper. GFS is the way to go. agree oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 not happening and not shown on anything i've seen yeah....looks like some of the hi res models had been popping up enhancement from left over convergence as the next wave came through....but, that can't really be counted on for much at our locals imo.... my bad on jumping the gun a little bit yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 yeah....looks like some of the hi res models had been popping up enhancement from left over convergence as the next wave came through....but, that can't really be counted on for much at our locals imo.... my bad on jumping the gun a little bit yesterday In your defense, that lake snow did show up on ABC7's 4pm microcast yesterday too. So no need to blame yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 as weenie as they are (don't pretend like you don't look) clown maps actually do verify up this way quite a bit. anyway, GFS loving MI!! Best state east of the Rockies for snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z NAM probably not done with some weenie runs for the Friday night/Saturday impulse/front. And it'll be too bullish until the end. But yeah, drops 0.27" LE on LAF. No matter, I still think it's got potential for some relatively high impact stuff with the snow/wind combo...even if totals are only 1-2". Good luck measuring it though. GGEM has similar precip. I don't think we can write off the wetter solutions yet even if it seems a bit out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 +Mood flakes here right now. Always nice to see snow, of any variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GGEM has similar precip. I don't think we can write off the wetter solutions yet even if it seems a bit out of the ordinary. Intensity should be high quality, duration is going to make anything over a tenth or two a little difficult IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GGEM has similar precip. I don't think we can write off the wetter solutions yet even if it seems a bit out of the ordinary. Based on what I've seen so far it looks like 3-5 inches isn't out of the question with west winds gusting up to 45-50mph for several hours. If the temps are cold enough could be a high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GGEM has similar precip. I don't think we can write off the wetter solutions yet even if it seems a bit out of the ordinary. Eh, I don't know. Still, an inch or two of snow with gusty winds will be fairly intense for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 RGEM tomorrow. Band teasing the western shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Very little mention of Friday system in the media. Locals mets calling for "late day flurries" and that's about it. No mention of travel impacts whatsoever Have a feeling the blowing snow is going to catch people off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z NAM is showing gust potential up to 60 mph here late Friday while the snow is falling. Seems a bit overdone given forecast soundings not showing very good mixing but perhaps if things get "squally" enough it could enhance the gusts at the surface...almost like what you see in a thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 as weenie as they are (don't pretend like you don't look) clown maps actually do verify up this way quite a bit. anyway, GFS loving MI!! Best state east of the Rockies for snow! image.jpg Haha, maybe Alpena will finally get their 6" snowfall! --- Not bad. Lot of runs to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Haha, maybe Alpena will finally get their 6" snowfall! --- Not bad. Lot of runs to go though. lol.... and I seriously looked at a house on Huron in Alpena before I chose NW lower. you know something's amiss when Laf is trumping you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro really amped and back south some 988mb in sw WI at 12z Sun then 984mb heading at Detroit, good snows early for northern IL but WI will be the jackpot this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Very little mention of Friday system in the media. Locals mets calling for "late day flurries" and that's about it. No mention of travel impacts whatsoever Have a feeling the blowing snow is going to catch people off guard. Our "mets" if you can call them that are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There is something about Jan 26th, if you had to guess when there might be a Great Lakes snowstorm. Most here would instantly remember the events in 1978 and 1967. However, in between was one of the largest snow squall outbreaks in Ontario history that started on Jan 26, 1971 and lasted about a week including a second storm system on the 31st. That one was particularly bad in Simcoe County north of Toronto as well as north of London. Well, this looks like an increasingly active period and the Toronto snow shield may be about to come down. Tomorrow, I would be not be surprised if some lakeshore areas get persistent heavy snow from slow-moving narrow lake effect bands trapped in the decaying wind field ahead of the collapsing low. Wind directions near the surface may remain southeast to northeast over western Lake Ontario, watch for some 15-25 cm dumpage but rather hit or miss with 3-5 cm more widespread. Friday night and Saturday, would expect 5-10 cm snowfalls with the fast-moving frontal wave and local enhancements to 20-30 cm in SSW wind snow belts. This often catches areas just east of Toronto as well as much of Niagara. The Sunday night low appears capable of exploding into a major snowfall event across the region but in particular Toronto looks well positioned to pick up 15 cm or more. Track issues yet to be fully resolved and this could dive further south than optimal at the last minute, but the air masses are so frigid that any off-lake component can quickly deliver in this pattern. The longer range begins to look even better for more organized heavy snowfalls, if there is slight retrogression as I expect. Sooner or later there will very likely be a region-wide snowstorm in the double digits, can't see this just fading away to bland zonality or suddenly going spring-like without a massive battle developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Intensity should be high quality, duration is going to make anything over a tenth or two a little difficult IMO Disagree very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Disagree very much so. Just to be clear A: I'm talking about Friday B: When I said a tenth or two, i'm talking about QPF which would obviously fluff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Would actually not be surprised to see further upward adjustments in qpf for Friday night. This sometimes happens with these types of fronts. Our only worthwhile system of 2011-12 was the feb 10th arctic front. All week long the models showed the front bringing a widespread stripe of light qpf with it (talking an inch or less), then last minute upward adjustments in qpf made the forecast of 1-2" look like we might be able to eek out 3", and I actually ended up with 4.9" of snow on 0.33" liquid, my biggest snowstorm of that winter. I also recall a similar front in 2003 (this was a time when Madison was FAR from a snow magnet) and what was a lackluster winter in that area to that point was rendered moot as 5" fell in a few hours with blizzard conditions, catching most off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There is something about Jan 26th, if you had to guess when there might be a Great Lakes snowstorm. Most here would instantly remember the events in 1978 and 1967. However, in between was one of the largest snow squall outbreaks in Ontario history that started on Jan 26, 1971 and lasted about a week including a second storm system on the 31st. That one was particularly bad in Simcoe County north of Toronto as well as north of London. Well, this looks like an increasingly active period and the Toronto snow shield may be about to come down. Tomorrow, I would be not be surprised if some lakeshore areas get persistent heavy snow from slow-moving narrow lake effect bands trapped in the decaying wind field ahead of the collapsing low. Wind directions near the surface may remain southeast to northeast over western Lake Ontario, watch for some 15-25 cm dumpage but rather hit or miss with 3-5 cm more widespread. Friday night and Saturday, would expect 5-10 cm snowfalls with the fast-moving frontal wave and local enhancements to 20-30 cm in SSW wind snow belts. This often catches areas just east of Toronto as well as much of Niagara. The Sunday night low appears capable of exploding into a major snowfall event across the region but in particular Toronto looks well positioned to pick up 15 cm or more. Track issues yet to be fully resolved and this could dive further south than optimal at the last minute, but the air masses are so frigid that any off-lake component can quickly deliver in this pattern. The longer range begins to look even better for more organized heavy snowfalls, if there is slight retrogression as I expect. Sooner or later there will very likely be a region-wide snowstorm in the double digits, can't see this just fading away to bland zonality or suddenly going spring-like without a massive battle developing. Great post Roger. And for tonight's event, Environment Canada just issued a Special Weather Statement for the Golden Horseshoe for significant lake effect/enhanced snow. From Environment Canada: City of Toronto 1:21 PM EST Wednesday 22 January 2014 Special weather statement for City of Toronto issued Significant lake enhanced snowfall possible starting tonight. Current information suggests the development of lake effect snow over Lake Ontario potentially impacting areas around the Golden Horseshoe. It is expected the snow band will develop in the late evening hours and persist into Thursday morning rush hour. At the moment the exact location is difficult to determine but it is expected to generate local snowfall amounts on the order of 5 to 10 cm with poor visibilities of less than half a kilometre. If the snow band remains stationary for a long period of time, then 15 cm of snow will be possible and a snow squall warning could be issued. Motorists should exercise caution when driving around the Golden Horseshoe as hazardous driving conditions could develop due to accumulating snow and poor driving visibilities. The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended. Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Just to be clear B: When I said a tenth or two, i'm talking about QPF which would obviously fluff up. I retract my statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I retract my statement. i was responding to a model qpf post on the previous page, should have quoted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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