hurricaneman Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 12z Euro is interesting, I hope a met can comment on the tropical nature of the Western Atlantic system. Also has the tropical system the GFS has been touting the last week or so but heres the thing, could the GFS have gotten it wrong because it had the MJO come too fast into phases 8,1,2 and therefore had this possibly 9 to 10 days earlier than what the Euro shows as the Euro has it going into those phases 7 to 10 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Also has the tropical system the GFS has been touting the last week or so but heres the thing, could the GFS have gotten it wrong because it had the MJO come too fast into phases 8,1,2 and therefore had this possibly 9 to 10 days earlier than what the Euro shows as the Euro has it going into those phases 7 to 10 days from now hurricaneman, I respectfully disagree about what I bolded. My look at the 12Z Euro doesn't show the same system that the GFS touted over and over in the W. Caribbean. The 12Z Euro still has the E Pac. TC, which moves westward below MX through day 10. It never moves to the Caribbean or Gulf. Anything it shows on day 10 in the W. Caribbean is very weak/not well organized and is something else imo. My assessment of the GFS after having ~30 runs over an 11 day period (~20 runs in a row toward the end) with TC genesis by 10/10 in the SW Caribbean (no time slippage whatsoever unlike the May/June debacle that slipped endlessly for many days) before a move northward toward the GoM: a fail and a bigger tease since the genesis didn't ever slip back in time over that 11 day period. This makes the third main mulitple run fail for the GFS on a false TC genesis in/near the Western Caribbean this season. The other was in mid-Sep. The Euro far outdid the GFS for all three of these failures since it had virtually none of its runs with these false geneses. Regarding this latest GFS failure, I saw only one Euro run with only a very weak low in the NW Caribbean that never got strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Attention should be shifting to the West Atlantic, we know the West Carrib system will most likely fail in the short-term, within 5 days. NHC outlines its probability as 10/20% respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 That one people will say is going to be a fish but Bermuda could be in the way looking at all the models but the question is will it be tropical or subtropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 the GFS has the low that is currently northeast of the lesser antilles moving slowly SW towards Puerto Rico and moves it to near Bermuda at day 16, thinking the GFS is on drugs again as I'm more likely to believe the Euro as it seems to have a much better handle on that system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 0z Euro allows the western atlantic disturbance to become en-trained along the east coast cold front, very late recurve. The forecasted intensity is somewhat bullish. Euro featured Hurricane Edouard as a 1010mb low up until genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 A robust cckw is advancing E toward the Atlantic Basin. It is possible that there could be a storm or two develop during the next 7 to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 By the way the wave the models are showing heading towards Florida is not 99L like I previously thought but the wave at 13N 42W so oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The whole Atlantic basin is very hostile. Shear is running above normal in all zones, except along the East Coast. That will change as soon as troughing returns to the East Coast next week. I don't see much as far as significant development...perhaps we get one more weak system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 0z Euro allows the western atlantic disturbance to become en-trained along the east coast cold front, very late recurve. The forecasted intensity is somewhat bullish. Euro featured Hurricane Edouard as a 1010mb low up until genesis. Euro is quite similiar to the GFS in regards to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Euro is quite similiar to the GFS in regards to this They're not at all alike. GFS takes 99L out to sea very quickly. The Euro shoves it back NW for a short time due to a ridge north of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The former SW Caribbean prospect that GaWx and many others were following on the GFS, which croaked to the Euro a couple of days ago may still have a small hope. Models, including the Euro and GFS have a couple of low level energies, both on each basin. The EPac energy consolidated a bit more yesterday, but lacked organized convection...the Atl energy wasn't that convectively strong either, but was a bit more active. This has continued today, and the EPac energy has weakened a bit. Also, the anticyclone is currently straddling Central America, but has retrograded a bit, towards the SW Caribbean, hence a bit better upper level conditions there, compared to the EPac. A strong bout of convection has been ongoing for most of the morning over the energy in the Atlantic, which may strengthen it. There may be some changes in the modeling, as we are approaching borderline conditions where the balance could tip one way or the other. Currently development chances near the SW Caribbean are still low, but the next 24 hours may prove critical for prospect changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Now up to 50% chance of sub-tropical/tropical development of the system NE of the Leewards. Whatever comes of it looks to head toward Bermuda although there are some indications a strong high could stop its northward movement in its tracks, inducing a westward jog. A similar movement is forecast to occur in the W Pac with typhoon Vongfong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 12z Euro doesn't appear to do much with 99L. It quickly sends it out to sea as maybe a weak storm/subtropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siker Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 12z Euro sends a TS into South Florida from the East at 240 hours, forms from the area southeast of 99L. Quite long range but it's the Euro. UKMET has a similar storm on a similar path but doesn't run far enough to see the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Looks like something straight out of March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 12z Euro sends a TS into South Florida from the East at 240 hours, forms from the area southeast of 99L. Quite long range but it's the Euro. UKMET has a similar storm on a similar path but doesn't run far enough to see the outcome. ECMWF has that wave just barely missing recurvature twice - once at 72h and again at 168h, and also somehow keeps it in a low shear region in an otherwise hostile basin for 10 days straight. Talk about threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 The fact that the all the major models have this missing recurvature is somethingas we usually don't have systems make it to Florida or farther west from the MDR but Kate in 1985 is an example of such a thing so if this does happen as modeled by the models then it wouldn't be without precidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 12z UKMET made things somewhat interesting with the wave that's currently near 50W. The ECMWF appears to have this system around the same area, just less developed. Even the 00z parallel GFS has something going on... The moderate CCKW passage along with a semi-favorable MJO may allow for the wave near 50W to become gradually better organized over the next 3-5 days as most of the global models show. There is an area of 850mb vort consolidating with this wave and convection in the area is plentiful, but I'm really not sold on anything outside of a loosely organized invest approaching the Lesser Antilles by Monday or so. If the wave begins to show signs of organization once 99L begins to lift north, then things may become more promising. While I know this isn't the most exciting thing ever, it's still better than the past month of "activity" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Yeah, the instability over the Tropical Atlantic briefly made it to normal for the first time since January. So it's possible we could see a couple of named storms like the Euro is hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 12z Euro sends a TS into South Florida from the East at 240 hours, forms from the area southeast of 99L. Quite long range but it's the Euro. UKMET has a similar storm on a similar path but doesn't run far enough to see the outcome. UKMET text product runs out longer: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/data/tropicalcyclone/wtnt80.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Regardless of the eventual outcome of this, it's nice to finally see some deep convection in the Atlantic. The waves near 50W and 30W have really flourished this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Quite the slow moving little bomb wandering on the Euro at 240 hours in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 It's picking up now because all science operations just ended with the HS3 program (forever, unless they re-new it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 10, 2014 Author Share Posted October 10, 2014 looks like 90L will be coming later today east of the Lesser Antilles but as for track and intensity we'll know more by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 99L looks very good this morning. Will likely see a subtropical depression or storm out of this next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Subtropical Depression #7 has been declared and a Tropical Storm Watch has been hoisted for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 90L is really the system to watch the next several days. Its going to have to thread the needle shear wise for the next couple of days, but its probably the only system that has a realistic (although still small) chance of impacting the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.2N 56.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 12.10.2014 36 17.2N 56.8W 1012 20 1200UTC 12.10.2014 48 17.0N 58.0W 1011 30 0000UTC 13.10.2014 60 16.9N 59.4W 1007 32 1200UTC 13.10.2014 72 17.3N 61.0W 1004 41 0000UTC 14.10.2014 84 18.0N 62.6W 1002 42 1200UTC 14.10.2014 96 19.3N 64.5W 1002 43 0000UTC 15.10.2014 108 21.1N 66.6W 996 53 1200UTC 15.10.2014 120 22.3N 69.8W 990 51 0000UTC 16.10.2014 132 23.0N 72.2W 991 51 1200UTC 16.10.2014 144 23.3N 73.5W 988 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Another sleeper system near 30W The less-reliable models have been developing this for a few days now. Wouldn't be surprised if it was tagged 91L soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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