rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 They can actually be quite different sometimes given their resolution gap. only reason i ask is because i have an animated version and its always the same through hr 48. regm stops at 48 than once 1130 passes the other hrs come in hr by hr http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I will praise the day when people stop posting TV mets forecasts in a discussion thread. Completely irrelevant and useless information. i always tell people their forecast are like reading yesterdays newspapers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 i always tell people their forecast are like reading yesterdays newspapers Sure, if you watch the lousy ones. But not if you watch the really good ones like Nick Gregory, Craig Allen or Lee Goldberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sure, if you watch the lousy ones. But not if you watch the really good ones like Nick Gregory, Craig Allen or Lee Goldberg. i dont watch any, no need to when i and all of u get all the same info they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I will praise the day when people stop posting TV mets forecasts in a discussion thread. Completely irrelevant and useless information.Useless as far as forecasting, but interesting as to what information the general public is receiving, in contrast to the trends us "smarts" are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 i dont watch any, no need to when i and all of u get all the same info they do Exactly. They don't have any more updated information than we do. With that said Jeff smith is on crack saying only a coating to an inch and that's for everyone except eastern LI. That would be based on the nam only at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, I always enjoy times like these....when you go to bed and the forecast out is snow showers a coating to an inch....and might wake up to the news reporting a "WINTER BLAST"... Lol or in this case "RETURN OF THE POLAR VORTEX, AND WITH IT, SNOW" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 00z GFS has to be one of the coldest runs inside 192 hours for NYC, ever. It's insane!!! If anything close to that verifies, lows could be flirting with single digits for much of the next week, and we could actually get below zero if snowcover is present. The cold before truncation is extremely impressive, and we have a real snowpack to boot... Don Sutherland's stats had indicated a snowy season was likely after December's data came in, and it looks like this will just be one of those winters where snow/cold tend to prevail, with snow threats seemingly appearing out of nowhere. We may have to wait for (another) KU, but even this upcoming storm could deliver 6"+ to a wide area, perfectly timed with the upcoming cold shot. That should translate into this upcoming cold shot... which may be much more severe than the previous one, where we had no snow. I really think NYC could drop below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 They can actually be quite different sometimes given their resolution gap. On the collaboration site the GGEM actually looked like a pretty good continuation to the RGEM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GEFs support the OP, even a tad more robust possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 i dont watch any, no need to when i and all of u get all the same info they do Me too, since I look at models on the internet now. But it was different when I was a kid growing up. Then I would have to rely on a really good forecaster. Sometimes Nick Gregory would actually be out of breath on air, from running so he would have info from the very latest computer model before going on air. I really appreciated that kind of dedication. That's why I just wanted to make the point that not all on air mets just give you old information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ok, so if everything goes right, WSW for NYC/LI, the second blizzard warning for Long Island this month? Can KNYC break the +4 low of earlier this month or the daytime high of +9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 i always tell people their forecast are like reading yesterdays newspapers I would think that knowledgable posters bringing to light how a TV met is behind the curve...is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ok, so if everything goes right, WSW for NYC/LI, the second blizzard warning for Long Island this month? Can KNYC break the +4 low of earlier this month or the daytime high of +9? I was just about say that, looks like another 9-12 inch event for LI with blizzard watch possibly issued in fifteen hours a possibility. I think we will have to wait another 10 plus years for another period as good as the next 10-15 days coming up. NYC has a -2 F in the next ten days for a low and a +8 F degree high. My guess. I think we stay moderately to severely cold wire to wire through mid March and then go straight to markedly warm alternating w/ backdoor misery as the -EPO snaps to neutral to positive in 8-12 weeks. Developing weak El Nino w/ Greenland blocking gives a miserable drizzly spring to the NE coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nick Gregory had a very good mentor Joe De'leo ,he taught him as a college student. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GEFS are well northwest of the 18z run... 0.50" to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I am not seeing tightly packed isotherms to indicate the winds would meet blizzard criteria! Blizzard Warning Issued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I am not seeing tightly packed isotherms to indicate the winds would meet blizzard criteria! Blizzard Warning Issued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours That may so, but near blizzard conditions are possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I am not seeing tightly packed isotherms to indicate the winds would meet blizzard criteria! Blizzard Warning Issued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours Near a foot for eastern Nassau and Suffolk is looking very real now. 70 percent chance, per my look at the latest models. A repeat of the 1/3 storm it seems, with double digit snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I doubt blizzard watches will be warranted. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So can anyone project the ETA of the first flakes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I knew this storm had potential and models are finally realizing that. A plow able snowfall is a significant possibility and the chance of a widespread SECS has greatly increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I knew this storm had potential and models are finally realizing that. A plow able snowfall is a significant possibility and the chance of a widespread SECS has greatly increased. snow up to our knees, and hoodies down to our knees. Get the snowboards ready folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Quite the turn of events. It will catch a lot of people off guard (me especially), NWS has us still at a chance of snow showers on Tuesday!! Hopefully this can be a fun event. Given the progressiveness of the pattern I'm still expecting little but hopefully it can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I would like to see the Euro close to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Start time for NYC/LI if this plays out right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, it's better than the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ECM not buying it yet so it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Better than the nam, better than 12z run, a little mlre amped and a tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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