IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It's pretty common for these systems to largely miss this area. The low develops once it reaches the baraclonc zone offshore. You can see looking at the high res models how the precip just develops 3-6 hours to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It's pretty common for these systems to largely miss this area. The low develops once it reaches the baraclonc zone offshore. You can see looking at the high res models how the precip just develops 3-6 hours to late. They can also sneak up on people last minute. I wouldn't be surprised if models struggled with this until under 24 hrs and even then there could be some surprises like some saw yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'd toss this for now til we see the ensembles, GGEM, Euro, the normally way west NAM at this range is further east than the GFS, although the GFS has not had too many hiccups this year inside 4 days I'd be cautious still. I'd toss this for now til we see the ensembles, GGEM, Euro, the normally way west NAM at this range is further east than the GFS, although the GFS has not had too many hiccups this year inside 4 days I'd be cautious still. I wouldn't toss anything since its still over 2 days away and we won't need much qpf to get snowcover and all surfaces covered because of the very cold airmass it has to work with - this actually is a very dynamic situation because of the clashes in airmasses with fresh arctic air and a warmer ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 They can also sneak up on people last minute. I wouldn't be surprised if models struggled with this until under 24 hrs and even then there could be some surprises like some saw yesterday.Agreed, but I wouldn't expect anything unless I lived on the coast or LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Agreed, but I wouldn't expect anything unless I lived on the coast or LI. Even then, I'm still not expecting anything. Just liking the trend. From 0z to 6z to 12z, we'll see where it goes from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol at you guys dismissing the tues threat. This hasn't trended away from you it's trending towards you . If anything you should be looking at data that supports this. Like take a look at the last 4 runs of the GFS and NAM. Wait for the Canadian then the Euro see If this Trend is seen by all the global models To dismiss this out of hand to me is premature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol at you guys dismissing the tues threat. This hasn't trended away from you it's trending towards you . If anything you should be looking at data that supports this. Like take a look at the last 4 runs of the GFS and NAM. Wait for the Canadian then the Euro see If this Trend is seen by all the global models To dismiss this out of hand to me is premature I don't see anyone dismissing it. We're just being cautious about jumping on board just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I don't see anyone dismissing it. We're just being cautious about jumping on board just yet. Imo jump what do u have to lose In all honesty yesterday got my attention , so this is trending better so I'm inclined to buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS ens are a tick nw. .10 back to del river and .25 to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Nice trend on the GEFS. With decent ratios, that would be 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Imo jump what do u have to lose In all honesty yesterday got my attention , so this is trending better so I'm inclined to buy it Yeah for a solid inch or two..just not ready to jump on board for more yet and hey I'll take whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah for a solid inch or two..just not ready to jump on board for more yet and hey I'll take whateverFair. It's a nickel and dime system. Except if you are on Long Island .25 thru that air would b nice . I Will take 2 to get the ball rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1143 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014VALID JAN 19/1200 UTC THRU JAN 23/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...==================================================12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES==================================================NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TOSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.==================================================...AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH......COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFSTHE LAST FEW CANADIAN RUNS HAVE BEEN FAST AND WELL OFFSHORE WITHTHE COASTAL LOW. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS WAS SOMEWHAT FLAT ANDFARTHER OUT TO SEA RELATIVE TO PRIOR AND MORE RECENT RUNS OF THEGFS. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM...ARE MOREREPRESENTATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT OPERATIONAL MODELCONSENSUS. STILL...THERE IS SOME MEANINGFUL SPREAD IN THEENSEMBLES...AND A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWFENSEMBLES PRODUCE A DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH POSSIBLEIMPLICATIONS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEWENGLAND. THIS BEARS WATCHING. GIVEN THE CURRENT SUITE OFGUIDANCE...A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS SHOULD SERVE AS A GOODSTARTING POINT. OPC 48 hr surface - look in- http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The 12Z GEM was way closer at 60 than the 00Z was at 72, it doesnt seem as good as the GFS but it moved west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hmmm...somewhat compelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro is .05-.10 for the area. Not as far west as the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 FWIW, RPM shows a couple of inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Check out my blog on this threat at liveweatherblogs.com. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Check out my blog on this threat at liveweatherblogs.com. Thanks. this one ? I featured this one in a comment I made in the banter thread http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=70024&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 this one ? I featured this one in a comment I made in the banter thread http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=70024&Itemid=179 Earplugs, gas, stabilizer and snowblower ready. Might need it .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Check out my blog on this threat at liveweatherblogs.com. Thanks. Is this what you meant to highlight? Saturday January 25th 2014 snowstorm...not a blizzard- just for hurricane. Back to group View all discussions All members Share this Snow time starts after Saturday morning around 3am. Total snow accumulations 8-14 locally 20 inches of heavy wet snow. I'm going on a limb and predicting snow without any data. enjoy the snow cause I want it just it as much as I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 this one ? I featured this one in a comment I made in the banter thread http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=70024&Itemid=179 No that's not the one I created. I'm the NYC metro met blogger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Is this what you meant to highlight? Saturday January 25th 2014 snowstorm...not a blizzard- just for hurricane. Back to group View all discussions All members Share this Snow time starts after Saturday morning around 3am. Total snow accumulations 8-14 locally 20 inches of heavy wet snow. I'm going on a limb and predicting snow without any data. enjoy the snow cause I want it just it as much as I do. That's not the one I created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Serf have shifted west. Looks like there are some members amped up. Over .25 for NYC with the .50 contour close to eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah for a solid inch or two..just not ready to jump on board for more yet and hey I'll take whatever I'd be happy with anything that fully covered the grass given how progressive the pattern is. There just isn't time for anything to amplify enough to deliver more than a couple or few inches. Still will be nice though if it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 This threat isn't for me. Less than 0.10" even on the more amped up SREF mean, which judging from the Euro is likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 SREF plumes show near 6 inches for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Serf have shifted west. Looks like there are some members amped up. Over .25 for NYC with the .50 contour close to eastern LI. Lol.....mean now has ISP at 8" and 4 members near 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Mean for Ewr 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 No that's not the one I created. I'm the NYC metro met blogger. Mean this in gentlest way but that website needs a MAJOR overhaul in display, structure, and organization. Its not easy to navaigate at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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