Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That is far from KU status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 .50 may not b a KU , but with temps down towards 10 and this system deepening so fast , winds w Could b an issue accross Long Island and into southern New England , so in those places You could b evolving towards a B solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Trend is still in our direction, looking good. As Earth mentioned earlier they usually over correct and then back off some what as we get closer but this trend is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The overall setup is looking better and better. This is starting to look like a classic SECS. No chance to be a MECS, but maybe 4-8" from DC to Boston if things continue to improve. The arrow in the map shows our pseudo 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That is far from KU status. I think most people here understand that. Or at least I would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On the SREF maps, where there is yellow, green, and blues around the base of the trough, what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 KBLM . 58 up from . 32. Very nice jump for Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The ARW from 21z is only out on the West Coast domain but you can already see the shortwave on the eastern periphery of the west coast ridge is more energetic and amplified, swinging all the way back into Montana. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMWEST_0z/f33.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On the SREF maps, where there is yellow, green, and blues around the base of the trough, what does that mean? The spread in the h5 vort is presented there, and its nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On the SREF maps, where there is yellow, green, and blues around the base of the trough, what does that mean? That is the spread amongst members, so the map is showing there is a large spread near the trough base on the members of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 They are very nice, but often is the case, ratios are over rated. We rarely exceed 13/1 in these parts and when we do they are from clippers not coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 They are very nice, but often is the case, ratios are over rated. We rarely exceed 13/1 in these parts and when we do they are from clippers not coastals. A met. on the Philly forum made a post about ratios. Basically from what I can remember its not just the temps, it is the lift. You're going to get better ratios with cold temps & good UVVs. So if we can get into that we'd be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The ARW from 21z is only out on the West Coast domain but you can already see the shortwave on the eastern periphery of the west coast ridge is more energetic and amplified, swinging all the way back into Montana. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMWEST_0z/f33.gif Can you post the East Coast domain when it comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A met. on the Philly forum made a post about ratios. Basically from what I can remember its not just the temps, it is the lift. You're going to get better ratios with cold temps & good UVVs. So if we can get into that we'd be good.The UVV's do look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 KISP . 68 KFOK .75 To get an idea where that boundary is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 0.25"+ line shifted 50+ miles NW on the 21z SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Earthlight and all, any analogs that we can look at that mirror this? A clipper modeled offshore that ticked back NW like this late in the game? I recall one around 2005 that was on a weekend that surprisingly over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 0.25"+ line shifted 50+ miles NW on the 21z SREF mean. If the nam follows suit that would but the heavier 18z bands over the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is this for tuesday morning or evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A met. on the Philly forum made a post about ratios. Basically from what I can remember its not just the temps, it is the lift. You're going to get better ratios with cold temps & good UVVs. So if we can get into that we'd be good. You want 700mb temps below -5 to -8C but also want low winds at the surface and the correct omega coinciding with snow growth, the event a few weeks ago where we thought we'd be 15-20 to 1 we were closer to 12 to 1 largely because the winds were quite strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Earthlight and all, any analogs that we can look at that mirror this? A clipper modeled offshore that ticked back NW like this late in the game? I recall one around 2005 that was on a weekend that surprisingly over performed. The rain/snow we had this weekend had a decent tick west in the last 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lets not get our expectations or hopes up too high just yet. As I mentioned earlier the SREFs are still out of their best range and don't have any new ingested data from the evening. So I think it would be smart to wait for the newer runs or the NAM and GFS before we assume a NW trend will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Earthlight and all, any analogs that we can look at that mirror this? A clipper modeled offshore that ticked back NW like this late in the game? I recall one around 2005 that was on a weekend that surprisingly over performed. This is more of a hybrid now that forecast guidance is digging the vortmax so far south. Much more amplification now. But no analogs come to mind directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is more of a hybrid now that forecast guidance is digging the vortmax so far south. Much more amplification now. But no analogs come to mind directly.In my head, most similar events always blow up for Long Island and Cape Cod and are excruciatingly close to NYC and West... I'm only leaning with that solution because of mental history but this seems a different animal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think some of the members might be on Drugs lol... But The 700mbs are colder than the last storm so I guess it is factoring that in. - If you take out the crazy members the mean would be closers to 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sref mean now 13.74" at ISP, 3 members now near 30" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Plumes are out. Means: EWR - 10" PHL - 12.5" BLM - 12" LGA/JFK - 10-10.5" ISP-13.5" BDR - 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Early look at the NAM, but it is not quite as energetic with the vortmax crossing the international border at 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Whoa NAM has the shortwave entering the CONUS even farther W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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