Amped Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Still a lot of potential If a storm can stall near the Yucatan Channel. The wave splitting into two pieces really complicates the forecast though. 18z GFS is has a fairly deep system by 180hrs. Edit: See 18z GEFS p006 for a lol solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Special outlook to update discussion on low pressure area over theBay of Campeche1. Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that showers andthunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in the southernBay of Campeche have increased and become better organized duringthe past hour or two. If the current development trend continues,tropical cyclone advisories will be initiated later this eveningor overnight. Interests in Mexican state of Campeche and elsewherein the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this systemas tropical storm warnings could need to be issued on short notice.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 It is now a T.D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Not really thread worthy...for now The cyclone should weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night. If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 " The cyclone should weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night. If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner." We'll see... They are right that dry air will be a problem in the latter part of the forecast, but if the vertical shear remains low (a possibility if TD#9 moves south of the NHC forecast track) than a GFS solution is certainly possible. I'm pretty sure the NHC forecasters have Nate (2011) in the back in their minds as an analog, a storm that failed to intensify seemingly due to dry air intrusion. However, Nate (2011) moved very slowly in the Bay of Campeche and upwelled some extremely cool waters (< 24C) in the shallow thermocline in the Gulf of Mexico. TD#9 will not have the same problem if it stalls out over the Caribbean. We just saw with Gonzalo that a TC can rapidly intensify in a seemingly dry air environment if the vertical wind shear is low enough. If you gave me the NHC forecast to bet on, I'd take the over intensity wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 This season has really awoken. It isn't such a quiet season anymore thanks to October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 This season has really awoken. It isn't such a quiet season anymore thanks to October! 92L is also starting to get jealous... nice little cirrus plume developing as it keeps going in cyclonic loops around the non-tropical environmental cyclonic flow its embedded in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 18z for the lols. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102118/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 18z for the lols. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102118/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html 00z gfs certainly goes bonkers with the storm just like 18z. Probably should wait for the Euro to come on board before getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 HWRF gives Nine a good chance of redevelopment after it exits the Yucatan. HWRF has been a little too bullish this year on a few storms but nonetheless, interesting to see the Gulf/Atlantic finally getting active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Is the new GFS offline? It no longer appears along side the GFS at 0Z and 12Z in the 2D section? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Any chance that a TC could form directly from the enhanced cloud over the Yucatan Channel now, rather than waiting for TD 9 to arrive? Unrelated, but contest entrants note, there are two more points available for your NOV-DEC forecast and the provisional scoring shows that you might want to issue your forecast despite that small reward. No rush, we still have ten days to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The GFS is back to no storm in the gulf. Its run to run continuity with these types of events has been horrible this year. Convective feedback or just in dire need of the upgrade going online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The GFS is back to no storm in the gulf. Its run to run continuity with these types of events has been horrible this year. Convective feedback or just in dire need of the upgrade going online? The main problem with the 12z GFS run for the systems prospects is that it takes TD#9 into Central America and its not far away enough from land to re-develop. That's quite a bit different from the ECMWF which just fails to redevelop the low-level circulation after meandering for several days in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The main problem with the 12z GFS run for the systems prospects is that it takes TD#9 into Central America and its not far away enough from land to re-develop. That's quite a bit different from the ECMWF which just fails to redevelop the low-level circulation after meandering for several days in the Caribbean. Also the main low level energy is farther west in the 12z run, but the anticyclone is still east, so there's stronger shear, whereas the previous runs develop the cyclone under the favorable upper level environment of an anticyclone aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 So much for 09L doing anything. The entire Yucatan Channel area is a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yesterday made a record 9 years since a hurricane made landfall in Florida. What an incredible stretch...in a rather active period in the Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 I wouldn't discount 94L{ex td9} yet as it seems to be showing signs of life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yesterday made a record 9 years since a hurricane made landfall in Florida. What an incredible stretch...in a rather active period in the Atlantic basin. Aside from 2005 and 2008 as far as canes are concerned, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Yesterday made a record 9 years since a hurricane made landfall in Florida. What an incredible stretch...in a rather active period in the Atlantic basin.And two tropical landfalls in New Jersey in two consecutive seasons; go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 recon sheduled to go into 94L tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 recon sheduled to go into 94L tuesday The Tuesday recon timing is interesting. IF this is ever going to do become a TD, it had better hurry up and do it because the model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 The Tuesday recon timing is interesting. IF this is ever going to do become a TD, it had better hurry up and do it because the model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing? This looks to be organizing pretty quickly. It seems the NHC chances for development will be raised at 8 PM. We'll see. I think it may only have 12 hours to get stronger due to too much land interaction afterward per models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 The Tuesday recon timing is interesting. IF this is ever going to do become a TD, it had better hurry up and do it because the model consensus suggests it has no more than ~12 hours to do so before moving inland toward the west. Does anyone disagree on this timing?. Youre absolutely right: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 262338 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 . Youre absolutely right: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 262338 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain Yes, but I just posted before you that I thought they were going to go up from 10% due to organizing/increased thunderstorms during just the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Yes, but I just posted before you that I thought they were going to go up from 10% due to organizing/increased thunderstorms during just the last few hours. Delete that post so i dont have to reduce it to 50% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Delete that post so i dont have to reduce it to 50% correct Hehe. Satellite pics definitely suggest it has been organizing rather well over the last few hours. I would have thought based strictly on that a rise to near the 20-30% area for the chance within 48 hours of a TD (which really would be the chance within only 12 hours since land would prevent it afterward per models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 They just raised it to 30% fwiw: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Although this system is showing signs of development, the low is forecast to move southwestward inland over Nicaragua later today. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras during the day. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Up to 100%! Hanna! Just in the nick of time before supposedly moving inland. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 835 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook to describe increased organization of low pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Updated: The small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation. As a result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a Special Advisory will be issued by 900 am EDT...1300 UTC. Tropical storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 IMHO, I think it's a waste of government resources to classify a minimal storm that will be inland later today and completed dissipated by tomorrow. I think a general population wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a minimal tropical storm and a day of rain and wind anyway. Thankfully your opinion means zero in this matter and it has far more to do with properly classifying a tropical system as well as assisting in providing data for watches/warnings for our neighbors in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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