Eyewall2005 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 90L is really the system to watch the next several days. Its going to have to thread the needle shear wise for the next couple of days, but its probably the only system that has a realistic (although still small) chance of impacting the US. Highly unlikely if u asked me with all that trofiness of the southeast next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Dry air and shear still affecting STD-07. Visible loop shows high clouds racing off toward the north west, arc clouds to the south-southwest and two interesting little surface vortices rotating around in the overall circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 12z ECMWF still develops 90L into a strong hurricane that goes on to impact the Bahamas. Intensity guidance is also quite bullish... Oh and STD 7 will likely become STS Fay by 5pm per atcf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Dry air and shear still affecting STD-07. Visible loop show high racing off toward the north west, arc clouds to the south-southwest and two interesting little surface vortices rotating around in the overall circulation. Dude, it's a subtropical cyclone. This is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Impressive for October 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on SubtropicalStorm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized inassociation with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of theLesser Antilles. Further development is possible over theweekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive fortropical cyclone formation by early next week. This system isexpected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the nextcouple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Ricoshould monitor the progress of this system.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 So much for all that boring Atlantic tropical talk. 91L has been designated W of the Cape Verde Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 90L looks like it becomes a cat 1 fish according to almost all guidance. Gets picked up by trough day 4 and recurves fairly sharply at around 68W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Dry air and shear still affecting STD-07. Visible loop shows high clouds racing off toward the north west, arc clouds to the south-southwest and two interesting little surface vortices rotating around in the overall circulation. Dude, it's a subtropical cyclone. This is normal. "Dude", one of the reasons for my original post was to point out some interesting features in the visible loop for STD-07 (especially since we've had such a boring period recently in the Atlantic). Yes, in addition I was also noting these things as reasons for it not yet being fully tropical. Sorry if for whatever reason it offended you. As I expected yesterday; STD-07 has now become fully tropical despite still dealing with the dry air and shear, but thanks for your post, "Dude". TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720141100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014Tropical Storm Fay made the transition to a tropical cyclone around0600 UTC based on AMSU and other satellite data that arrived afterthe previous advisory was released. An Air Force Reservereconnaissance aircraft confirmed this transition had occurred, whenit made a pass through the northwestern and northern quadrantsindicating that the radius of maximum wind had decreased to about 40n mi. A blend of satellite intensity estimates, flight-level surfacewind conversions, and reliable SFMR surface winds support increasingthe intensity to 60 kt. The latest center dropsonde data suggests acentral pressure of about 991 mb.The initial motion estimate is 355/14. Other than the centerredeveloping a little farther west and closer to the deepconvection, the overall track forecast and reasoning remainsunchanged form the previous advisory. Fay is expected to continue tomove northward and then northeastward around the western peripheryof a strong mid-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and thenrecurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase inforward speed by 36 hours. The official track forecast closelyfollows the multi-model consensus TVCN.The strength and direction of the current vertical wind shear isforecast to remain unchanged for the next 24 hours, so no change inintensity indicated during that time. By 36 hours, the shear isforecast to increase to more than 40 kt from the southwest, whichshould induce a weakening trend until the cyclone is absorbed by astrong cold front in about 48 hours.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 11/1500Z 27.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 30.1N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 33.0N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 35.3N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 So much for all that boring Atlantic tropical talk. 91L has been designated W of the Cape Verde Islands. 10112014 1145Z ALT avn-l.jpg Well if we can call a bunch of sheared ugly wannabe tc's busy I understand its become the norm in this basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Well if we can call a bunch of sheared ugly wannabe tc's busy I understand its become the norm in this basin. We get it, you're tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 90L looks like it becomes a cat 1 fish according to almost all guidance. Gets picked up by trough day 4 and recurves fairly sharply at around 68W. The one behind that looks like it might be a player for the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 The one behind that looks like it might be a player for the US. Looks like steering becomes weak in the next four days, with a possible tendency north and east after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 The one behind that looks like it might be a player for the US. Um...what model guidance shows that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Again GFS... :0( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 The fact that there is something trying to form near Nicaragua and Houndoras is giving reason not to totally discount the GFS but the last year or 2 is making it harder to believe than pre upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Invest 90L is looking pretty organized already. This could be declared a TD by tomorrow. October is suddenly not looking so boring with at least two systems to this point. Also, 91L to the east has a small chance. The CONUS shouldn't be threatened imo by any of these three regardless. This will be interesting for our contest. Edit: The 0Z Euro is again showing a sig. TC just east of the Bahamas by late week from 90L. The CONUS has little chance to be threatened by 90L imo as I don't see the ridging to its north needed to give it a westerly enough component toward the east coast. However, it is still too early to be ~100% confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 1) 90L: up to 90% now SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion ofthe low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundredmiles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs oforganization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft willbe investigating the system this afternoon to determine if atropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmentaland ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive foradditional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola andthe southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this systemsince tropical storm warnings and watches could be required forportions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Ricolater this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locallyheavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move acrossthe Leeward Islands starting later today.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.$$Forecaster Stewart 2) TS Fay Fay gave Bermuda gusts over 90 mph! She is up to 70 mph sustained. It is possible Fay could officially sneak up to cat. 1 'cane status later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Gonzalo! 000WTNT33 KNHC 121745TCPAT3BULLETINTROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS......TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.4N 58.4WABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPEABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FORGUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMYTHE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICALSTORM WARNING FOR ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICALSTORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICALSTORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* GUADELOUPE* DESIRADE* LES SAINTES* MARIE GALANTE* ST.MARTIN* ST. BARTHELEMY* ST.MAARTIN* SABA* ST. EUSTATIUS* BARBUDA* ANTIGUA* ANGUILLA* ST. KITTS* NEVIS* MONTSERRATA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* PUERTO RICO* VIEQUES* CULEBRA* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDSA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHINTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTOFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THEUNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONALMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. GONZALO ISMOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERALMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURNTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLYMONDAY MORNING.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THECOAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDEPREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTALRAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARDISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND...AND EASTERN PUERTORICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDSTONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND AFFECTTHE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESESWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTCONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.$$FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 The 18z Best Track has raised Fay to hurricane intensity...if anyone cares. Not too surprising since the overall cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this morning. On its closest pass to Bermuda, Fay produced sustained winds of 61 mph with gusts up to 82 mph. Sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 109 mph were recorded at 140ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 It took the recent SST rise over the Tropical Atlantic for Gonzalo to have a shot at being the strongest storm of the season south of 25N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Fay has just been officially designated the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic season, which makes sense in retrospect considering that Bermuda took a pretty significant blow. Gonzalo could end up as the 6th, which would mean we'd be closing in on a normal season in terms of # of H's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Looks like we have a late active period in the basin. Gonzalo could be our second Major hurricane. Euro shows a central Atlantic subtropical storm and GFS shows a W Caribbean storm (again) in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 All the models are showing a low in the BOC at about 168hrs and coming from the EPAC , might be something to watch in the next week or so but with these type of Gyres it could form in th SW Caribbean, NW Caribbean or southern GOM also so thats another thing to watch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The 18z GFS and 12z Euro seem to use a deep trough to pull a GOM system into FL and string it along the East coast much of next week. Saw Huffman's tweet on this. Thoughts on likelihood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The overnight Euro and GFS are insistent in developing a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche later this week. Typically the tail end of a frontal boundary in the Southern Gulf in October is a place to monitor for any tropical development. The reliable guidance suggests the monsoonal trough will fester near the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. Pressure falls are expected in the .Bay of Campeche and a slow drift of a surface low is possible into next week as the area of disturbed weather become better organized and it is possible.that a tropical storm could form early next week. The various Coastal Texas NWS offices are mentioning increasing Easterly winds and higher tides in response to this potential developing TC. Interests from the NE Gulf Coast and the W Coast of Florida may want to monitor developments this weekend in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The overnight Euro and GFS are insistent in developing a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche later this week. Typically the tail end of a frontal boundary in the Southern Gulf in October is a place to monitor for any tropical development. The reliable guidance suggests the monsoonal trough will fester near the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. Pressure falls are expected in the .Bay of Campeche and a slow drift of a surface low is possible into next week as the area of disturbed weather become better organized and it is possible.that a tropical storm could form early next week. The various Coastal Texas NWS offices are mentioning increasing Easterly winds and higher tides in response to this potential developing TC. Interests from the NE Gulf Coast and the W Coast of Florida may want to monitor developments this weekend in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. While model guidance is hinting at possible development down in the Bay of Campeche...upper level winds will be howling from the west across the northern half of the Gulf on the order of 70+ kts. Looks like a trough will dive down the East Coast sending a frontal boundary down into the Gulf, which increases the shear dramatically. If it even tries to head north or east, it'll get torn to pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The whole Atlantic basin is very hostile. Shear is running above normal in all zones, except along the East Coast. That will change as soon as troughing returns to the East Coast next week. I don't see much as far as significant development...perhaps we get one more weak system? This forecast worked out well for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 This forecast worked out well for you. Hey, even the best are wrong a few times. But in all seriousness, I think Gonzalo threw a lot of forecasts off. He threaded the needle in the Atlantic. Found the one conducive area in an otherwise hostile basin and took advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Almost all models, reliable or not, have cyclogenesis east of Tampico. The steering pattern in the SW GoM pretty much collapses, which adds uncertainty to a forecast past day 5...just as an example, the 06z GFS has the cyclone still meandering in the BoC at hour 384. What happens is that there's a persistent and strong Alaska low forecasted for days to come...that would pump the heights over the central part of the CONUS and central Canada, so at a time that experiences troughs every week or so at this time of the year, like the S and SE, only shortwave energy will go under the ridging, in a split pattern...and it happens that the shortwaves are forecasted to be rather weak, hence bypassing the cyclone near the BoC. Also, this shortwaves preclude the rising of heights as well, so a ridge can't get established to steer the cyclone to the west. Currently I favor cyclogenesis in the SW GoM, as there's overwhelming support from the models, but I'd be wary of any track forecast past day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Almost all models, reliable or not, have cyclogenesis east of Tampico. The steering pattern in the SW GoM pretty much collapses, which adds uncertainty to a forecast past day 5...just as an example, the 06z GFS has the cyclone still meandering in the BoC at hour 384. What happens is that there's a persistent and strong Alaska low forecasted for days to come...that would pump the heights over the central part of the CONUS and central Canada, so at a time that experiences troughs every week or so at this time of the year, like the S and SE, only shortwave energy will go under the ridging, in a split pattern...and it happens that the shortwaves are forecasted to be rather weak, hence bypassing the cyclone near the BoC. Also, this shortwaves preclude the rising of heights as well, so a ridge can't get established to steer the cyclone to the west. Currently I favor cyclogenesis in the SW GoM, as there's overwhelming support from the models, but I'd be wary of any track forecast past day 4. Very complex and overall messy synoptic pattern after about day 7...especially on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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