Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snowdepth at Pearson and downtown is 2". Places all around us are getting bombed with snow. We've had more total snow obviously, but wrt to us being in a relative screwhole, 2009-10 does seem to fit nicely. This December was much better than that of 2009 which I believe had a green Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 There is nothing to be taken with a grain of salt more than the CFS, but its just interesting to note that the latest for Feb is temps way below normal and precip way above normal. This winter may, locally at least, take 1977-78, 1981-82, and 2010-11 to the woodshed for snow+cold if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A few more ALEC Zzzz's and were golden..... ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Holy cold 12Z GFS for MI!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A few more ALEC Zzzz's and were golden..... ^^ I might see if he sells those "zzzzz". When Alec posts a "zzzzz" he is usually good for 6" + within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAEFS continues with the same pattern in the long range: I'll side with the EURO in beyond Day 10. Our daylight is increasing... it has to feel better outside eventually! lol We will get some sort of pattern shift with the way the PNA is going. Absolutely looking to tank now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Purely entertainment...and not to be trusted at all. Repeating...not...at...all. Alas... ...here's today's CFS for February. A weenie can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Oh man, one of the biggest of big dogs is in play if that's close to being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Purely entertainment...and not to be trusted at all. Repeating...not...at...all. Alas... ...here's today's CFS for February. A weenie can dream. 1:21 cfs temps.gif 1:21 cfs precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Oh man, one of the biggest of big dogs is in play if that's close to being correct. Not that I check it much, but it's by far the weeniest single run I've ever seen from it. Almost off the chart cold and wet...I mean come on. But yeah, the snowfall record for here is toast if that verifies. Like I said, one can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not that I check it much, but it's by far the weeniest single run I've ever seen from it. Almost off the chart cold and wet...I mean come on. But yeah, the snowfall record for here is toast if that verifies. Like I said, one can dream. I don't look at it often either but yeah, that's as weenie a run as i can remember seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Brett Anderson's latest update shows it cold all the way through Mid-Feb now.. FWIW http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/maritimes-snowstorm-and-long-range-update/22329715 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 CFS is almost getting into its range where its following month outlooks are decent. If it's still showing something like that over the next several days, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't think I can recall a time when JB is in disbelief of the extremes he's seeing in the models. Referring to the Canadian and GFS ensembles: Remember last week when I called what was coming the last 10 days of the month "crisis cold" Well this outdoes it.. 16 days, incomprehensible cold ( I dont believe it can be this cold this long in the east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 models still have not gotten the -PNA message. they just aren't listening to you... ...damn it's cold out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 lol^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Purely entertainment...and not to be trusted at all. Repeating...not...at...all. Alas... ...here's today's CFS for February. A weenie can dream. 1:21 cfs temps.gif 1:21 cfs precip.gif Doesn't get much better than this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 maybe, but they still show a weak-moderate pna signature even though the ensembles show a -pna developing. something isn't firing right in the sampling imo. The polar flow should be lifting north by 29th with a trough developing in the west. Yeah that's definitely facts. Seeing some indications of a western trough on the 0z EURO - I believe I saw. By 300 hours - SE ridge. 12z GFS had the ridge pushing further east into the continental US. Models are going to be a mess for awhile I think. No thanks to the CFS. This time next week I'll be ready for spring indefinitely.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 maybe, but they still show a weak-moderate pna signature even though the ensembles show a -pna developing. something isn't firing right in the sampling imo. The polar flow should be lifting north by 29th with a trough developing in the west. We had a largely negative PNA November-about the 3rd week of December. It was also more or less neutral to only slightly positive during the last major outbreak. Yet the winter has largely been far more cold than not, so not sure why a -PNA means there won't be a cold outbreak the last 10 days of the month, especially when the PNA looks be positive until the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We have water mains here in La Crosse blowing out...i guess the cold was freezing them and the thawing temps have made them crack. So they've had to close down lanes to rip apart the streets. NWS La Crosse seems to buy into the cold Feb http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=99813&source=0 Until the NAEFS starts showing some changes, i'm riding the cold train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This December was much better than that of 2009 which I believe had a green Christmas. You're missing the forest for the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 right, but that was because there was a huge -EPO.........which won't be there this time in that size imo. Models love to overamp pac ridging and this causes disorganization late into truncation. Notice a few "changes" and you get a downstream western trough with a -epo and flat ridge over the east. To me, the pattern is changed by the 30th. Which is the point and my point against Bustardi. The suppressed, clipper pattern says adios. Oh really? ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png And believe me i want the +PNA to relax a bit as well ( help bring the storm track/more action back up this way ) but if it does it does not mean the cold is going anywhere either NOT with the -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If Feb. verifies this cold and wet just think of the eventual flooding when spring rains do come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 You're missing the forest for the trees. Essentially, I would rather have snow on the ground throughout the winter than have bare ground most of the time and one or two big snowfalls that melt three days later, which is what tends to happen down in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Essentially, I would rather have snow on the ground throughout the winter than have bare ground most of the time and one or two big snowfalls that melt three days later, which is what tends to happen down in the Mid Atlantic. Ok, fair enough. What factors people take into consideration when judging whether a winter is good or bad will vary. My point is that the fact that we're in a snowfall minima for the region is reminiscent of 2009-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 How much for Edmonton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Ok, fair enough. What factors people take into consideration when judging whether a winter is good or bad will vary. My point is that the fact that we're in a snowfall minima for the region is reminiscent of 2009-10. Cool. How much for Edmonton? Edmonton is experiencing a torch...by their standards, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 How much for Edmonton? 39.8" last time I checked. Snowy Nov-Dec but PNA ridge flexing its muscle has put an end to all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 39.8" last time I checked. Snowy Nov-Dec but PNA ridge flexing its muscle has put an end to all that. Much better than Toronto plus that PNA ridge isn't going to last forever, things will get going up there probably within the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Much better than Toronto plus that PNA ridge isn't going to last forever, things will get going up there probably within the next 2 weeks. Too bad I don't care about Edmonton snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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