Rdd9108 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Does western and central PA benefit from this pattern we are in. Seems like central PA is in a good spot especially if theres coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Blocking pattern looks to set up for the end of the month. I see a few good snow threats and another wicked cold shot in the next 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Sneaky coastal on the Euro today around hour 114-126 on the front end of a reinforcing shot of cold air for the weekend. Delivers a light to moderate snowfall with plenty of cold around. The highly amplified pattern certainly argues for some kind of weather response on the east coast with a monster +PNA developing this week and pretty decent positioning of the ridge axis. The big amplification via that teleconnection is important, since the Atlantic continues to be uncooperative and we have a fairly quiet southern stream. Whether it happens remains to be seen, as today's Euro is the first time i've seen any model suggest any kind of a bigger event in this timeframe. This does seem to be the kind of pattern where you might not see the smaller scale light-moderate events show up with any consistency until a few days out. I'd keep an eye on Tues night into Wednesday as well for another possible light snowfall. One thing for sure is that it does appear that it will generally remain cold for at least the next couple weeks in spite of what the GFS/GEFS had been trying to pull several days ago. Definitely something to watch. As of now, only one member of the GFS ensemble brings the 500 mb trough as far south and as sharp as the 12z Euro, allowing for enough amplification for the storm to track over the coastal plain. Here are the top analogs based on the 12z Euro ensemble mean day 10 forecast of 500 mb heights. The composite mean of those dates gives a negative surface temperature anomaly pattern for much of PA. This pattern continues in the composite rolled forward five days (shown below) as well as the one rolled forward 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 18 years ago today apparently a lot of snow hit Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 CTP picking up on the midweek snowfall potential. I mentioned it in my previous post as Tues night into Wednesday.. it's actually more later Wednesday. Hasn't been much on the main NAM, but the last couple SREF runs have really ramped up snow probs in C-PA. 21z SREF snow probs at hr 69 SOME CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE /LATE WED INTO THURSDAY/...18Z/00Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND 15-21Z SREF HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THECOAST AND ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS UPPER/SFC LOW...COMPARED TOTHE 12Z EC AND 18Z GFS. 21Z SREF MEAN SNOWFALL /DERIVED FROM 50-60PERCENT OF ITS MEMBERS THAT ARE DISPLAYING THE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW/CONVEYS SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS /AND IS FURTHER WEST/ THAN THE00Z NAM AND 12Z EC. 18Z GFS OCCUPIES THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOMELIGHT SNOW WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURS...MAINLY OVER SCENT PENN ANDTHE SUSQ VALLEY.WEAK SURFACE RIDGING RETURNS THU/THU NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW AGAINTURNS MORE W/SW AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE AGAIN DIGGING THE TROUGHINTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO SHOW MOREDIVERGENCE FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. BUT THAT ORGANIZING SURGE OFCOLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY NEXTWEEKEND AS TROUGH AGAIN ENTRENCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST. BOTH EC ANDGFS SPIN UP A BIT OF A LOW ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH GFSMUCH FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH AND EC FORECASTING POTENTIAL FOR ASHOT OF SNOW. WITH SUCH DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS...WILL NUDGE POPSUPWARD A BIT BUT STAY THE COARSE FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 what happened to showers? 42 and heavy rain. I know there was concern of the Swatara Creek and flooding, this won't help. And last night i got to see the Susky when driving through Wormleysburg, there is alot of ice jammed up down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 CTP picking up on the midweek snowfall potential. I mentioned it in my previous post as Tues night into Wednesday.. it's actually more later Wednesday. Hasn't been much on the main NAM, but the last couple SREF runs have really ramped up snow probs in C-PA. 21z SREF snow probs at hr 69 f12s69.gif We really look good for the second half of the month for colder and snowier overall. Probably not the big storms (I think we get our shot in Feb, what do you think?) but seems like things will move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just like that, overnight, the river is basically void of ice. Crazy. It looks wicked cool today with the steam coming up off it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just like that, overnight, the river is basically void of ice. Crazy. It looks wicked cool today with the steam coming up off it. While driving across the turnpike bridge yesterday, I noticed that the north side was jammed with ice while the south side was clear for roughly half a mile. I didn't realize how much those columns can restrict flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 what happened to showers? 42 and heavy rain. I know there was concern of the Swatara Creek and flooding, this won't help. And last night i got to see the Susky when driving through Wormleysburg, there is alot of ice jammed up down there. Flood warning up for the Swatty now. Really getting pumped for snow chances in the coming weeks. Models look cold and stormy moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The many moods of the Susquehanna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The many moods of the Susquehanna. Awesome view. I don't even have a window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The many moods of the Susquehanna. Great photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Awesome photo, Canderson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The many moods of the Susquehanna. Love it. River fog can paint so many great pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That angle is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Canderson nice pictures!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Thanks, everyone. I wasn't a river guy until the past few years but the Susquehanna keeps throwing out amazing scenes you can't but not celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The CFS was the lone hold out on the long range models for a cold Feb, and finally it just said OKAY OKAY ENOUGH! COLD AND SNOWY FEB! I GIVE IN! http://phillywx.com/forum/medium-and-long-range-discussion/7409-february-discussion?_=1389739619032 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 anyone out and about run into the super thick fog? I crossed the bridge over 81 and it was like I drove right into a cloud... couldnt see more than a few feet in front of me going through enola... then going back up over 81 suddenly clear again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 anyone out and about run into the super thick fog? I crossed the bridge over 81 and it was like I drove right into a cloud... couldnt see more than a few feet in front of me going through enola... then going back up over 81 suddenly clear again Yep. Heavy fog on 283 from Middletown to Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I can't see a block down the road, I can't make out the roof of our neighbors even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I can't see a block down the road, I can't make out the roof of our neighbors even. Not surprised at this...we don't have much fog but the side streets in my town are slick: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1033 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-150630-ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-1033 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014...SLIPPERY ROADWAYS DUE TO BLACK ICE AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOGOVERNIGHT...MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION DRIVING THROUGHOUT CENTRALPENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...AS CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR BLACK ICE TOFORM. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY CREATE LOCAL ICYSPOTS. THE RECENT MILD WEATHER AND RAINFALL HAVE WASHED ANY EXISTINGSALT TREATMENTS FROM ROADWAYS...MAKING THEM PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLETO ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.LAT...LON 3971 7939 3990 7941 4072 7881 4113 7881 4122 7872 4137 7897 4134 7910 4162 7897 4163 7962 4200 7961 4200 7693 4160 7687 4155 7622 4121 7632 4096 7621 4074 7576 4057 7601 4049 7643 4014 7587 3973 7609 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 28.6 and freezing fog this morning. Awful conditions in my neighborhood, streets were a sheet of ice. It's bad enough trying to drive on black ice, it's also bad driving in dense fog...this morning I had both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This fog's extremely dangerous. And quite icy in spots this morning. Advisory continued until 1 p.m. here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 83S was a parking lot this morning. It took me an hour to drive what normally takes 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 83S was a parking lot this morning. It took me an hour to drive what normally takes 20 minutes. Was pretty bad for me too - mainly because there was a tractor trailer in a ditch near Belfast road that everyone had to stop and stare at (at least when I went through the area after 7). No freezing fog at my house though, temp hovered right at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Was pretty bad for me too - mainly because there was a tractor trailer in a ditch near Belfast road that everyone had to stop and stare at (at least when I went through the area after 7). No freezing fog at my house though, temp hovered right at 33 It was there on my way through as well. The problems, for me, began right after the Mason Dixon line. Traffic slowed to 20 mph max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It was there on my way through as well. The problems, for me, began right after the Mason Dixon line. Traffic slowed to 20 mph max. It was backed up like that when I left the house, so I heard on the radio. I usually have some traffic when I leave, but not until after middletown road... I knew it was going to be a long drive to work when I was sitting on the exit to get ONTO 83 waiting as it was bumper to bumper before York Road. Not as bad as yesterday though, hour plus commute yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Surprised to see fog persisting across parts of the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.