RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/ Nice post by a very knowledgeable met. Cold as far as the eye can see. Does mention the potential for the southeast ridge bringing a somewhat warmer outcome for parts of the east, but a nice southeast ridge combined with continuous cold air discharges will likely be a good pattern for many in the subforum. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Angrysummons, did a weather model bully you, when you were a child? Fantasy land garbage most likely, but sweet thermal gradient on the 12z Euro at 240 hours. 1:24 12z euro 240.gif Yeah I'd take that. Would be a change from this moisture starved Clipper pattern. The West starts sharing our cold weather by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Something brewin' on the GFS....and it's pre-truncation*! I know in the end I'm not getting squat from it but it'd be nice to track again. These clippers ain't cutting it. * barely pre-truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 looks like the GFS tries to get a storm going a week out. One with some gulf connection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Something brewin' on the GFS....and it's pre-truncation*! I know in the end I'm not getting squat from it but it'd be nice to track again. These clippers ain't cutting it. * barely pre-truncation. Way too early to get really concerned about it but icy run for LAF. And coming off of an extreme cold spell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 looks like the GFS tries to get a storm going a week out. One with some gulf connection.. Yup. That one Euro has as well. I think that could be a nice storm if everything works out of course.. Let's get a GHD repeat LOL, with the heaviest snow across S/E Michigan of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like the retrograde of the large western US/AK ridge and subsequent attempt at troughing over the west...and a much wetter pattern for the sub-forum...is still being shown on the models. The 12z GFS/Euro definitely show lower heights in the mid-long range over the western US and the Canadian kind of does. The 12z Euro hinted at a possible wintry mix over the Ohio Valley next weekend and the 0z GFS also showed a couple of opportunities. All three models keep the PV in the vicinity, so there'd probably be some dense low level cold air to play with. I do lots of driving over eastern OH next weekend which ensures most locations north of the Ohio River should see some kind of frozen precipitation at some point next weekend...with the most likely days to see it being Friday and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL, well Euro at hour 192 brings in a very nice system to most of O/V and G/L, however there will be the lack of cold air with a big rain event for most of the O/V even S/Mi could have mixing issues....one run tho..good news is we finally have something bigger to watch, and lots will change... Last couple of weeks have been a bunch of grinding clippers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL, well Euro at hour 192 brings in a very nice system to most of O/V and G/L, however there will be the lack of cold air with a big rain event for most of the O/V even S/Mi could have mixing issues....one run tho..good news is we finally have something bigger to watch, and lots will change... Last couple of weeks have been a bunch of grinding clippers.. Lol at you saying lack of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Lol at you saying lack of cold air LOL, well after all this PV crap we went thru, it's like SMH lol. it can happen tho. In early January we had that major snow storm (14"), with temps that went down to -15+ in S/E Michigan, 3 days after the snow storm a major rain storm hit us with temps in the 40s, and almost all the snow melted.. So yeah snow/rinse/repeat pattern I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL, well after all this PV crap we went thru, it's like SMH lol. it can happen tho. In early January we had that major snow storm (14"), with temps that went down to -15+ in S/E Michigan, 3 days after the snow storm a major rain storm hit us with temps in the 40s, and almost all the snow melted.. So yeah snow/rinse/repeat pattern I guess.. Verbatim EURO is actually an ice storm for SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Verbatim EURO is actually an ice storm for SEMI. This is still far out... so w/e.. Good news is all models are showing some kind of system next week...Lets hope for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL, well Euro at hour 192 brings in a very nice system to most of O/V and G/L, however there will be the lack of cold air with a big rain event for most of the O/V even S/Mi could have mixing issues....one run tho..good news is we finally have something bigger to watch, and lots will change... Last couple of weeks have been a bunch of grinding clippers.. What I will say is with no real -NAO or 50/50 low, a track farther NW, possibly even into OH, is certainly on the table starting next weekend. BUT, the op Euro was way more aggressive than the 0z Canadian, 0z GFS, 0z GFS ensembles and 12z Euro ensembles in pulling the PV north in the extended range. With such a large PV in place and nothing to force it north I'd go with the solutions that keep it farther south longer over the 0z Euro. This would make it hard for a low to track farther north than say I-70 in Ohio next weekend...and would also keep filtering in low level cold from the north. Also, the flow is shown to be rather fast and zonal across the eastern US next weekend which argues against a storm coming in with a significant northerly motion. Normally I can't stand the "well it's really cold ahead of the storm, so it track be farther south than the models show" argument but in this instance with cold still filtering in from the north as the possible storm rides by...and with a large PV being the source of this cold...there is some merit to the idea in this instance. This setup favors ice somewhere. Long story short I don't by the 0z Euro idea of bringing rain next weekend all the way up to Lake Erie. Taking a cursory glance past next weekend, there seems to be better support for the PV weakening/shifting NW a tad...and a trough trying to develop over the west. So once we get a few days into February a stronger storm that cuts farther NW and brings warmth maybe even to Detroit is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Agree with OHweather's thoughts. Looks like the SE ridge is gonna flex it's muscles, as well as the PV retreating a bit north...for the first week or so of February. The first system probably has some wintry potential. 0z Euro ensemble mean is a bit colder than the op run...but subsequent systems may turn warm and wet. Might be time for the "less snowy" central and northern Plains/western upper Midwest to start cashing in on some snow/wintry precip. We'll see where it goes thereafter. Ensembles bring the cold back later, so it may be time for the roller coaster to resume...but I suppose that may increase the chance for storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL at the 6z GFS...LIterally countless significant waves/storms for 230 hours haha....parade starts at 150 hours>.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Agree with OHweather's thoughts. Looks like the SE ridge is gonna flex it's muscles, as well as the PV retreating a bit north...for the first week or so of February. The first system probably has some wintry potential. 0z Euro ensemble mean is a bit colder than the op run...but subsequent systems may turn warm and wet. Might be time for the "less snowy" central and northern Plains/western upper Midwest to start cashing in on some snow/wintry precip. We'll see where it goes thereafter. Ensembles bring the cold back later, so it may be time for the roller coaster to resume...but I suppose that may increase the chance for storminess. The thing to watch also is when these 2 air masses clash, someone along that boundary is going to pick up copious amounts of liquid. Maybe not to the magnitude we had back in December but the pattern is a bit similar to that pattern with waves riding the boundary, the difference this time being the air mass in place is going to be colder than the one back in December and we saw the ice problems we had back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The thing to watch also is when these 2 air masses clash, someone along that boundary is going to pick up copious amounts of liquid. Maybe not to the magnitude we had back in December but the pattern is a bit similar to that pattern with waves riding the boundary, the difference this time being the air mass in place is going to be colder than the one back in December and we saw the ice problems we had back then. Most definitely. For example, the 0z GEFS might be too cold in general, but they get pretty wet in the medium and long range. The wet part definitely looks legit...and the cold will be close for most of us. Just a matter of timing it all out, but there may be some ups and downs along the way at times. Big storm potential is probably on the increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Day in and day out the CFS has remained steadfast on a brutal cold February. Precip has oscillated more, but wet has been the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 woke up, looped the gfs....not bad super boring/cold period is gonna happen but still looks like we mix it up after a week or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Recent Euro runs are promising for those of us farther sw that keep missing out on most of the clipper snow. Over the mid to late period the trough gradually shifts to the western US. It shows pieces of energy being spit out over the upper midwest, each dropping some light accumulating snow on Iowa. One problem is most of the moisture gets hung up along the surface front well to the south and east, so these upper level disturbances don't have a lot to work with. Still, a trough-west/ridge-east pattern would have potential for something bigger, and it would be better than what we are getting now, which is not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 La-la land, but the 12z Euro at 240 is pretty cool looking...again. Not sure I've seen the east-west 850 degree lines across the country like that before. Canada is just a deep reservoir of cold, from almost coast to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 La-la land, but the 12z Euro at 240 is pretty cool looking...again. Not sure I've seen the east-west 850 degree lines across the country like that before. Canada is just a deep reservoir of cold, from almost coast to coast. 1:25 12z Euro 240.gif decent-ish open gulf (been a long time since i've typed gulf) as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 La-la land, but the 12z Euro at 240 is pretty cool looking...again. Not sure I've seen the east-west 850 degree lines across the country like that before. Canada is just a deep reservoir of cold, from almost coast to coast. 1:25 12z Euro 240.gif Pretty good agreement on a trough developing in the west next weekend with a large amount of cold to our north. The GFS, Euro and Canadian all show something next weekend with the GFS/Euro suggesting mixing could get north of the Ohio River. The pattern thereafter looks to favor more storminess and at least some threat for ice. Could get interesting. We aren't chasing snow records in central or eastern Ohio, so I'd be ok with ice if it means not getting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 La-la land, but the 12z Euro at 240 is pretty cool looking...again. Not sure I've seen the east-west 850 degree lines across the country like that before. Canada is just a deep reservoir of cold, from almost coast to coast. Nice southeast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z gfs looks good for southern lower Michigan for the feb1-2 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z gfs looks good for southern lower Michigan for the feb1-2 storm its a beaut clark! usually see the gfs wit lil se bias so just hope there's enough cold air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z gfs looks good for southern lower Michigan for the feb1-2 storm It looks decent for Chicago, Detroit and Toronto in fact. Widespread 6-10" storm. The 18z GFS is the first run to show it though (not to mention how impossible it seems to get a storm like that with a track like that as of late), so it's more than likely a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 First 5 days of February GFS anomaly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like marginal temps in the far S and SE parts of the LOT CWA for this one, on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NAEFS is disgusting.... this blows. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014012512_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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