Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 00z NAM drops almost .2 liquid here on Fri-Sat which could fluff up to a few inches...half of which may be blown to Kokomo. But ratios may not be outrageous given the lack of a really deep DGZ (it's decent but not great) and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Im already sick of the wind this winter. I prefer nice, even snow. The snowpack is already very unevenly distributed here from all the drifting, thats all we need is more wind! But Friday could really be a true blizzard if the wind holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Im already sick of the wind this winter. I prefer nice, even snow. The snowpack is already very unevenly distributed here from all the drifting, thats all we need is more wind! But Friday could really be a true blizzard if the wind holds. I hope Toronto can get in on the action this Friday. Sounds like it might be interesting. Not a lot of snow of course, but it would still be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I hope Toronto can get in on the action this Friday. Sounds like it might be interesting. Not a lot of snow of course, but it would still be interesting. Tough to get much accumulation with a SW wind. Although the dynamics look like they may be strong enough to combat the downsloping a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS looks wetter here Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We just had between 2.5-3 inches of powdery snow across the Peoria area. With those winds and another inch of snow, the rural areas are going to have major issues Friday afternoon and Friday night. No one is talking about at all yet on the TV around here or even ILX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS looks wetter here Friday night Pretty strong low too, 984mb near Georgian Bay. Winds are going to be howling with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The current progged track of the Sunday system is ripe for western shore enhancement off of Lake Michigan and then transitioning to lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The current progged track of the Sunday system is ripe for western shore enhancement off of Lake Michigan and then transitioning to lake effect. Would like to see the synoptic snows north. 0z GFS went back south some. Still manage 6" here this run between now through Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We just had between 2.5-3 inches of powdery snow across the Peoria area. With those winds and another inch of snow, the rural areas are going to have major issues Friday afternoon and Friday night. No one is talking about at all yet on the TV around here or even ILX. Once we finally do warm up (hopefully April ), it will be interesting to see how long some of the snow drifts in open areas around here will take to melt. They are not only deep, they are rock hard. Multiple snowstorms coupled with multiple wind assaults & a few thaws thrown in will do that. Actually...as much as I despise the winds now, my MUCH preferred even, deep snowpack would be long gone before some of the drifts from a windy winter will. I mean, I live in a non-rural area, but I can just see me driving somewhere on a sunny, warm spring day out in the country, the grass bright green, the snow long since melted from my neighborhood...and I will stumble across some ancient drifts. Thats rocking it UP-style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Once we finally do warm up (hopefully April ), it will be interesting to see how long some of the snow drifts in open areas around here will take to melt. They are not only deep, they are rock hard. Multiple snowstorms coupled with multiple wind assaults & a few thaws thrown in will do that. Actually...as much as I despise the winds now, my MUCH preferred even, deep snowpack would be long gone before some of the drifts from a windy winter will. I mean, I live in a non-rural area, but I can just see me driving somewhere on a sunny, warm spring day out in the country, the grass bright green, the snow long since melted from my neighborhood...and I will stumble across some ancient drifts. Thats rocking it UP-style. There is a snow pile here at the airport that is along East Service Drive by the big blue deck that will be here until June. It is easily 15-20' high and as big as a parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS through 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Models are showing an inverted sfc trough over MI Thursday allowing low level winds to become NE briefly before backing to the NW. The GFS and RGEM show a LE band getting very close to Wind Point Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There is a snow pile here at the airport that is along East Service Drive by the big blue deck that will be here until June. It is easily 15-20' high and as big as a parking lot. Crazy. Saw some like that at the malls. Not only size...we are talking how many times has snow been plowed, rained on, replowed, and replowed since December? They are solid ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 00z GGEM looks nice for Friday-Saturday. QPF is over a quarter inch for most of us with near a half inch for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Crazy. Saw some like that at the malls. Not only size...we are talking how many times has snow been plowed, rained on, replowed, and replowed since December? They are solid ice. It is all the snow from the runways, I am 100% serious, it isn't going to melt until June, especially if we keep going the way we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 00z GGEM looks nice for Friday-Saturday. QPF is over a quarter inch for most of us with near a half inch for some. Trends have been to nose up the QPF for the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 00z GEM has about 10hrs of steady snow followed by a brief changeover to rain Friday night before ending here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 00z GEM has about 10hrs of steady snow followed by a brief changeover to rain Friday night before ending here. Wow, surprised to see it changing over to rain on the ptype plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Would like to see the synoptic snows north. 0z GFS went back south some. Still manage 6" here this run between now through Sunday 00z GGEM is north for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Models are showing an inverted sfc trough over MI Thursday allowing low level winds to become NE briefly before backing to the NW. The GFS and RGEM show a LE band getting very close to Wind Point Thursday morning. That would be interesting if we got a band like there was today this far north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It is all the snow from the runways, I am 100% serious, it isn't going to melt until June, especially if we keep going the way we have. i will have to check it out! Love me some big snowpiles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It would be nice if it made it to shore but it wouldn't last long. Inversion heights are up to 15,000 ft Thursday, crazy instability. . That would be interesting if we got a band like there was today this far north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 00z GGEM looks nice for Friday-Saturday. QPF is over a quarter inch for most of us with near a half inch for some. Was just going to post this. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Was just going to post this. Looks good While it looks good, it seems a bit unusual to say the least. How often do you get those kind of amounts well south of a surface low with that kind of trajectory/track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 While it looks good, it seems a bit unusual to say the least. How often do you get those kind of amounts well south of a surface low with that kind of trajectory/track? Yeah looking at Friday-Saturday across the region...do the models break out that precip in WAA south of the surface low and ahead of the front? Low-mid level winds will be ripping rather nicely all things considered. There won't be any Gulf moisture with the system but the models show a nice moisture envelope with the system. Then after the WAA snows a squall along the front? The models show like 12 hours of snow here in SE OH early Saturday which seems odd given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah looking at Friday-Saturday across the region...do the models break out that precip in WAA south of the surface low and ahead of the front? Low-mid level winds will be ripping rather nicely all things considered. There won't be any Gulf moisture with the system but the models show a nice moisture envelope with the system. Then after the WAA snows a squall along the front? The models show like 12 hours of snow here in SE OH early Saturday which seems odd given the setup. Yeah, most of the precip is pre-frontal. Dynamics are nice. Not saying something like the GGEM can't happen but I can't think of a recent system like this off the top of my head that laid down widespread advisory if not spotty low end warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Considering the arctic air crashing in behind the system, I cant for the life of me see rain mixing in. I cant ever remember a setup like this. I could be way off but didn't the Blizzard of 1977 (The Buffalo Blizzard) Have a large amount of prefrontal snow with large temp drops and very strong winds throughout the lakes and ohio valley? Maybe the setup is similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah, most of the precip is pre-frontal. Dynamics are nice. Not saying something like the GGEM can't happen but I can't think of a recent system like this off the top of my head that laid down widespread advisory if not spotty low end warning snows.We've certainly seen decent pre frontal rains...I just don't think it's common to have a sub 990mb low track over MI while temps support snow all the way down to the Ohio River. It will be interesting to watch what models do with QPF over the coming days. The GFS appears to show parts of IN/OH/MI getting into the left exit portion of the incoming jet streak which may help. If we get a strong LLJ I suppose this combined with the upper level support could generate decent pre-frontal precip. Normally when you get precip on a strong LLJ though the jet is tapping the Gulf...not frozen over corn fields...so I'd be inclined to believe the somewhat lower QPF numbers. Even so, 2-3" of wind driven snow in a short period of time followed by crashing temps is fun enough. If for some reason the GGEM is right and there's a more widespread 3-6" type snow that would be quite an event and given the winds currently shown could promt blizzard warnings. But I'm skeptical of that for now. Re: Rain. The models always seem to underdo the warm push of air ahead of these strong lows. If you get a 50 knot+ low level jet ripping ahead of the front you will bring warm air northward...granted, I think north of the Ohio River probably stays all snow and north of I-70 definitely stays all snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 While it looks good, it seems a bit unusual to say the least. How often do you get those kind of amounts well south of a surface low with that kind of trajectory/track? I was actually going to ask if there was an analog for this. Textbook meterology 101 says that a low passing thru the lakes under 'normal' winter conditions is usually some sort of light mix or rain here changing to post-frontal snow showers. than again nothing has been normal about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.