Doorman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Highlighted for clarity would this 19 mb drop (EXTRAP) be considered Bombogenesis??? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just a little more of a shift and we're in the game in NNJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Easy to see the changes towards the more amplified solutions on the RGEM. Despite the progressive and fast flow this is a very energetic shortwave and the ridging out ahead of it is becoming interesting. The PV, additionally, is east of the position you'd want it to be in but it is almost acting as a pseudo block to slow down the flow enough upstream and allow the shortwave to amplify up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Highlighted for clarity A_48hrbw.gif would this 19 mb drop (EXTRAP) be considered Bombogenesis??? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Almost. If it occurs earlier, then this storm will supply what we have been demanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If we get a little more amplification in the next few runs we could move the heaver snow band over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 18z gfs is digging more then 12z. It should be wetter this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The GFS has also completely changed the evolution aloft heading towards the MS Valley at 36 hours. Very similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 45 light snow and steady snow by dca/Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 48 light snow continues. Steady snow Mason-Dixon Line and dca area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 This s/w has trended much more energetic straight into the MS Valley through 48 hours. Base of the trough into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 51 steady snow up to phl-ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 CCB is sitting 25 miles off the coast at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 54 steady snow into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 NYC about .25 and ewr. .10 back to del river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just take a look at the changes aloft, all you really need to see. Precipitation shield adjusted NW as well and more spacing/less compressed flow with room for CCB development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just take a look at the changes aloft, all you really need to see. Precipitation shield adjusted NW as well and more spacing/less compressed flow with room for CCB development. That remark about CCB development implies by this evening's run we may looking at another uptick in QPF ? And continuation of a NW trend on most models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just take a look at the changes aloft, all you really need to see. Precipitation shield adjusted NW as well and more spacing/less compressed flow with room for CCB development. Yea good point Earth. Reminds me of the last storm where the GFS made the upper air changes but the surface took a few run to reflect it. Lets see if it holds at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 54 steady snow into NYC http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The only hope I'm holding for NW NJ is the 1/2 system. About this far out (New Years Eve) the Euro had squat for this area and eventually came NW. Still think, if anything and despite the changes aloft, this one is for close to the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 700mb temp minus 14 to minus 18 Look for 15 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 according to the GFS and with 20:1 ratios the GFS snowfall should dump 3 - 5 inches in the immediate Metro 3 - the northwest part of immediate metro and 5 southeast part question now is when Upton is going to take the bait since this solution should hold at least this strong up until the event http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011918/gfs_apcpn_us_19.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 This is exactly what you want to see, trending in the right direction as the event closes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Remember, it isn't just temps that matter in rates, it is lift UVVS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 700mb temp minus 14 to minus 18 Look for 15 to 1 ratios I had 7:1 ratios during the Jan 3rd event despite bitter cold temps. I'm no ratio expert, but I would bet there is more to it than just the temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I had 7:1 ratios during the Jan 3rd event despite bitter cold temps. I'm no ratio expert, but I would bet there is more to it than just the temps aloft. You need good UVVs, which is why NJ is in prime condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Given the radical changes aloft, I expect this to keep trending tonight. Could things fall apart and trend the other way, perhaps but just going off of past history the models don't just stop changing when a different scenario (changes aloft) has now come on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 A bit of perspective, 18z GFS from yesterday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011818/gfs_apcpn_us_35.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You need good UVVs, which is why NJ is in prime condition. I think NJ is sitting pretty good right now all things considered. Besides the trend being our friend at the moment, most storms that produce for us tend to "pop out of nowhere" if you will. That's why i never understood the point of tracking storms over 100 hours out, or being excited about models showing a storm hitting us at hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not all on this image (some develop earlier/later) but you can see a pretty good amount of SREF members showing expansive banding in NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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