BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Could Keep trending better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 That's not the one I created. Glad to hear that. I found your post, but it took quite a bit of navigating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 SREF are pretty amped... .25 line bumped west. ARW members are amped up and usually unreliable, but they were the only ones showing the amped solutions for yesterday while all other models were showing nothing. Something to keep in mind I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is quite a bit NW of the operational run with both the low pressure center and moreso with the snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 SREF plumes show near 6 inches for LGA. Yeah, one member is 25+" so take that into account too. Still pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is quite a bit NW of the operational run with both the low pressure center and moreso with the snow shield. The coastal low track is still well offshore. But they did bump NW of the 00z run form last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Nam looks better with the vort, and the western ridge @ 36.....unless I'm seeing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Glad to hear that. I found your post, but it took quite a bit of navigating. Sorry about that. To make it easier look for NYC metro in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Want to see a dramatic 6 hour change in a forecast model? Compare the 36 hour NAM on the 18z run to the 12z run at 42 hours. Pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Nam looks better with the vort, and the western ridge @ 36.....unless I'm seeing things No, you're not. It is a completely different evolution now through 42hours. It may not be a big hit, but much more potential for it to be amped up this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 15z SREF mean now has the 0.25 inch contour over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Guys it is the nam, which had nothing for sne at 00z before they got 3-6. Take it with a grain of salt Hr 48 light snow to ttn. Dca/Balt getting steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Guys it is the nam, which had nothing for sne at 00z before they got 3-6. Take it with a grain of salt Hr 48 light snow to ttn. Dca/Balt getting steady snow There's a difference between taking the run literally and acknowledging the changes which are occurring with the evolution of the system aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 51 light snow to NYC and steady to ttn. Heavy snow over Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Step 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 54 is a New Jersey shore snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 CCB sitting right offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Step2 lol . nice difference from its 6z then its 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You are talking about a cough West , and this is area wide . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Guys Look At H5 And The Changes Are Dramatic. Another Shift West And We Have A Nic SS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 There's a difference between taking the run literally and acknowledging the changes which are occurring with the evolution of the system aloft. Do you think we have reach a consensus of a brush? Or a advisory type storm could be possible for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What is interesting is how literally I talked about this possibility two weeks ago. Why on earth is it that sometimes the models can see these things two weeks out, then lose them, then bring it back 2 days out. What the heck is it? I wish someone could explain. It would be one thing if it happened once, but it simply happens nearly all the time with the big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What is interesting is how literally I talked about this possibility two weeks ago. Why on earth is it that sometimes the models can see these things two weeks out, then lose them, then bring it back 2 days out. What the heck is it? I wish someone could explain. It would be one thing if it happened once, but it simply happens nearly all the time with the big storms. Uhh, differential equations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Ratios have potential to be fantastic, probably 20:1. I would think the NAM depicts ~4" of snow for NYC. But, it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Happy to be in the SE portion of the area for once. Feb 5/6 10 pulled off a few inches in long beach when the rest of the area got zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I wish there was just a bit more time as we could all win, including us in NW sections, but think its too close for area wide. That said, rooting for those south and east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Really surprised in the radical change the Nam made, and I'm not sure if I buy it quite yet until other models come around but this is definitely trending more favorably for us. If the Nam were to trend any better, we'd have a SECS on our hands. Not to mention this is cold system, probably upper teens/low 20s when it's snowing so ratios could be up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 This moved 200 miles nw in 6 hours....still have 2 days to go....no one is out of it yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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